Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, HKY_WX said:

1 week later you can see the results. This is a normal lag time between higher heights building in over the Poles and a pattern change over the CONUS. So we may have a window from roughly Feb 21 - Mid March where we could squeak out another event. We shall see.

 Though still not showing anywhere near BN cold and still mild through 2/16 in the SE, the new Euro Weeklies have cooled off from AN to only slightly above to NN in N portions 2/17-3/2 in the SE US. We’ll see whether or not that is a one run aberration. 

2/17-23: (2/24-3/2 looks similar in SE)

[dsaur]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Though still not showing anywhere near BN cold and still mild through 2/16 in the SE, the new Euro Weeklies have cooled off from AN to only slightly above to NN in N portions 2/17-3/2 in the SE US. We’ll see whether or not that is a one run aberration. 

2/17-23: (2/24-3/2 looks similar in SE)

Well, Climo likes the last third of Feb for Ga snows, so it's in the bank....right??  A three peat for 2025.  And this time the big one for Tony...not these piddly 1 inch snows with a little ip, but a three inch ip with a little snow.  Make is so, Mr. Abacus...if you please

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, dsaur said:

Well, Climo likes the last third of Feb for Ga snows, so it's in the bank....right??  A three peat for 2025.  And this time the big one for Tony...not these piddly 1 inch snows with a little ip, but a three inch ip with a little snow.  Make is so, Mr. Abacus...if you please

 Well Mr. Moles, I wouldn’t say in bank but 3”+ storms in Feb in GA have tended to occur mid to late Feb to Mar 2nd as well as in late Jan. For an unknown reason early Feb has been quiet. Could be merely randomness.

[StantonParkHoya]

6 hours ago, HKY_WX said:

So next 2 weeks look very warm. AO/NAO are headed up and the PV is going to strengthen. This will allow the central/eastern CONUS to warm significantly vs January. That said, there are signals the 2nd half of February will be a transitionary period to perhaps a colder March in the east.

See below for the 12z Euro extended 5h heights and the GEFS AO forecast. 

Cold March is good for nothing. It’s not the 1960s. A cold rain and seasonal depression.

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Cold March is good for nothing. It’s not the 1960s. A cold rain and seasonal depression.

 Good news for you as of now. There’s no indication for a cold first 1/3 of March on today’s Euro Weeklies. Though it could of course change drastically since it is over a month away, this map shows the opposite of cold in the E US:

This is for Mar 3-9:

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Good news for you as of now. There’s no indication for a cold first 1/3 of March on today’s Euro Weeklies. Though it could of course change drastically since it is over a month away, this map shows the opposite of cold in the E US:

This is for Mar 3-9:

Looks standard Nina +AO.

[dsaur]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Well Mr. Moles, I wouldn’t say in bank but 3”+ storms in Feb in GA have tended to occur mid to late Feb to Mar 2nd as well as in late Jan. For an unknown reason early Feb has been quiet. Could be merely randomness.

I think it's the old "reloading" thing.  Early Jan, actually from Xmas on thru most of Jan used to be cold, then reload.... indigenous people's summer....then mid Feb, to late, gave some great storms back in the way back.  Then March was a crap shoot. Now, who knows.... but people saying no more chances before Jan is even over, maybe right, but maybe not. The actual weather generally has something to say about these things, lol....and I've never seen a script.

[olafminesaw]

Volatility! These are within a 4 day timeframe 

[suzook]

25 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Volatility! These are within a 4 day timeframe 

Looks like a normal winter pattern these days. Warm, a quick shot of cold, then back to warm.

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, suzook said:

Looks like a normal winter pattern these days. Warm, a quick shot of cold, then back to warm.

 Even in a mild (cold) month, a short period or two of cold (mild) isn’t uncommon. 0Z/6Z ens means are suggesting a 2-3 day long cold period is quite possible in the E US starting ~Feb 9th-10th but otherwise they’re mainly on the mild side NYC south and restrengthen the SE ridge immediately afterward. So, the means for the first half of Feb would still easily be AN NYC south. Will keep watching ens mean trends for Feb 9th+ to see how they trend going forward.

 Phases 6-7, especially 6, lean toward the AN temp side in Feb fwiw. Phases that are BN on avg in Feb are 8, 1, 2, and 3, especially if amplitude isn’t strong.

[eyewall]

Typically it is an early spring with La Nina. I wouldn't expect anything less this time.

[chris21]

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Typically it is an early spring with La Nina. I wouldn't expect anything less this time.

Maybe for the lowlands. Ton of snow in the high mountains in 2018 until mid April.

[Daniel Boone]

40 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Maybe for the lowlands. Ton of snow in the high mountains in 2018 until mid April.

Yes, and let's not forget April 08 and particularly March 2009. Model's overnight seem to be correcting to a colder Pattern in 10 days as they're now seeing the MJO not living in the warm phases. Seem to be trying to reassert the previous Pattern to some degree then. 

[BooneWX]

The models are coming around a bit today as @Daniel Boonealluded to. The background state is the background state and for once, it’s a cold one. I still think persistent cold will be a lot more challenging this time around but I also think a more extreme gradient between warm and cold could pay off with the storm track for some. 

[strongwxnc]

The models are coming around a bit today as [mention=13698]Daniel Boone[/mention]alluded to. The background state is the background state and for once, it’s a cold one. I still think persistent cold will be a lot more challenging this time around but I also think a more extreme gradient between warm and cold could pay off with the storm track for some. 

Yup! Quick punch is all it will take.


.

[chris21]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yes, and let's not forget April 08 and particularly March 2009. Model's overnight seem to be correcting to a colder Pattern in 10 days as they're now seeing the MJO not living in the warm phases. Seem to be trying to reassert the previous Pattern to some degree then. 

Absolutely! At my location, I’ve measured a bit over thirty inches (over 70 percent upslope) so far. Would be shocked to get blanked on upslope over the next few months with the likely MJO pass and seasonal trends.

[purduewx80]

5-7 are the warm phases this time of year, not sure where some of you are getting your info. 

[suzook]

13 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

5-7 are the warm phases this time of year, not sure where some of you are getting your info. 

People are wishcasting. Feb is looking warm.

[Upstate Tiger]

On 1/29/2025 at 1:52 PM, HKY_WX said:

So next 2 weeks look very warm. AO/NAO are headed up and the PV is going to strengthen. This will allow the central/eastern CONUS to warm significantly vs January. That said, there are signals the 2nd half of February will be a transitionary period to perhaps a colder March in the east.

See below for the 12z Euro extended 5h heights and the GEFS AO forecast. 

Thanks for sharing!  I love it when someone actually shares meteorology.  Keep in mind, metereology and climatology are two different things...

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

5-7 are the warm phases this time of year, not sure where some of you are getting your info. 

The point wasn't solely what phases the MJO is heading into. Should have completed the meaning of it , I suppose. Point was Models trended away from the high amp warm phase stall especially of what the much loved GEFS was showing. It has trended more toward the other's. As far as P 7, it can be cold and produce in the NW sections of the SE. Also, the MJO as you know, isn't the only Driver particularly if it's low amp or in COD or even if another is strong. As far as the MJO Info, it's from the same. It appears the GEFS is really the only one still showing any progression thru the really warm Phases. 

[Met1985]

The mjo isn't the only driver in the atmosphere.  Some on here act like it's god tier in running the pattern which is complete bullshit but whatever.  Most of February looks warm but the second half is a wild card for me but yall keep talking about grass seed and such. Heck yall down east are done with winter anyways...

[tarheelwx]

12z AI has a big winter storm for cad region of NC on out there a ways 

TW

[Met1985]

Gfs and EURO both picking up on a shuffle around the 8th across the continent. Are we going to be wall to wall cold no but I do think we break this warm pattern down a bit.

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[wncsnow]

I think there's a shot for foothills and obviously mountains around the 10th-15th. 

[GaWx]

 Unfortunately for cold lovers like myself, today’s Euro Weeklies for 2/17-23 & 2/24-3/2 totally reversed yesterday’s much colder runs for those two weeks and are back to a solid mild signal:

2/17-23:

 

 The other 5 weeks of the run through 3/16 are about as warm or warmer. The implied prog for Feb as a whole is for ~6F AN in much of the SE. The good news is that there’s still plenty of time for especially late Feb to reverse. But the overall signal for a mild SE in Feb has been persistent with a dominant SE ridge and +AO/+NAO (canonical La Niña Feb). And for those worried about cold rains in early Mar, this run says “no worries” like it did yesterday.

[wncsnow]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Unfortunately for cold lovers like myself, today’s Euro Weeklies for 2/17-23 & 2/24-3/2 totally reversed yesterday’s much colder runs for those two weeks and are back to a solid mild signal:

2/17-23:

 

 The other 5 weeks of the run through 3/16 are about as warm or warmer. The implied prog for Feb as a whole is for ~6F AN in much of the SE. The good news is that there’s still plenty of time for especially late Feb to reverse. But the overall signal for a mild SE in Feb has been persistent with a dominant SE ridge and +AO/+NAO (canonical La Niña Feb). And for those worried about cold rains in early Mar, this run says “no worries” like it did yesterday.

The good news is that it's the Weeklies and tomorrow it will probably show the opposite. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

The good news is that it's the Weeklies and tomorrow it will probably show the opposite. 

 We’ll see whether or not they go back to the slightly AN to NN mid to late Feb maps of yesterday. But today was painful to see. Unlike you I like cold regardless of snow, which is very rare here. There’s way too much humid heat May-Sept.

 I’d much rather the Weeklies show it cold. When they’ve been cold this winter (late Nov/early Dec, much of Jan), they’ve been accurate. They’ve also done well with warmups. That’s why I hate seeing them this warm.

 Regardless, the 2-3 day cold snap within week 2 of Feb remains on the model consensus.

[BooneWX]

MJO, climatology, and everything else aside, one thing that’s very different than past February’s is the fact that we have cold on this side of the globe. If we get another episode of a stretched PV + the ridge bridge shown on some of the modeling over the arctic, we’ll be in the freezer. Maybe not the January freezer but cold nonetheless.

[Jmoon]

On 1/29/2025 at 7:59 PM, StantonParkHoya said:

Cold March is good for nothing. It’s not the 1960s. A cold rain and seasonal depression.

Warm February is good for nothing in Winter. You should know by now what a warm February is going to bring you in March and April and sometimes May. 

[GaWx]

 The SE’s best bet to get the pattern to change back to cold by the last few days of Feb and through at least much of March is to have a mid Feb major SSW. As of yesterday, the EPS and GEFS means were still showing no indication of that being much of a possibility with instead showing strong SPV related mean 60N zonal winds at midmonth.

 However, I was alerted earlier tonight by Dr. Simon Lee tweets that a strong Scandinavian (high)-Greenland (low) SLP Dipole was on the models Feb 6-7. The reason that’s important is that he’s done studies showing that this Dipole is often a precursor to a major SSW by ~~1 week. The last few GFS runs have been hinting at a much weaker SPV in mid Feb. We should know much more by the Sunday runs. In addition, Joe D’Aleo did a study that concluded a high chance for a major SSW during high solar/+QBO winters like 2024-5.

 Dr. Simon Lee’s study of S-G Dipole:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030940

0Z 1/31/24 GFS 168: strong S-G Dipole: