suzook Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I know I am going to get my ass reemed, but I am ready for spring. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The 6z AI just made a major move towards the Euro and GFS. From the 00z run to the 6z run for Saturday night in the triad, we went from precip with temps in the low 40's to precip with lows around freezing. I guess we'll see where things go. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GSP reached 59 one day this month. Will we reach 60? Puts this month in pretty rare company if we do not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 25 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: The 6z AI just made a major move towards the Euro and GFS. From the 00z run to the 6z run for Saturday night in the triad, we went from precip with temps in the low 40's to precip with lows around freezing. I guess we'll see where things go. TW Which Saturday are we talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 10 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Which Saturday are we talking about? Feb 1st 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, lilj4425 said: Finally some good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GFS has ice in GA and SC at 189. I think it was rain the last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 Signal is still there. All depends on where the high sets up and when the low ejects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GFS is too warm this time. Mostly rain for 2/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Holy sh*t that’s a monster wedge on the 31st on 12z GFS. 1045 sitting in central PA. Storm is hung up (weird evolution) but that is a STRONG wedge as shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Without blocking any storm especially a miller B is going to be timing critical for wintry weather. The HP is going to be transient. For this to work we need the energy out west to eject cleanly to align with the high. We’ve struggled to get our SW to work out this year so that’s a huge concern. Given the wedge look and timing on the backside of the cold push this pattern favors ice but getting the system in quicker and timed with that high is the only way to get any snow from this. I fear we’re tracking an ice storm and don’t see a way around that on the winter weather side of things 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 If it ain’t snow, it can go. I’d rather it be 95 with a DP in the 70s next Saturday than reel in an ice storm. If that’s the option on the table I hope you RDU folks score again and not me! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 This thread has been jumping in January! 102 pages within 23 days is wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, BooneWX said: If it ain’t snow, it can go. I’d rather it be 95 with a DP in the 70s next Saturday than reel in an ice storm. If that’s the option on the table I hope you RDU folks score again and not me! In the modern era, ice storms are always overdone on models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Knowing no other context one would be tempted to say “incoming” if they saw this posted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 12z CMC has some ice too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: In the modern era, ice storms are always overdone on models We’ve had a few if any ice storms in the modern era that involve strong HP to the NE. Most are in-situ CAD events, which do indeed bust 9/10 times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 9 minutes ago, BooneWX said: We’ve had a few if any ice storms in the modern era that involve strong HP to the NE. Most are in-situ CAD events, which do indeed bust 9/10 times. As a kid, I always remember the 96 ICE Storm (Feb 2nd-3rd) that struck the Catawba Valley area. Without power for almost ten days and lows near zero several mornings after the storm. I still remember listening to the trees pop all night long and then still popping days after. Definitely one of the scariest but also extreme/exciting weather events that peaked my interest in keeping up with the weather. That storm was loaded with moisture, and was a recipe for disaster. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 That one sticks in my head too. We had powder snow on top. Pines cracking sounded like shotgun blasts. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 9 minutes ago, WXNewton said: As a kid, I always remember the 96 ICE Storm (Feb 2nd-3rd) that struck the Catawba Valley area. Without power for almost ten days and lows near zero several mornings after the storm. I still remember listening to the trees pop all night long and then still popping days after. Definitely one of the scariest but also extreme/exciting weather events that peaked my interest in keeping up with the weather. That storm was loaded with moisture, and was a recipe for disaster. 96 was great here. I do not recall much ice down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 51 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Knowing no other context one would be tempted to say “incoming” if they saw this posted Yeah, if this were to occur, I highly doubt the low would just slam into an entrenched (even if retreating) 1040 HP. Seems like it would be more suppressed/likely to transfer to the coast Miller A style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Euro is too warm. Nothing but rain for 2/1 - 2/2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Definitely some opportunity for late next week. But THI one is more of a thread the needle deal. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Models showing our persistent west coast ridge returning after the first week of Feb. could be a reaction to seeing the MJO head into the null phase but either way - what a winter. It’s been the reverse for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Models showing our persistent west coast ridge returning after the first week of Feb. could be a reaction to seeing the MJO head into the null phase but either way - what a winter. It’s been the reverse for years. It’s really defied the theory the Arctic needs time to “reload” after a big cold snap. It’s just been cold shot after cold shot since Christmas. Impressive stuff given what was unanimously forecast to be a torch. Sadly it’s been dry but it is the first time since 2017/18 we in Raleigh have had two events in one winter season. Still looking for that big snow but Tuesday nights event was awesome 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockyKnob Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 hours ago, WXNewton said: As a kid, I always remember the 96 ICE Storm (Feb 2nd-3rd) that struck the Catawba Valley area. Without power for almost ten days and lows near zero several mornings after the storm. I still remember listening to the trees pop all night long and then still popping days after. Definitely one of the scariest but also extreme/exciting weather events that peaked my interest in keeping up with the weather. That storm was loaded with moisture, and was a recipe for disaster. The December 2022 storm was like that for Central NC. No power for 8 days outside Chapel Hill, where we lived on a well (ie, no water). I have a whole house generator now because of that experience. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 This is going under the radar but 74% of NC is in a moderate drought now and given the forecast that is likely to worsen going forward. We are definitely going to need some big systems, rain or snow, at some point before the summer or we are going to be in a bad situation given the dry antecedent conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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