StantonParkHoya Posted Friday at 03:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:33 PM 5 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said: I don't think this would be a 10:1 ratio though. The air is going to be very cold and dry. Like where I live, 0.4" would be 4" of snow at 10:1. A 5:1 would be 2". I know everyone knows this...just a thought. But yes, at this point, 0.8" would be a nice surprise. 1.6" translated to snow in Charleston would shut that place down. Yes it would be a higher ratio, thus 0.8 would be a foot of snow most likely 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 03:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:35 PM 22 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said: Suppression city on 12Z ICON. Lol On the 12Z Icon, Gainesville, FL, gets 0.20” of qpf late Tue night with temps of 31F and 850s of +1 to +2C. That’s likely mainly sleet (~0.6” worth) though it could be mainly ZR. Unfortunately WxBell doesn’t have Icon sleet/ZR maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:37 PM Let's hope the GFS continues with the good vibes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Friday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:37 PM At 5h, the RGEM looks poised for a big dog at 84 hours. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 03:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:41 PM We want big dogs only. Time to eat. No pups allowed in this room. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted Friday at 03:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:41 PM 8 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: If this materializes, I would expect ratios on the NW fringes to be in the 15 to 20:1 range. Thank you! I may not understand the ratio and how it works. I though that higher the ratio is wetter the snow. Sorry, I'm confused! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted Friday at 03:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:43 PM 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: . no... please, no, no, no. I rather a foot of snow than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Friday at 03:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:44 PM 6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: At 5h, the RGEM looks poised for a big dog at 84 hours. Does the RGEM generally follow in close step with the CMC? Or more like how the GFS and NAM aren't really closely related? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Friday at 03:45 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:45 PM 7 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said: Thank you! I may not understand the ratio and how it works. I though that higher the ratio is wetter the snow. Sorry, I'm confused! Basically 1 inch of QPF(rain) = 10 inches of snow for a general 10:1 ratio (which is standard in most places except the south because we suck at snow). If it's 15:1 then every tenth of an inch equals 1.5 inches of snow. Which is probably more likely in this scenario on the NW fringes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Friday at 03:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:52 PM Just look at the trend on the GFS on this weekends storm over the past 42 hrs of model runs it's literally went from a non existent storm to moisture almost into Canada. Not saying this is what we will see next week, but at the time we have left I wouldn't rule out a significant run with moisture further north and west. I understand that the air is different and the cold press may keep the track further south, but I also recognize that these things can change significantly in just a two day period of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:57 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Friday at 03:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:59 PM GFS trends more north with precip shield so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Friday at 03:59 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:59 PM GFS looks similar to 06Z perhaps a bit flatter with the wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:00 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:01 PM GFS stays further onshore so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:01 PM 27 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said: Here's 6Z and 0Z below that. Definitely an improvement for yall in the Carolinas. Surrealistic to see this for Waycross (from JAX NWS): NORTHERN WARE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEEDHAM AND WAYCROSS 912 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025 MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY MOSTLY SUNNY. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 20 IN THE MORNING. MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. TUESDAY A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOWER 20S. TUESDAY NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY, MAINLY IN THE EVENING. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 15. WEDNESDAY MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 15 IN THE MORNING. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:02 PM Oh yeah, starting to cook. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Friday at 04:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:02 PM One more tick a little further north again... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted Friday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:03 PM This is gonna trend just far enough north to really make it sting for us in the foothills/WNC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:03 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Friday at 04:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:04 PM Light snow back into the NW piedmont and southern foothills this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Friday at 04:04 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:04 PM Just now, WNC_Fort said: This is gonna trend just far enough north to really make it sting for us in the foothills/WNC. Gotta get the euro on board to believe it will be that far inland. The GFS literally didnt have a storm 3 runs ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Friday at 04:05 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:05 PM Congrats New Bern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:06 PM GFS is on board now for two runs in a row. Looking more like the UK and Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Friday at 04:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:07 PM All models are wrong. Some are useful. Still too much spread, especially with ECMWF and EPS being the most suppressed at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted Friday at 04:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:08 PM When's the next Canadian run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:08 PM 10:1 ratio is less than the Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Friday at 04:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:10 PM 1 minute ago, WNC_Fort said: When's the next Canadian run? Running now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 04:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:13 PM GFS ticked towards the Canadian a bit, as did the NAM at range. Let’s see if the Canadian keeps putting the chips on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 04:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:13 PM Canadian blowing up in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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