BooneWX Posted Friday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:14 PM Canadian a tick further sw with that northern energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Friday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:14 PM Just now, Brick Tamland said: Canadian blowing up in TX. Slightly more suppressed than last run but minor changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx367 Posted Friday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:15 PM 12 minutes ago, GaWx said: Surrealistic to see this for Waycross (from JAX NWS): NORTHERN WARE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEEDHAM AND WAYCROSS 912 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025 MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY MOSTLY SUNNY. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 20 IN THE MORNING. MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. TUESDAY A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOWER 20S. TUESDAY NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY, MAINLY IN THE EVENING. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 15. WEDNESDAY MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 15 IN THE MORNING. It's unreal seeing that for this location in NWS forecast. At this rate if this keeps trending NW, we will end up 33F and rain lol. GFS actually changes us over to rain during the heaviest precipitation period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:16 PM Here it comes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Friday at 04:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:16 PM Overall a step back towards consensus on the Canadian. More positive tilt to the trough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted Friday at 04:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:17 PM Gonna be a light event on the CMC this run for WNC. But, still should be a hit for those east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Friday at 04:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:17 PM We had a storm across NC in Feb of 2010 that was supposed to stay mostly south of the area and mainly a coastal storm, then the short range models all brought it north at the last min and most of the state had a decent snow, not sure how it compares to this one so far but it seems to have some similarities. This is the storm... https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=506 Jet Stream Winds looks pretty similar to what is being modeled on the Canadian vs the Feb 12 2010 storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:18 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:19 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted Friday at 04:20 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:20 PM LOL. You really can't draw up more of the screw zone than McDowell/Burke/foothill areas of WNC this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:21 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:22 PM 1 minute ago, WNC_Fort said: LOL. You really can't draw up more of the screw zone than McDowell/Burke/foothill areas of WNC this year. Yea this one is going to sting big time lol. We’ll be due at some point and I don’t want to hear a thing about how unfair it is, when it’s our time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:22 PM 10:1 ratio and Kuchera. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Friday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:24 PM 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Yea this one is going to sting big time lol. We’ll be due at some point and I don’t want to hear a thing about how unfair it is, when it’s our time. Look at the stamp. It's 120 hours. This will likely change. I actually am glad Wilmington is in the jackpot right now lol. I've see this movie too many times. I always hope for Forest Gump to dump Jenny but he never does. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:24 PM Really like where we are sitting at now with the GFS trending towards the Canadian and UK models the last two runs. Canadian and UK have been very consistent. Hope to see the Euro jump on board soon. But take a blend of the GFS, Canadian and UK and you have a big storm for a lot of folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Friday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:24 PM Just now, Brick Tamland said: 10:1 ratio and Kuchera. My understanding is ratios over about 15:1 are pretty hard to achieve. Also, have to consider compaction being more of a factor when it comes to storm total snow depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNoseHater Posted Friday at 04:26 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:26 PM i would like to know what Brick does for work that allows him to spend his entire week here tracking this. 6 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Friday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:27 PM CMC was a step back but still a good run. 4-6" here and the GFS snow line finally made it up to my neck of the woods. The CMC would of been better but it was a little flatter. @Brick Tamlandthis may be your storm! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Friday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:27 PM Just now, WarmNoseHater said: i would like to know what Brick does for work that allows him to spend his entire week here tracking this. Brick tool work off for 10 days after he sniffed this storm out at hour 320 a week ago 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:27 PM 1 minute ago, WarmNoseHater said: i would like to know what Brick does for work that allows him to spend his entire week here tracking this. I am a great multitasker. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:28 PM Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Brick tool work off for 10 days after he sniffed this storm out at hour 320 a week ago I wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted Friday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:37 PM I'm gonna need you guys from up North to come down here and take back your snow. We can't deal with that many inches of snow on the gulf coast that the Canadian is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCC49er Posted Friday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:37 PM Looking forward to next couple of days. Thanks to all that jump in a decipher the models. Fun to follow along all of these years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:47 PM 20 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said: It's unreal seeing that for this location in NWS forecast. At this rate if this keeps trending NW, we will end up 33F and rain lol. GFS actually changes us over to rain during the heaviest precipitation period. One man’s trash is another man’s treasure. That applies very well when going from the 0Z GFS to 12Z GFS. The common NW trend has suddenly appeared since 18Z/0Z. Whereas it’s obviously much better for those to our NW (most of this forum), it’s a bad trend for NW FL to CHS snow lovers as it went from predominantly snow including some getting the heaviest in several decades to very little or no snow and from hardly any ZR to 0.50-0.75” ZR for many (see below). If we’re lucky it will keep trending NW and we’d then be out of this heavy ZR threat: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Friday at 04:49 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:49 PM UK looks like the icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Friday at 04:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:50 PM We cannot win. Why can’t we just get these models to start falling in line. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted Friday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:53 PM 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: We cannot win. Why can’t we just get these models to start falling in line. GFS uptrend, UK downtrend, I'll take that trade any day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:53 PM Lost the UK and ICON but gained the GFS, while the Canadian remains steady. These models don't want to make it easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted Friday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:54 PM Just now, ATDoel said: GFS uptrend, UK downtrend, I'll take that trade any day! But now it's the UK downtrend + ICON downtrend. We really need the EURO to speak kindly to us to feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:54 PM It’s all noise until king NAM comes into range 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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