BooneWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:03 PM, WXNewton said: 06z and 00z, couple more moves like that and everyone might be happy. Expand Hell I’d take that now. .3” with 20:1 ratios is a big event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Things are looking up this morning. GFS finally trends NW and gets a good storm for more folks. UK still has a good storm, and the Canadian isn't wavering and still has a monster storm. Maybe we'll get the Euro on board sometime in the next couple of days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:03 PM, WXNewton said: 06z and 00z, couple more moves like that and everyone might be happy. Expand Moving towards the UK runs and maybe even the Canadian. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Check out this sounding on the Canadian at GSO. The part of the sounding marked in yellow represents the layer where temps are optimal for dendrites, i.e. the highest possible snow ratios. Never seen anything like it in these parts, pure weenie fuel! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:16 PM, Brick Tamland said: Moving towards the UK runs and maybe even the Canadian. Expand If Raleigh got 0.8” of precip with those temps…. happy happy happy 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Until the Euro and EPS start trending I would use a lot of caution 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:19 PM, wncsnow said: Until the Euro and EPS start trending I would use a lot of caution Expand I predict they get on board soon. As per usual, the mid/long range outlook on the extreme cold (and heat in the summer) is moderating out thus the base of the trough not digging as far south as earlier modeled. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:25 PM, Thrasher Fan said: I predict they get on board soon. As per usual, the mid/long range outlook on the extreme cold (and heat in the summer) is moderating out thus the base of the trough not digging as far south as earlier modeled. Expand It will still be extremely cold. Just not extremely extreme. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 . 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:25 PM, Thrasher Fan said: I predict they get on board soon. As per usual, the mid/long range outlook on the extreme cold (and heat in the summer) is moderating out thus the base of the trough not digging as far south as earlier modeled. Expand Bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:28 PM, BooneWX said: . Expand I’ll take a 2014 repeat all day long! This was only about 1.5 hours or so after it started snowing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:28 PM, BooneWX said: . Expand I was living in Greenville for that one. Remember watching the sleet and thinking it would switch for hours. It finally did but we wasted 1/2 the storm on sleet. Think we got 4-5” but way less than the 8-10” forecast. Still a great storm and a great winter that way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I’m not biting until the ICON gets on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Hey, the longggg range NAM looks more like the Canadian than the EURO. We’re good y’all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 3:09 PM, StantonParkHoya said: I’m not biting until the ICON gets on board Expand Well get ready because it looks much improved at 96hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 3:15 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Hey, the longggg range NAM looks more like the Canadian than the EURO. We’re good y’all Expand DGEX me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 3:16 PM, BooneWX said: Well get ready because it looks much improved at 96hrs Expand It went to hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 3:16 PM, BooneWX said: Well get ready because it looks much improved at 96hrs Expand H5 looks like a step in the right direction but surface is extremely suppressed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 ICON wasn't even close. Its been trending worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 3:18 PM, olafminesaw said: H5 looks like a step in the right direction but surface is extremely suppressed Expand Yep, started strong, didn’t end well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx367 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 3:09 PM, StantonParkHoya said: I’m not biting until the ICON gets on board Expand Suppression city on 12Z ICON. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 up and vanished like a **** in the wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I believe the ICON verification scores are below most every other major global model TBF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 3:09 PM, StantonParkHoya said: I’m not biting until the ICON gets on board Expand It was on board. Now it's going the other way while the GFS gets on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Does anyone have the 6z Euro snow map? I heard it improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 3:21 PM, olafminesaw said: I believe the ICON verification scores are below most every other major global model TBF Expand I actually searched for some verification #'s that included the ICON but couldn't locate any. Prob because it sucks. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I would like to see the Euro climb on board, but seeing the trends with it and the AI version give me some comfort. The AI version is a bit later in getting the system into the east, which actually helps interior sections as it allows the PV over Canada to swing out a bit and relax. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:18 PM, NorthHillsWx said: If Raleigh got 0.8” of precip with those temps…. happy happy happy Expand I don't think this would be a 10:1 ratio though. The air is going to be very cold and dry. Like where I live, 0.4" would be 4" of snow at 10:1. A 5:1 would be 2". I know everyone knows this...just a thought. But yes, at this point, 0.8" would be a nice surprise. 1.6" translated to snow in Charleston would shut that place down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx367 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 3:21 PM, StantonParkHoya said: Does anyone have the 6z Euro snow map? I heard it improved Expand Here's 6Z and 0Z below that. Definitely an improvement for yall in the Carolinas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 3:28 PM, Tony Sisk said: I don't think this would be a 10:1 ratio though. The air is going to be very cold and dry. Like where I live, 0.4" would be 4" of snow at 10:1. A 5:1 would be 2". I know everyone knows this...just a thought. But yes, at this point, 0.8" would be a nice surprise. 1.6" translated to snow in Charleston would shut that place down. Expand If this materializes, I would expect ratios on the NW fringes to be in the 15 to 20:1 range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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