Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[NorthHillsWx]

I’ll go out on a limb and say that they probably meant the current pattern bc that would top some of the weenie cancel winter posts on here 

[Tacoma]

Why does it seem like every February winter weather chances seem to disappear when in fact it should be a great month for winter weather especially in the mountains.

[WXNewton]

Euro, Gfs and Canadian Ens are showing some potential in the Feb 7-11 timeframe. 

 

[purduewx80]

We're probably going to need the -NAO (GH) to return in some form to get any wintry precip chances outside of the mountains and/or Piedmont in fleeting CAD setups. Ridging at the edge of the Pacific(PR) and Alaska(AKR) domains will continue to bring Arctic air into North America, but it seems destined to spend the most time in the typical Niña spots from New England to the Rockies and PacNW. Gonna be hard to avoid a top 10 warmest February in parts of the Southeast imo.

[NGTim]

18 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

The Freeze Miser work great on outdoor faucets. Makes more sense to use these (or allow drips) in the South because we don't have lengthy periods of super cold weather; otherwise, they probably would freeze up. You leave the faucet on, and this allows a very slow drip when temperatures drop below about 35. Mine have worked well with temps in the teens a few nights in a row - both froze up solid prior to grabbing these from Amazon.

Finally a topic i can speak to with some authority.  I was skeptical but had seen a lot of youtube videos.  Whenever we have prolonged nights in the teens, the water trough freezes up and its a pain to bust it up every day.  I put one of these freeze misers on the hose for the water trough about 3 weeks ago and it has worked flawlessly the whole time even in this long cold snap.  I'd say its the best $28 dollars i have ever spent, no hyperbole.  It dripped as advertised, and even kept the trough from freezing over (it did freeze around the edges around week 2, but, there was always unfrozen water for the animals, around where it was dripping in).  One thing to think about is a way to divert the water thats going to run over so you don't create a hazard.  Once i did that it was fine.  I can't say enough about this simple product.  As an added bonus, your entire system is being dripped automatically when the temps are below freezing.

[StantonParkHoya]

2 hours ago, Tacoma said:

Why does it seem like every February winter weather chances seem to disappear when in fact it should be a great month for winter weather especially in the mountains.

Because we just had a historically cold January and the rubber band has to snap back at some point, coupled with the fact that in the South, February is the beginning of transition to spring.

[wncsnow]

We could actually use the rain in most of the western Carolinas. It's been cold and dry

[NorthHillsWx]

15 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

We could actually use the rain in most of the western Carolinas. It's been cold and dry

Eastern Carolina’s are solidly in moderate drought with some severe drought areas starting to show 

[kvegas-wx]

Raining in LA finally and I'm wearing t-shirts again in Carolina, so I'd say thats a layman's confirmation of a pattern flip.

[Met1985]

3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

We could actually use the rain in most of the western Carolinas. It's been cold and dry

Yeah we really need a few inches of rainfall here. 

[franklin NCwx]

39 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah we really need a few inches of rainfall here. 

Some rain and normal to above temps for the next 10-14 days will be a nice break!

[purduewx80]

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Eastern Carolina’s are solidly in moderate drought with some severe drought areas starting to show 

Soil moisture is pretty dire in the coastal plain. Really need these areas to catch up prior to consistently warmer weather, which seems unlikely at this point.

 

[Met1985]

10 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Some rain and normal to above temps for the next 10-14 days will be a nice break!

Yeah it really will be. Temp for highs in the teens and lows around 0 make for some intense days.

[StantonParkHoya]

It’s important to note that while long range Barney colors look cool and evoke “deep winter”, by mid-late-February, much of this forum is averaging +/- 60 degrees for highs. It would take some really deep cold to get folks in the game.

[NorthHillsWx]

Sad seeing this place die. Was a fun month 

[NorthHillsWx]

Long range looks quite torchy with our good friend the SER

[purduewx80]

~Decadal February climo may be hard to beat in the Southeast and Northern Rockies/Plains. 

[GaWx]

 I’m projecting Jan of 2025 to end up with a mean temp of 44.8F (~6F BN) in Savannah. That would make it the coldest Jan since 1981 and tied with 1918 for the 8th coldest Jan back to 1874 behind only:

1893, 1940, 1958, 1970, 1977, 1978, and 1981

 For non-El Nino only, 2025 would with 1918 be tied for 3rd coldest Jan behind only 1893 (La Niña) and 1981 (cold neutral)!
 
 Here are the only 6 La Niña Jans that were 46 or colder at KSAV:

1887 (46.0)

1893 (44.3)

1918 (44.8)

1976 (45.9)

1985 (45.3)

2011 (45.1)

Average of these 6: 45.2 (MB)

 

 How were the subsequent Febs along with their anomalies using 53.6 as normal?

1887: 59.9 (MA)

1893: 56.8 (A)

1918: 58.9 (MA)

1976: 56.3 (A)

1985: 52.9 (N)

2011: 55.4 (slightly A)

 Average of these 6: 56.7 (A)

 

-So, for these very cold (46 or colder/MB) Nina Jans, the following Febs averaged a whopping 11.5 warmer!

-None were BN.

-All but 1985 were 10+ warmer than the prior Jan.

 The Euro Weeklies are suggesting Feb of 2025 will be 10+ warmer than Jan of 2025 at KSAV thanks to a dominant solid SE ridge. Based on the above analysis, I have no reason to doubt that this will actually occur as of now.

Historical data:
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=chs

[Upstate Tiger]

Watching the second week of February.  Cold is on the move from Canada and NAO looks to be moving toward negative territory.  

[suzook]

36 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

 

 

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I’m projecting Jan of 2025 to end up with a mean temp of 44.8F (~6F BN) in Savannah. That would make it the coldest Jan since 1981 and tied with 1918 for the 8th coldest Jan back to 1874 behind only:

1893, 1940, 1958, 1970, 1977, 1978, and 1981

 For non-El Nino only, 2025 would with 1918 be tied for 3rd coldest Jan behind only 1893 (La Niña) and 1981 (cold neutral)!
 
 Here are the only 6 La Niña Jans that were 46 or colder at KSAV:

1887 (46.0)

1893 (44.3)

1918 (44.8)

1976 (45.9)

1985 (45.3)

2011 (45.1)

Average of these 6: 45.2 (MB)

 

 How were the subsequent Febs along with their anomalies using 53.6 as normal?

1887: 59.9 (MA)

1893: 56.8 (A)

1918: 58.9 (MA)

1976: 56.3 (A)

1985: 52.9 (N)

2011: 55.4 (slightly A)

 Average of these 6: 56.7 (A)

 

-So, for these very cold (46 or colder/MB) Nina Jans, the following Febs averaged a whopping 11.5 warmer!

-None were BN.

-All but 1985 were 10+ warmer than the prior Jan.

 The Euro Weeklies are suggesting Feb of 2025 will be 10+ warmer than Jan of 2025 at KSAV thanks to a dominant solid SE ridge. Based on the above analysis, I have no reason to doubt that this will actually occur as of now.

Historical data:
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=chs

Good point. I do see some here wishing for something that just doesn't look feasible. February is absolutely going to be warm.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, suzook said:

 

Good point. I do see some here wishing for something that just doesn't look feasible. February is absolutely going to be warm.

Don’t forget that even a mild winter month can and often does have a short cold period. They’re far from mutually exclusive. Just like a cold month often has a short mild period.

[GaWx]

 The new Euro Weeklies for the SE are AN every week of Feb. Overall, this run is even warmer than yesterday’s as a result of a warmer Feb 10-16, which is AN vs the NN of the prior two runs. This run has much of the SE at an anomaly of ~+4F, which would equate to in the absolutes about a 11-14F warmer month than Jan.

 The SE ridge/-PNA/Aleutian ridge as well as +AO/+NAO are dominant through the month. The main fly in the ointment is a pretty strong -EPO for the 1st half of the month, which may allow for some cold air sneaking in at times although the weeklong 2m maps don’t explicitly show any.

 The Euro Weeklies have been magnificent weeks in advance for this winter so far. That’s why I feel they’re worthy of posts and is why I’ve been regularly posting about them throughout this winter whether cold or mild.

[metalicwx367]

17 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Sad seeing this place die. Was a fun month 

It was indeed a very fun month. Glad to have experienced a historic winter storm in my hometown before returning back to this weather in Australia. 

 

[suzook]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Don’t forget that even a mild winter month can and often does have a short cold period. They’re far from mutually exclusive. Just like a cold month often has a short mild period.

Absolutely agree! I'm sure we will get a cold day or 2 thrown in, but February will overall be warm. I'm ok with that, January was a fun run, time for spring!

[TullyHeel]

18 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Sad seeing this place die. Was a fun month 

We get two shots at most for winter storms here these days and that's it. At least we got some snow but it's been a bad 3 year stretch, and I don't think the days of at least 2 to 3 decent events each winter are coming back.

[StantonParkHoya]

1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

We get two shots at most for winter storms here these days and that's it. At least we got some snow but it's been a bad 3 year stretch, and I don't think the days of at least 2 to 3 decent events each winter are coming back.

Brick — we just got unlucky with a storm to our west and one to our east. It literally can’t get much colder. We will get ours eventually.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

This winter just wants to be cold 

https://x.com/scweather_wx/status/1884008133900788138?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

[Upstate Tiger]

36 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Brick — we just got unlucky with a storm to our west and one to our east. It literally can’t get much colder. We will get ours eventually.

I can say with a fair amount of certainty that one day we will probably see another Miller A with widespread snow in the SE.  I may not be around then, but it will be awesome.  

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The new Euro Weeklies for the SE are AN every week of Feb. Overall, this run is even warmer than yesterday’s as a result of a warmer Feb 10-16, which is AN vs the NN of the prior two runs. This run has much of the SE at an anomaly of ~+4F, which would equate to in the absolutes about a 11-14F warmer month than Jan.

 The SE ridge/-PNA/Aleutian ridge as well as +AO/+NAO are dominant through the month. The main fly in the ointment is a pretty strong -EPO for the 1st half of the month, which may allow for some cold air sneaking in at times although the weeklong 2m maps don’t explicitly show any.

 The Euro Weeklies have been magnificent weeks in advance for this winter so far. That’s why I feel they’re worthy of posts and is why I’ve been regularly posting about them throughout this winter whether cold or mild.

They're going that way mainly due to the now coupled Nina . The MJO is still not set in stone as far as it's continual trek into cold phases after this warm excursion. If it were to become more evident with the Models it's going on into the cold phases at decent Amp, expect some backing off the large area of AN in parts of the eastern US. 

    Just looking at those year's listed, even though that Map shows overall AN in the eastern US, Feb 2014 and 2015 were cold in the upper South and MA. 2015 very cold and record Snowy in the upper South and lower Ohio Valley and portions of the MA. 

   The PDO is no longer Negative either so, may be what will tip this closer to being closer to 1985, 2014 or 15. Feb 2015 actually featured a strong positive NAO. +TNH was through the roof though. 

    Just a little food for thought. Odds regardless do favor the far SE, in particular being under control of the SER.

[HKY_WX]

Euro weeklies and extended ensembles show we'll be fighting a SE ridge in February. The PV looks to strengthen. This will result in a +AO/NAO which will bottle up the cold air in Canada. There are some hints of the PNA going positive in Mid-February which could help out. It will likely be a Month of Ups/Downs. It does show some CONUS wide Cold air in starting up in early March.