PackGrad05 Posted Saturday at 12:09 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:09 AM The euro ensembles are on board . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx367 Posted Saturday at 12:16 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:16 AM GFS keeps trending warmer here. Almost an all rain event on 18Z. Almost as warm as the UKMET and Graphcast model at the SFC. CMC, EC AIFS, and Euro are much colder at the SFC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Saturday at 12:20 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:20 AM 18z EPS trended NW slightly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted Saturday at 12:22 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:22 AM Start the thread. Winter Storm Brick. I'm not that guy. Somebody do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awesomesauce81 Posted Saturday at 12:24 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:24 AM 7 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said: GFS keeps trending warmer here. Almost an all rain event on 18Z. Almost as warm as the UKMET and Graphcast model at the SFC. CMC, EC AIFS, and Euro are much colder at the SFC. I gotta be selfish and wish for a SE trend atp 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted Saturday at 12:26 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:26 AM 3 minutes ago, Justicebork said: Start the thread. Winter Storm Brick. I'm not that guy. Somebody do it. Brick will start it when he is ready. Call the ball Brick. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted Saturday at 12:27 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:27 AM 3 minutes ago, Justicebork said: Start the thread. Winter Storm Brick. I'm not that guy. Somebody do it. I would but I am afraid that would jinx it. Right now the forecast is for 5-8 inches for New Bern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Saturday at 12:40 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:40 AM 18z CMC still keeps the idea of more snow further inland. It's closer to other guidance but it's not suppressed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Saturday at 12:43 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:43 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted Saturday at 12:43 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:43 AM I’m just waiting for the NAM to come in and be like “Oh you thought this was gonna be a FL storm? Hold my beer”. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Saturday at 12:44 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:44 AM Theirs probably someone on this forum who has tons of experience in these kind of storms.... Will the Low stay where it is now and the precip shield be further NW than modeled of what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted Saturday at 12:46 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:46 AM 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Theirs probably someone on this forum who has tons of experience in these kind of storms.... Will the Low stay where it is now and the precip shield be further NW than modeled of what? I volunteer as tribute. If there’s no NW adjustment at all then I will…I don’t know…eat something gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Saturday at 12:48 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:48 AM 17 minutes ago, Awesomesauce81 said: I gotta be selfish and wish for a SE trend atp No more or less “selfish” than just about anyone here or at any wx bb who wants snow where they live. Totally normal for all. And wishes don’t influence what happens regardless. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted Saturday at 12:51 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:51 AM I do find it somewhat ironic that on a forum based on science one would be offended by “ wishes “ 4 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Saturday at 12:58 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:58 AM 8 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: I do find it somewhat ironic that on a forum based on science one would be offended by “ wishes “ Indeed. On the contrary, it is already determined what will happen. It’s just that the models aren’t nearly smart enough to know. They gradually figure it out. And I’m glad they don’t know because otherwise there wouldn’t be these very interesting forecasting discussions! For example, the NW trend is only because the models were too far SE in the first place. The storm didn’t actually trend NW. 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Saturday at 01:01 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:01 AM 18 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: This is definitely lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KrummWx Posted Saturday at 01:07 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:07 AM I've never started a thread.....beginner's luck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted Saturday at 01:13 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:13 AM This is Brick’s storm. Let’s let him reel it in. If he wants to wait until tomorrow to see if the Euro gets onboard, then I say we wait. 8 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted Saturday at 01:18 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:18 AM Brick has done a good job with this, he needs to bring it home. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Saturday at 01:21 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:21 AM 37 minutes ago, Bevo said: I’m just waiting for the NAM to come in and be like “Oh you thought this was gonna be a FL storm? Hold my beer”. After the NAM's performance last event, even 12 hours out it should be banned from use for this storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Saturday at 01:26 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:26 AM 22 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Not for wake county. It is the highest it’s been in several runs. . And I'm finally done scrolling... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Saturday at 01:46 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:46 AM Seems reasonable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted Saturday at 01:52 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:52 AM Nobody wants to start the thread. On either board. It's a jinx move. There simply isn't enough definitive information yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted Saturday at 01:54 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:54 AM 7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Seems reasonable Heck, I'm right in river city and I wouldn't start a thread this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted Saturday at 01:55 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:55 AM Seems reasonable In my opinion in SE VA he is way too west with snow line. We either get cold and dry or a nice snowstorm.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Saturday at 01:59 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:59 AM I don’t think this is coming all the way back. I think you want to be in New Bern or Kinston here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Saturday at 02:01 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:01 AM 14 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Seems reasonable @Brick Tamlandis this over your house? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 02:02 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:02 AM Just now, BornAgain13 said: @Brick Tamlandis this over your house? Lol Yes it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx367 Posted Saturday at 02:08 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:08 AM 18Z EC AIFS shifted slightly south. Barely anything across NC. Like the Euro, it's very cold at the SFC over S GA and looks like predominantly sleet event based on 850s. Again much better than the 2 inches of freezing rain it had earlier across our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted Saturday at 02:15 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:15 AM Just now, metalicwx367 said: 18Z EC AIFS shifted slightly south. Barely anything across NC. Like the Euro, it's very cold at the SFC over S GA and looks like predominantly sleet event based on 850s. Again much better than the 2 inches of freezing rain it had earlier across our area. As a weather weenie, I must say it’s rather fascinating watching how cold this frigid air mass will actually get and subsequently “push” this wintry precipitation south and east. No one really knows except Mother Nature. I’m in Hillsborough so on the periphery of the NW shift I’ve read so much about. Fingers crossed for a dusting here, but will be really interesting to see how this all plays out with the cold air. Thanks to all who contribute! This is fun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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