tarheelwx Posted Sunday at 11:50 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:50 AM To add, the Canadian at 240 hours looked primed to kick out something big over the next few frames. TW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 02:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:04 PM Fab Feb is loading…. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Sunday at 02:43 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:43 PM I said a few days ago that Feb 10-15 had potential. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 03:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:46 PM Today’s 0Z GEFS based forecast has the AO dropping to -2 Feb 14-16 vs down to only -1 on Feb 14-15 on yesterday’s run. That is not directly related to any potential major SSW as those require a lag period from the SSW to get down into troposphere and it would be occurring at about the same time. Any direct downward effects from it wouldn’t be til late Feb into March. I’m anticipating big changes on some aspects/portions of today’s Euro Weeklies. We’ll see if that’s actually the case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Sunday at 04:40 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:40 PM GFS showing a major winter storm for NC Cad areas Feb 11-13 time frame. Verbatim snow to sleet to ice. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Sunday at 04:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:48 PM Massive Winter Storm up this way during that period taken verbatim. @Buddy1987, GFS giving you 30" + lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Sunday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:01 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted Sunday at 05:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:11 PM Keep that 1" of ice out of the Piedmont please. I like electricity lol 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:13 PM My god what a GFS run. Might save that for the archive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Sunday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:46 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Sunday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:47 PM 12z GEFS agrees with the OP around that time period. Good signal! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Sunday at 05:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:53 PM 12z EURO with a Major Winter Storm again for around that Day 10 period, especially NC and VA 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Sunday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:04 PM Wait, I thought we were throwing pre emergent this week? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:07 PM 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Wait, I thought we were throwing pre emergent this week? Ironically I did, just in case lol. I felt like winter was probably coming back but I also remembered last year when I thought that and proceeded to have a crabgrass invasion by late March. Lowe’s has 0-0-7 50lb bags for $37 in case anyone wants to snag some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Sunday at 06:07 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:07 PM Euro brings the goods 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Sunday at 06:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:20 PM Euro with the classic I-85 signature. After the northwest trend, only the mountains will get anything. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Sunday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:27 PM 12z EPS thru HR 282 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 06:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:31 PM 9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Euro with the classic I-85 signature. After the northwest trend, only the mountains will get anything. I’ll say this. Living in the foothills for most of my life, when we do get a big storm, the signal usually starts around D9/10 and only progresses louder. That doesn’t mean to say it happens often, but when it does, it’s rarely something that starts coming together 3/4 days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:38 PM 18 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Euro with the classic I-85 signature. After the northwest trend, only the mountains will get anything. NW trend is pretty common in most cases not involving a massive Arctic outbreak when looking that far out due to cold bias of models. So, most know to expect that. Even the mountains may not be safe. That’s why seeing something that far out with a big winter storm is mainly for entertainment and should be taken with a huge grain. If it doesn’t trend NW from here, it would be a bit surprising. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Sunday at 06:40 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:40 PM 1 minute ago, GaWx said: NW trend is pretty common in most cases not involving a massive Arctic outbreak when looking that far out due to cold bias of models. So, most know to expect that. Even the mountains may not be safe. That’s why seeing something that far out with a big winter storm is mainly for entertainment and should be taken with a huge grain. If it doesn’t trend NW from here, it would be a bit surprising. I honestly think this one might not due to the confluence in the NE and the CAD high showing up. Of course that could all weaken but I'm more hopeful than usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted Sunday at 06:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:44 PM Can see this dropping farther south due to the fact CAD is hardly ever modeled strong enough on GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted Sunday at 06:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:59 PM 20 minutes ago, GaWx said: NW trend is pretty common in most cases not involving a massive Arctic outbreak when looking that far out due to cold bias of models. So, most know to expect that. Even the mountains may not be safe. That’s why seeing something that far out with a big winter storm is mainly for entertainment and should be taken with a huge grain. If it doesn’t trend NW from here, it would be a bit surprising. I was confident that would the case for the last storm in my location (far northern mountains) and Pensacola ended up with 14 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted Sunday at 07:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:00 PM 31 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z EPS thru HR 282 I’ll take that to close out the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted Sunday at 07:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:22 PM 41 minutes ago, GaWx said: NW trend is pretty common in most cases not involving a massive Arctic outbreak when looking that far out due to cold bias of models. So, most know to expect that. Even the mountains may not be safe. That’s why seeing something that far out with a big winter storm is mainly for entertainment and should be taken with a huge grain. If it doesn’t trend NW from here, it would be a bit surprising. I agree with you. However, it has been trending south .... it may not be done yet. It will all come down to where it ends up before the NW trend sets in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Sunday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:30 PM 42 minutes ago, GaWx said: NW trend is pretty common in most cases not involving a massive Arctic outbreak when looking that far out due to cold bias of models. So, most know to expect that. Even the mountains may not be safe. That’s why seeing something that far out with a big winter storm is mainly for entertainment and should be taken with a huge grain. If it doesn’t trend NW from here, it would be a bit surprising. Ensembles flipped cold in LR. As was discussed last Week, the MJO not stalling in warm phases . Low Amp into COD allows other Drivers to take control of the Bus. The Base - EPO +TNH appears to be headed back. Blocking over the Top is rather odd given the +QBO and has really created Havoc with Forecasters relying on the "should be" resultant Pattern. As alluded to earlier, the PDO is apparently alot of the Reason as it is no longer Negative. The Nina is weak and we have a formidable STJ. It seems some just kept seeing the PDO as it was and the Nina as being Canonical. Lastly, as we all know that's been in the business for awhile, sometimes Patterns don't follow the rules. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Sunday at 08:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:42 PM The 12Z CMC doesn't go out far enough but it's ensembles do and they show the storm signal as well 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Sunday at 08:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:57 PM It seems like in general storms have tended south this winter FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Sunday at 09:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:12 PM Looks like a cold rain maker for RDU 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Sunday at 09:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:17 PM 12z EURO AI is Starts around Day 9/10 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted Sunday at 09:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:30 PM 18 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Looks like a cold rain maker for RDU zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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