Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BooneWX]

5 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Does anyone have the 12z AI snow and ice totals?

TW

I don’t think the maps are out yet but track and evolution wise, not much has changed from previous runs.

[GaWx]

On 2/2/2025 at 5:56 PM, GaWx said:

On Fri’s Euro Weeklies some of SE was as warm as 7AN for Feb (~normal for Mar). Today that warmest is only ~4AN with that all due to a warm 1st half. Today’s 2nd half has everyone N FL north near or slightly BN last half vs yesterday’s 2nd half being slightly AN everywhere.

Today’s Euro Weeklies for Feb into early Mar reversed back warmer again with Feb now back up to +5 to +6 in much of the SE. The warmest run was last Fri, when some of SE was +7. So, it isn’t quite back to that warm. The coolest run was Sun’s, which was +4 for the warmest in the SE.

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies for Feb into early Mar reversed back warmer again with Feb now back up to +5 to +6 in much of the SE. The warmest run was last Fri, when some of SE was +7. So, it isn’t quite back to that warm.

Not surprising. Betting warm is the safe bet .

[BornAgain13]

12Z AI was another Big Hit for CAD areas, especially on up into VA

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, tarheelwx said:

Does anyone have the 12z AI snow and ice totals?

TW

 The Euro AI shouldn’t be taken seriously as it has become the DGEX weenie model of our time. One weenie run after another often on its own with very heavy sometimes record breaking snow. All it does is to up expectations way higher than reality in many cases.

But since it is circulating, here’s 12Z Euro-AI: not nearly as comical as yesterday’s 18Z, which gave 15-17” in all of NE GA/NW SC, but still very likely way overdone with it further S than 6Z 

 

 

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 The Euro AI shouldn’t be taken seriously as it has become the DGEX weenie model of our time. One weenie run after another often on its own with very heavy sometimes record breaking snow. All it does is to up expectations way higher than reality in many cases.

But since it is circulating, here’s 12Z Euro-AI: not nearly as comical as yesterday’s 18Z, which gave 15-17” in all of NE GA/NW SC, but still very likely way overdone 

 

 

Very likely overdone, but even if u cut these numbers by 75%, it's a significant event. 

[tarheelwx]

Calling it the DGEx?   Ouch!  I’d have to disagree with that one  

TW

[wncsnow]

5 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Calling it the DGEx?   Ouch!  I’d have to disagree with that one  

TW

If its correct with this storm I will call it the new king

[GaWx]

26 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Calling it the DGEx?   Ouch!  I’d have to disagree with that one  

TW

Yeah, on second thought, that may be insulting to the DGEX. I don’t know that the DGEX often forecasted 12-18” over such a large part of the SE while no other model was close.

 I do think that the Euro AI’s 850 mb temps for this storm should be taken with a huge grain of salt. They appear to me to have been too cold on several runs. It also did terribly at the surface for the Jan 10-11 storm. It had warm S winds well up into the SE while there was a low in the N Gulf. That turned out to be wrong, which was predictable based on similar storms’ old wx maps of the past.

[BornAgain13]

18z GFS ICE for next week

[BornAgain13]

18z GFS Snow

[wncsnow]

Bring on spring. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Mid Atlantic looks to be in an amazing spot with this one

[strongwxnc]

Bring on spring. 

Never.



.

[StantonParkHoya]

DC snow winter 

[wncsnow]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Mid Atlantic looks to be in an amazing spot with this one

A lot of the mid Atlantic have had more snow than the NE I think. They have had multiple events. 

[GaWx]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

DC snow winter 

Several NYC forum members are pissed about Mid Atlantic and especially Deep South snow so far this winter because they’re currently below climo. 

[NorthHillsWx]

First 80’s of the year at RDU! Ground temp issues!!! 

[Daniel Boone]

59 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GFS Snow

Hopefully it's too far north. The AI and CMC are. 12Z GFS was. If this is right...what a slap in the face.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies for Feb into early Mar reversed back warmer again with Feb now back up to +5 to +6 in much of the SE. The warmest run was last Fri, when some of SE was +7. So, it isn’t quite back to that warm. The coolest run was Sun’s, which was +4 for the warmest in the SE.

Continues to waver. Having trouble with ENSO and MJO. 

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Continues to waver. Having trouble with ENSO and MJO. 

Climo wins 7/10 times 

[Orange county]

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

First 80’s of the year at RDU! Ground temp issues!!! 

I have 2 inch daffodill sprouts and 25% of my Tulips are half inch sprouts

Garner  NC

[BooneWX]

20 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Climo wins 7/10 times 

MJO wins 9/10. Our perception of climo has been harshly driven by never leaving phases 4-7 for years. 

[NorthHillsWx]

The MA forum is such a happy place right now 

[NorthHillsWx]

44 minutes ago, Orange county said:

I have 2 inch daffodill sprouts and 25% of my Tulips are half inch sprouts

Garner  NC

Your daffodils exceed my snowfall over the last 3 years combined 

[yotaman]

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Bring on spring. 

No! I don't want to have to mow my grass in February.

[NorthHillsWx]

I can’t stand the bring on spring crowd. We live in the south. 9 months out of the year are hot. Let us enjoy whatever cold we can until that arrives. 80 in early February didn’t make me happy today 

[BornAgain13]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I can’t stand the bring on spring crowd. We live in the south. 9 months out of the year are hot. Let us enjoy whatever cold we can until that arrives. 80 in early February didn’t make me happy today 

I agree. Still a lot of winter left. People throw in the towel way to early on this board. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Climo wins 7/10 times 

It didn't in January. Of all the Analogues used for this Winter broken down to the colder one's, from what I can find none had a shift in the PDO from negative to positive like this one. 

      So, as with what happened in January there's a shot at later Feb and March not going as Analogues and Nina Climo indicates. For starter's , we have a formidable STJ of which Nina Climo says there shouldn't be. The  MJO is what to watch regarding the greater anomalous outcome for the SE for the most part imo.. 

[wncsnow]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I can’t stand the bring on spring crowd. We live in the south. 9 months out of the year are hot. Let us enjoy whatever cold we can until that arrives. 80 in early February didn’t make me happy today 

You want 35 and rain 3 times in the next 2 weeks? That's misery.