Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[wncsnow]

Euro is finally running

[BornAgain13]

12z EURO is further North. Big hit for northern VA

[BornAgain13]

12z EURO with a Major ICE Storm for CAD areas.

[wncsnow]

Euro is no bueno for snow lovers

[wncsnow]

Front never really pushes through and gets hung up right over NC. 

[wncsnow]

Euro looks a lot like the GFS. If the EPS trends north it might be over already for NC south. 

[wncsnow]

12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z EURO with a Major ICE Storm for CAD areas.

Its not. Its cold rain outside of higher elevation ice along the Blue Ridge in NC. DC is the big winner (shocker)

[wncsnow]

And more cold rain a few days later on the Euro. At least it will help the drought. 

[wncsnow]

Just an awful Euro run from day 6 onward unless you like cold rain. At least 3 different rain storms in 6-11 day period.  

[BornAgain13]

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Its not. Its cold rain outside of higher elevation ice along the Blue Ridge in NC. DC is the big winner (shocker)

Ummm... still significant icing up this way and into northern nc

[BornAgain13]

@GaWx can show the ZR maps if he has them from the Euro. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Ummm... still significant icing up this way and into northern nc

The way its trending it will be a Lynchburg north storm. More likely to be a flood threat. 

[BornAgain13]

12z EPS still significant for northern NC into VA. Around a 4" mean in S VA

[BornAgain13]

Just now, wncsnow said:

The way its trending it will be a Lynchburg north storm. More likely to be a flood threat. 

12z EPS still solid

[NorthHillsWx]

EURO is how I expect this to go. Step 1: find cold air transport. No model has realistically gotten cold air into NC yet. These fronts spilling south mid storm do not work without substantial blocking and if anything the cold air bleeds in at the ground and CAD areas see ice. Just not a southern snow setup, sorry

[wncsnow]

Euro is a textbook La Nina pattern through 16 days. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Holy schnikes DC gets buried this run

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

@GaWx can show the ZR maps if he has them from the Euro. 

12Z Euro ZR:

[wncsnow]

13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z EPS still significant for northern NC into VA. Around a 4" mean in S VA

Major reduction in WNC..

[GaWx]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Major reduction in WNC..

12Z EPS snow (10:1):

 

[BornAgain13]

Good news is.... still 7 days out!

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z EPS snow (10:1):

 

Compare that to 00Z and its a pretty big step down. 

[BornAgain13]

Go check out some of those hits from the 12z EPS. Still some big ones for parts of NC. 

[NorthHillsWx]

@BornAgain13 You’re going to be fighting an uphill battle with most posters on here but given your location you definitely are in the game. There will always be a ton of IMBY takes but there certainly is a stronger than normal signal your way. South of 85 is not in the game and even triad areas are on the fringe at best with this (at this juncture)

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

@BornAgain13 You’re going to be fighting an uphill battle with most posters on here but given your location you definitely are in the game. There will always be a ton of IMBY takes but there certainly is a stronger than normal signal your way. South of 85 is not in the game and even triad areas are on the fringe at best with this (at this juncture)

Yeah I've thought about that... maybe I shouldn't say as much if it's mainly up this way. I'm kinda stuck in the middle between the SE/MidAtlantic.

[Brick Tamland]

I'd rather take today's weather all month than it get cold and rain or have a minor nuisance event with ice.

[wncsnow]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

I'd rather take today's weather all month than it get cold and rain or have a minor nuisance event with ice.

Exactly. The (cold) rainfall amounts are very heavy for this time of year due to the front stalling out and multiple disturbances coming up from the SW. WNC needs a couple inches of rain but not 5-7+

[BornAgain13]

Now I know this is the high end at 90th percentile but it shows what the storm is capable of

[Upstate Tiger]

7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Now I know this is the high end at 90th percentile but it shows what the storm is capable of

Central Park is going to look a lot different in 10 days than it looks today.  They have at least 3 pretty big events headed their way.

[tarheelwx]

Does anyone have the 12z AI snow and ice totals?

TW