metalicwx367 Posted Saturday at 06:42 AM Share Posted Saturday at 06:42 AM I'm riding the Euro for this storm. 5 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet for most of south GA. Anything less I'm calling a bust. /s 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Saturday at 08:19 AM Share Posted Saturday at 08:19 AM 00z Euro Ens has been the best performing initialization run/model in Jan verification data. So this is definitely a positive step. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Saturday at 08:45 AM Share Posted Saturday at 08:45 AM The primary trend that led this in a positive direction is the Polar Vortex over Canada. Notice how the heights are trending west a bit. That allows the polar jet wave over Minnestoa/Dakotas to drop in behind the STJ wave. This promotes a more negative trough access(aka the warm moist firehouse is now pointed NNE instead of ENE). It doesn't take much to change the QPF shield in this scenario given it is mostly dependent on overrunning and an isentropic lift scenario. This also lends credit to the idea when Arctic Airmasses drop-down out of Canada they tend to move like a bowling ball and error a bit west on the models. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted Saturday at 10:21 AM Share Posted Saturday at 10:21 AM 2 hours ago, HKY_WX said: 00z Euro Ens has been the best performing initialization run/model in Jan verification data. So this is definitely a positive step. Snow shield is trending more NW overnight, still watching this today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted Saturday at 10:44 AM Share Posted Saturday at 10:44 AM where would this CMC upset rank among modeling upsets? might be top 5. There's a NAM upset from a storm i remember that shook up the met community that's probably top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted Saturday at 10:50 AM Share Posted Saturday at 10:50 AM Goooooooood morning winter weather nerds It's easy to see that after this last system, nobody got their meds refilled. I do realize this was probably due to taking more than required at the time Anywho, I'm going to repeat for the gazillionth time that there is a ton of energy flying around and until the models start getting a grasp (hopefully by Sunday) of what to expect, the windshield wiping will continue. Patience grasshoppers. In the meantime, please don't forget to get those meds filled and take them as needed, get plenty of rest between model runs, practice your yoga skills to regulate your breathing, drink plenty of fluids and keep some chocolate handy to stop yourself from becoming hangry. Drop your shoulders, sit up straight, take a deep breath, relax your facial muscles, and feel the tension subside. All good now? Yay! Buckle up everyone and good luck! I can't wait to see the pictures of your backyard frozen paradise 12 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted Saturday at 11:15 AM Share Posted Saturday at 11:15 AM Me getting head start on shoveling the predicted show. Getting my picture in early. 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Saturday at 11:28 AM Share Posted Saturday at 11:28 AM Womp womp... I think the triangle is going to end up right on the line, but the triad may be out of the significant snow potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottk Posted Saturday at 11:31 AM Share Posted Saturday at 11:31 AM So in NE SC, our forecast is talking about this storm and the potential for “light snow” on Tuesday into Wednesday, but is also been mentioning freezing rain (now has changed to snow/sleet/freezing rain) on Thursday night and chance for snow Friday as well. im guessing there’s another potential system as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted Saturday at 11:41 AM Share Posted Saturday at 11:41 AM 7 minutes ago, scottk said: So in NE SC, our forecast is talking about this storm and the potential for “light snow” on Tuesday into Wednesday, but is also been mentioning freezing rain (now has changed to snow/sleet/freezing rain) on Thursday night and chance for snow Friday as well. im guessing there’s another potential system as well? Yes there is and nobody is really taking about it because the models didn't even get the current system that is moving through the state now halfway correct until basically gametime. Fun times 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Saturday at 12:23 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:23 PM So we gained the Euro and lost the GFS. That’s a trade I’m willing to make 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Saturday at 12:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:37 PM 11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: So we gained the Euro and lost the GFS. That’s a trade I’m willing to make I think part of what we're seeing is both have a similar track/evolution, but the Euro is picking up on a more expansive precip field. I think it's probably more realistic in that regard, although it clearly is indicating dry air will eat into the moisture and limit QPF. As Eric Webb has indicated, the WAA should beat out dry air relative to what the models are showing. More and more January 2014 seems to be a really solid analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Saturday at 12:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:39 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Saturday at 12:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:50 PM NAM is very amped for what it’s worth (very little) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted Saturday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:54 PM 14 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: South part of my county is the 30-50% chance. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Saturday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:07 PM Wow what a run by the 0z EPS. Hopefully it holds! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:07 PM 1/21-1/22 storm thread activated. 6 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Saturday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:07 PM This is a time when I love being in the southeast corner of wake. EPS looked good . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted Saturday at 01:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:10 PM We need to slow down that NW shift. Remember what happened last week? We don't want any warm influence. That doesn't seem likely, but it could come into play. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted Saturday at 01:22 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:22 PM 30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: NAM is very amped for what it’s worth (very little) Yeah, somebody’s gonna get NAMed this wknd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted Saturday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:18 PM 13 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: After the NAM's performance last event, even 12 hours out it should be banned from use for this storm Hence the implication that it is drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted Saturday at 03:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:45 PM From WRAL Notice the transition gradient, except this time it’s flipped!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted Saturday at 04:26 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:26 PM This is a time when I love being in the southeast corner of wake. EPS looked good .You deserve it. I’m 4 miles NE of RDU so you’re looking better than me for a change ️.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted Saturday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:27 PM 41 minutes ago, EarlGrey said: From WRAL Notice the transition gradient, except this time it’s flipped!! just great. I'm in the very low area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted Saturday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:32 PM https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=seus&pkg=asnowLooks like Canadian is caving some. This looks about right given the NAM and over running synoptic idea. I think ILM/Wallace is a little underdone when considering ratios and proximity to the low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted Saturday at 06:20 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:20 PM 2 hours ago, EarlGrey said: From WRAL Notice the transition gradient, except this time it’s flipped!! They sure put a lot of thought and effort into that map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Sunday at 03:58 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 03:58 AM Maybe we can get a bowling ball ULL in February or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Sunday at 12:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:02 PM The late week system seems like it would have a chance to produce some snow if it’s close enough to get moisture back. Models are reinforcing the cold and with the new idea of an offshore LP development I don’t see why that wouldn’t be snow if we can get the moisture. Still a long shot but it has previously looked more like a rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted Sunday at 12:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:05 PM 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: The late week system seems like it would have a chance to produce some snow if it’s close enough to get moisture back. Models are reinforcing the cold and with the new idea of an offshore LP development I don’t see why that wouldn’t be snow if we can get the moisture. Still a long shot but it has previously looked more like a rain event Don’t do this to us. It’s gonna be either cold and dry or 34 and rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Sunday at 12:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:46 PM 40 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Don’t do this to us. It’s gonna be either cold and dry or 34 and rain. I said a long shot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now