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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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I think it’s getting late early for places in northern MS/AL.  Not necessarily the same in GA/SC.  I think ATL/GSP may still be alive albeit barely.  This has potential to have a late movement up the coast still where those areas may get hit though I still think I’d rather be in Augusta or Columbia 

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2 hours ago, Tacoma said:

The thing is we're told that there is never enough cold air to get snow then when we do get cold for snow there is the problem of suppression,  mercy we can't win for losing.  I guess our only hope is the old NW Trend of which we can't give up on yet.

That's why you want it just cold enough.  It gets just cold enough every winter, but is it precipitating when it's just cold enough? That's the key.  Just cold enough during the event then frost bite cold right after. Too cold before and it's dry.  Get it just cold enough during, then super cold after so it sticks around. Cold air is molasses and we've got mtns to our north...now if they can just be manipulated to raise and lower as needed, lol.... we'd get more snow.

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If the piedmont were in the bullseye at this range we would be toast. The NW trend happens 9/10 times. I don't care about the artic wall, it always happens. It happens in Richmond and DC too. Most ENC snowstorms that I have seen are lows that get going late and drop snow in the northern coastal plain or fish storms that trend NW at the last minute and Wake gets the odd score with the NW cutoff on the fall line like it's opposite day. I like our chances at this range for both systems honestly.

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2016 was the longest lead time lock that I can remember. I was living in Greensboro and my forecasted 12-18 inches was 1/2 inch of snow and 4 inches of sleet. I am really not sure if I can remember a big dog that didn't trend NW 50-150 miles or even more in central NC. Obviously it's a different setup and we could get skunked. I teach economics, not atmospheric science but I watch it happen every storm. Good luck to all!!

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