Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 12:25 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:25 AM GFS was too warm for the 2/1 - 2/2 storm. Had some ice at the beginning for the NC mountains and then turned into rain for everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Friday at 12:29 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:29 AM 5 minutes ago, RockyKnob said: The December 2022 storm was like that for Central NC. No power for 8 days outside Chapel Hill, where we lived on a well (ie, no water). I have a whole house generator now because of that experience. I remember waking up to the sound of trees cracking and transformers blowing. That (5 days) and hurricane Fran (8 days) were the longest we were ever without power 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Friday at 12:55 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:55 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 01:56 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:56 AM 58 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Yeah, the Canadian was ice, ice baby. GFS, Euro and Canadian have the storm. Guess we'll have a week to see how things turn out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Friday at 03:49 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:49 AM It's the end of the icon run but it has a monster storm coming from Texas with plenty of cold air in place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted Friday at 12:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:46 PM Plenty of time for things to change, but this is looking like an ice nightmare at this point. There is some SERIOUS cold in the NE at this time, bleeding down south. I would rather have plain ole rain instead of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted Friday at 01:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:04 PM Trends over the last 24 hours have been for the cold to be out ahead of the precip rather than being aligned together. The result is far fewer, if any, models showing a major cad storm. Some still show some ice in the mountains and prime cad region, but no longer a major storm. The ingredients are still there, just not quite lining up like a couple of models showed a couple of days ago. Still need to watch this one as I'd expect models to begin to converge on a general outcome by early next week. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 01:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:22 PM Nothing on the GFS and Euro but rain next weekend. The 0z ICON did have that storm in Texas at the end of the run. Canadian had some ice in the NC mountains that turned to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Friday at 01:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:24 PM 14 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Trends over the last 24 hours have been for the cold to be out ahead of the precip rather than being aligned together. The result is far fewer, if any, models showing a major cad storm. Some still show some ice in the mountains and prime cad region, but no longer a major storm. The ingredients are still there, just not quite lining up like a couple of models showed a couple of days ago. Still need to watch this one as I'd expect models to begin to converge on a general outcome by early next week. TW Yeah was just looking at ensembles, on both GFS and Euro have cold enough air possible on Friday/Sat timeframe with moisture close by. Wedge seems to break down by Sunday as bulk of moisture moves in. I think you definitely hit the nail on the head, it's always about timing and this looks to be a shot where the cold is retreating as moisture moves in. Something to keep an eye on, but I would say the chances have probably decreased for significant ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Friday at 01:30 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 01:30 PM Time to punt to late February looking at the indices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Friday at 01:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:52 PM 21 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Time to punt to late February looking at the indices I don't think so. Euro did not scream torch. The AO is currently positive and the gulf coast just got a foot of snow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted Friday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:58 PM 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I don't think so. Euro did not scream torch. The AO is currently positive and the gulf coast just got a foot of snow... Other than next weekend, there's really nothing positive in the models or indicies right now. I think @wncsnowis right, we likely punt until at least Valentine's day. Heck, we're talking 60s next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Friday at 02:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:02 PM 2 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said: Other than next weekend, there's really nothing positive in the models or indicies right now. I think @wncsnowis right, we likely punt until at least Valentine's day. Heck, we're talking 60s next week! Yeah from looking at better chances it looks like maybe the second week in February before we another shuffle but the Euro showed a pretty normal pattern setting up. Some highs and lows. We've basically been well below normal the entire month of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Friday at 02:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:07 PM 00z euro. Doesn't look like torch or freezing cold. Honestly looks close to normal. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:41 PM I wouldn't mind some warmer weather if we're done with the snow. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Friday at 02:49 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:49 PM I never said torch but it's not a pattern likely to produce winter weather in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Friday at 03:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:58 PM 1 hour ago, WNC_Fort said: Other than next weekend, there's really nothing positive in the models or indicies right now. I think @wncsnowis right, we likely punt until at least Valentine's day. Heck, we're talking 60s next week! Punting to V Day likely means it’s almost over for those east of 85 outside of a very anomalous situation 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orange county Posted Friday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:34 PM 1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said: I wouldn't mind some warmer weather if we're done with the snow. I planted 80 daffodils and Tulips this past Fall Looking forward......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Friday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:49 PM 12z CMC still has a nasty ice storm for the cad region, again timing would have to be perfect high is retreating. Verbatim temps in mid 20s in the heart of the CAD slowly warming to around 31-32 by the end of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Friday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:51 PM 1 minute ago, WXNewton said: 12z CMC still has a nasty ice storm for the cad region. Big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:52 PM Ice turning into rain on the CMC, but looks like more ice than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:54 PM Still rain on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Friday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:19 PM Looks to me like our stretch of Fail Februarys will continue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted Friday at 05:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:58 PM Still looks to me like another round of really cold air pushing south from Canada into the US at the end of the 1st week of February. Looking forward to playing a round of golf after church Sunday for the first time in weeks. Hoping for sunny skies and low 50s. It will seem like summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted Friday at 06:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:55 PM Wow! Lynchburg and Central VA hit with 1"+...lights out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Friday at 07:29 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 07:29 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:20 PM The models are speeding up the transition back to cold. Looks like a torch lite until the end of the first week of Feb but the -EPO has a little more winter for us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted Friday at 08:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:33 PM 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Looks to me like our stretch of Fail Februarys will continue Punting on an entire month a week before the month even begins is a bold strategy, Cotton. 1 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted Friday at 09:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:31 PM 56 minutes ago, msuwx said: Punting on an entire month a week before the month even begins is a bold strategy, Cotton. Nah. He picked the shortest month of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Friday at 10:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:17 PM 1 hour ago, msuwx said: Punting on an entire month a week before the month even begins is a bold strategy, Cotton. It’s been a fairly successful prediction last 6 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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