NorthHillsWx Posted Sunday at 09:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:47 PM 17 minutes ago, CaryWx said: zr Super cooled rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Sunday at 10:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:48 PM 18z GFS is a cutter for the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 10:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:56 PM On 1/31/2025 at 5:20 PM, GaWx said: The SE may need a major SSW to help turn things around during the last few days of Feb. But in meantime, today’s Euro Weeklies are even warmer for Feb as a whole with some areas a whopping 7 AN, near the normal for Mar! On Fri’s Euro Weeklies some of SE was as warm as 7AN for Feb (~normal for Mar). Today that warmest is only ~4AN with that all due to a warm 1st half. Today’s 2nd half has everyone N FL north near or slightly BN last half vs yesterday’s 2nd half being slightly AN everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Sunday at 11:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:02 PM 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted Monday at 12:19 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:19 AM Looks like we have something to keep an eye on. If there is a storm I would like at least a couple of inches of snow out of it. I'll pass on any cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 12:21 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:21 AM 1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: That’s crazy. Look at Arctic sea ice. It’s going to blow the record low away, and it’s not going to be remotely close. I know there’s more to ice than just cold, but seeing record Arctic cold corresponding with a loss of sea ice is wild https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted Monday at 12:55 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:55 AM Keep in mind that the oceans aren't just warmed from above. Hoping some of that record cold arctic air makes its way to the Southeastern US to coincide with some moisture! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 02:43 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:43 AM 4 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: That’s crazy. Look at Arctic sea ice. It’s going to blow the record low away, and it’s not going to be remotely close. I know there’s more to ice than just cold, but seeing record Arctic cold corresponding with a loss of sea ice is wild https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today 2 hours ago, tarheelwx said: Keep in mind that the oceans aren't just warmed from above. Hoping some of that record cold arctic air makes its way to the Southeastern US to coincide with some moisture! TW In the interest of honest and open communication and to try to prevent any misinformation from being inadvertently spread, this is what I just posted in the La Niña thread after having just seen this here and initially being confused: —————— The following tweet from “Heinrich Leopold” (tweeted at 3AM today) was posted a little earlier in the SE forum. I haven’t replied yet and just responded with a “confused” reaction. Since then I figured out what the Arctic record lows are (the chart below with the red line). This almost has to be showing stratospheric record lows (quite possibly at 10 mb), which I’d fully believe as I was just noting current near record high 60N zonal mean winds of 61 m/s at 10 mb. Note his “natgas” tag by the way. I then saw this from him: https://x.com/LeopoldHeinrich It says he’s a chemical engineer rather than a met. This shows a lot of his tweets. I’ll let y’all read them and judge for yourselves. —————————— **So, to sum it up, there were nowhere near record Arctic low temps at the surface, which would make zero sense with Arctic ice near record lows as NorthHillsWx correctly stated very well. Instead, the record low temps are way up high in the strat over the N Pole, which has nothing to do with the surface. The Arctic surface temps are, indeed, WAY above normal! The warmup he’s referring to is a SSW of the record cold (for Feb 2nd) strat. But he communicated that in a very poor, misleading manner. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Monday at 03:35 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:35 AM The prognosticated pattern improvement, if it verifies, seems to be setting up about 2 weeks too late for legitimate hopes for RDU east. That said some pretty anomalous solutions starting to show up on some guidance, so I'll stay interested for a while yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 11:23 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:23 AM Some of the guidance overnight hammers NC/VA and so does the Euro AI. We continue to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 12:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:47 PM 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: Some of the guidance overnight hammers NC/VA and so does the Euro AI. We continue to track. Hard not to be optimistic up your way, especially if you're a fan of the mixed precip winter storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 02:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:09 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:11 PM 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: That's a big signal for CAD areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Monday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:47 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 02:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:53 PM 6Z GEFS: I count 7 of the 30 members with a widespread significant winter storm within 2/12-13 centered on much of NC/NW SC/NE GA. Many of these have a mix. In addition a few give far N NC snow within 2/10-11. Snowfall (10:1) mean that includes both periods: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 03:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:08 PM This seems like New England will likely make up serious ground on their snowfall droughts. Call me skeptical about anything other than a mix bag for CAD areas 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:27 PM Major ICE Storm per 12z GFS for CAD areas on Day 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Monday at 04:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:28 PM GFS coming in with a nasty ice storm, looks like a prolonged period of freezing rain from roughly N of 40 and I 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Monday at 04:29 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 04:29 PM GFS looks totally different than the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Monday at 04:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:31 PM 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: GFS looks totally different than the Euro Yeah, especially the AIFS, which almost has Miller A look to it. Looks like several more waves of energy behind the first part on GFS. I would expect some major back and forth the rest of this week to see how the models will key on all that energy and the overall evolution of each piece. I think the key will be where that frontal boundary ends up and if the high can get locked in a little longer in the NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:35 PM 12z CMC keeps the idea of a Major Winter Storm for Central and Southern VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Monday at 04:37 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 04:37 PM We need the high to trend stronger but its trending weaker and this could be a cold rain for most in NC south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:49 PM 12z CMC maybe was about to deliver at 240 but that's pretty far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:01 PM 12Z GFS sleet: 12Z GFS ZR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:54 PM 12Z Euro for 2/12-13 storm: light snow followed by moderate ZR followed by heavy rain (bulk of qpf rain) 12Z Euro Kuchera snow: 12Z Euro ZR (sleet very limited) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:56 PM So the Euro went more GFS like at 12z with an ICE Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:01 PM 26 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: So the Euro went more GFS like at 12z with an ICE Storm. 12Z Euro is actually qpf wise for many here mainly a heavy rainstorm (with many temps getting well up into 40s to 50s/near 60) after a short period of snow and then a period of ZR Flooding from heavy rain could be the most noteworthy issue per Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Monday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:01 PM The 2/13 wave is of little interest to me at this point but I am intrigued by some of the looks showing up after that. It takes a lot to get good stuff east of RDU in late Feb especially in the warmer base state, but I got a solid 2 - 3" back in late Feb 2020, which was a miserable +++AO torch year overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted Monday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:09 PM 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: We need the high to trend stronger but its trending weaker and this could be a cold rain for most in NC south. Good-need the rain here! Lake levels still 3' below full pond.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Monday at 06:13 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 06:13 PM Just doesn't look like the cold push will be strong enough. I hate 30s and rain. Give me the SE death ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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