Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[olafminesaw]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The SE’s best bet to get the pattern to change back to cold by the last few days of Feb and through at least much of March is to have a mid Feb major SSW. As of yesterday, the EPS and GEFS means were still showing no indication of that being much of a possibility with instead showing strong SPV related mean 60N zonal winds at midmonth.

 However, I was alerted earlier tonight by Dr. Simon Lee tweets that a strong Scandinavian (high)-Greenland (low) SLP Dipole was on the models Feb 6-7. The reason that’s important is that he’s done studies showing that this Dipole is often a precursor to a major SSW by ~~1 week. The last few GFS runs have been hinting at a much weaker SPV in mid Feb. We should know much more by the Sunday runs. In addition, Joe D’Aleo did a study that concluded a high chance for a major SSW during high solar/+QBO winters like 2024-5.

 Dr. Simon Lee’s study of S-G Dipole:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030940

0Z 1/31/24 GFS 168: strong S-G Dipole:

Some agreement here

[StantonParkHoya]

4 hours ago, Jmoon said:

Warm February is good for nothing in Winter. You should know by now what a warm February is going to bring you in March and April and sometimes May. 

Difference is by April and May our highs are 70s/80s so even 10 BN is pleasant 

[lilj4425]

I’m still here.  

[StantonParkHoya]

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Some agreement here

The SE may need a major SSW to help turn things around during the last few days of Feb. But in meantime, today’s Euro Weeklies are even warmer for Feb as a whole with some areas a whopping 7 AN, near the normal for Mar!

[wncsnow]

I had some hope but it's definitely trending towards no more winter weather threats outside the mountains. Shoot there aren't even many nights below freezing coming up..

[NorthHillsWx]

That my 1.9” of snow on the season feels like a win is how bad it’s been. Not even halfway to climo…

[LakeNormanStormin]

1.5" of snow

0.5" of sleet

0.2" of ice

Cornelius, NC

Not terrible but still disappointing

[wncsnow]

I'm at 1.5 snow, .5 sleet. Average the last 30 years is around 7 inches. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Standard Nina . Enso is weighted heaviest in LR Models. 

[tarheelwx]

Most of us have been in a drought since October 1st.  
TW

[tarheelwx]

Both the Euro and the AI have a major winter Storm for much of NC out around 288-300 hours.  Lots of precip with temps in the mid/upper twenties for a fair amount of n and western NC.  I don’t think we’re done yet.  
TW

[LithiaWx]

1 hour ago, tarheelwx said:

Both the Euro and the AI have a major winter Storm for much of NC out around 288-300 hours.  Lots of precip with temps in the mid/upper twenties for a fair amount of n and western NC.  I don’t think we’re done yet.  
TW

It could turn into a raging sunshine storm by tomorrow.  

[suzook]

7 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

It could turn into a raging sunshine storm by tomorrow.  

Its on its own island right now. Winter is over for most, other than the mountains.

[olafminesaw]

12 minutes ago, suzook said:

Its on its own island right now. Winter is over for most, other than the mountains.

Eh, the GFS has it too, just a little further north. Worth watching trends anyway

[tarheelwx]

26 minutes ago, suzook said:

Its on its own island right now. Winter is over for most, other than the mountains.

The GFS, AI, and the Euro all have the storm - just the GFS is a little further north.  So, definitely not on an island.  Odds are low as we’ve been here many times, even this winter, and it hasn’t worked out.  Worth a watch for now.  
TW

[suzook]

3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

The GFS, AI, and the Euro all have the storm - just the GFS is a little further north.  So, definitely not on an island.  Odds are low as we’ve been here many times, even this winter, and it hasn’t worked out.  Worth a watch for now.  
TW

Well, I guess i misspoke, what i meant is the AI is overdoing the cold. But yes, cant rule it out completely. Shot in the dark.

[GaWx]

 This from 12Z GFS is likely depicting a major SSW on 2/14/25: keep in mind ability of op GFS to lead ensemble means twice (prior 2 Febs almost to the day) as per my La Niña thread post. If this really occurs, look for possibility of it leading to -NAO late Feb (-AO already being hinted even earlier) and potential of cold in E US late Feb through much of Mar but would help if there’s no strong -PNA/SE ridge just before:

[StantonParkHoya]

When was the last time we had a warm March

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

When was the last time we had a warm March

2024

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

2024

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

2024 was wall to wall warmth every month finished above average at RDU. January 2025 bucked that trend

[tarheelwx]

I guess nobody is looking at the 18z AI.  15” plus for much of northwestern NC. A couple of waves in the 200-300 hr range. 
TW

[SnowNiner]

1 hour ago, tarheelwx said:

I guess nobody is looking at the 18z AI.  15” plus for much of northwestern NC. A couple of waves in the 200-300 hr range. 
TW

Euro AIFS is game on mid February, I think that’s clear. Question is is it going to lead the way and other models follow suite, or is it out to lunch? 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, tarheelwx said:

I guess nobody is looking at the 18z AI.  15” plus for much of northwestern NC. A couple of waves in the 200-300 hr range. 
TW

How has the Euro AI done this winter compared to the major globals including the Euro op?

 I followed it closely for the 1/10-11 winter storm and thought that it was terrible with surface features. I posted about that several times with supporting maps.
 
 For example, remember the warming S winds it had going well inland into the SE despite the low being in the Gulf, something that almost never happens and didn’t. It had no wedge and instead it had the S flow ahead of a Clipper and on the backside of a high moving offshore.
 

 This is enough to tell me to not put much weight on it when it’s way out on its own especially past 200 hours and with it showing an historic solution on its own. Could this be a little like the old DGEX weenie model that was almost never right with its crazy solutions?

[GaWx]

 Interestingly, 0Z GFS went toward the 18Z Euro AI to an extent with two consecutive CAD induced sleet and ice events in update SC and much of NC Feb 12-13. But we’re still talking 240+ hours out on the GFS. So, taking with a huge grain right now. It would probably be best to start looking at the ensembles for this period to get a better feel for whether or not this will likely be the next SE winter threat period.

[GaWx]

Mainly for entertainment from 0Z GFS as it will almost certainly change a lot on the 6Z since this is so far out and it’s so different from the prior run:

 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro: mainly for entertainment since hours 240-264 and very different from prior run: I kind of hope Brick doesn’t see this so as to prevent him from getting overly excited before bedtime; take with grain this very heavy snowstorm some areas; 0.1” snow just N of KATL…would be 3rd within 5 weeks for ATL area SE of I-85! Last winter KATL got 3 measurable events: 2010-11 and 2009-10. @dsaurtell the moles no sleet for them on this run and sleet only in few areas this run (not near you). So not posting it/trying to conserve attachment space lol.

 

Nite nite!

[Upstate Tiger]

Overnight Euro and 06z GFS would suggest a candlelight dinner maybe appropriate for Valentines Day.  

[tarheelwx]

With the GFS, the Euro, and the AI all showing the biggest winter storm by far for NC for next week, I’d say we’re officially tracking.  
TW

[strongwxnc]

4 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

With the GFS, the Euro, and the AI all showing the biggest winter storm by far for NC for next week, I’d say we’re officially tracking.  
TW

I agree.