Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[PackGrad05]

Trends are suppression and drier.  Huffman mentions chances are decreasing in his latest post.  
I will say that local mets (WRAL) even cautioned about this earlier this week.  

[Met1985]

With the severity of the cold air coming in that will squash any system south. That's why the coast was looking really good because the low was forming at the bottom of the trough right along the coast. But the further this pushes south it's no Bueno. 

[PackGrad05]

The one thing I keep remembering is that these super cold air masses are usually overdone on models for our area...   Which would be great in our case and end up putting the system right where we want it.

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

The one thing I keep remembering is that these super cold air masses are usually overdone on models for our area...   Which would be great in our case and end up putting the system right where we want it.

I cannot speak for every cold air mass this season, and would need to look at some past data, but I believe that most of them have been overdone this year.

[ShelbyWx]

Sorry had to screenshot. Still a very strong signal on the blend of models. Pretty sure this is all the major ensembles rolled into one?


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[Bevo]

I will be shocked if it is truly suppressed that much. Could it be? Absolutely. But I personally bet on a trend north 100% of the time, and could probably count on 95% of those bets being right.

Obviously it has happened and will again (I believe one of SC's largest ever snows happened in the lowcountry/coastal region). I'm betting the odds regardless.

[olafminesaw]

28 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

With the severity of the cold air coming in that will squash any system south. That's why the coast was looking really good because the low was forming at the bottom of the trough right along the coast. But the further this pushes south it's no Bueno. 

I agree, and I think we're seeing the threat window narrow to from Southern Alabama up the coast to Wilmington, with a cutoff SE of I95 for best potential. So for posters I that area, although models are currently looking a bit too suppressed they remain in a great spot, while for those of us north of I85, it is increasingly becoming a low probability event (although certainly still lots of time for that to change. I think we all need to be cognizant of location when posting about model runs being good or bad or just whether or not the storm threat remains credible.

[metalicwx367]

22 minutes ago, ShelbyWx said:

Sorry had to screenshot. Still a very strong signal on the blend of models. Pretty sure this is all the major ensembles rolled into one?


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GFS and Euro ensemble means have been skewed by a couple of members that show like 20-30 inches of snow in the Carolinas. 

[SnowDawg]

Yeah, yesterday's 4 run NW trend was clearly a head fake. Deep south/coastal areas definitely in a good spot right now I'd say. Further inland chances a certainly decreasing for anything significant, at least from wave 1. At the very least it'd be nice to get an inch or two of high ratio powder on the northern fringe.

[wncsnow]

ICON is improved 

[wncsnow]

[Brick Tamland]

ICON run was great. Looks like the UK and Canadian from yesterday. Maybe this could be the beginning of good trends today.

[strongwxnc]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

 

Love the over running look to it. The Baja low was pulled in better this time. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, strongwxnc said:

Love the over running look to it. The Baja low was pulled in better this time. 

That and the PV lobe was better oriented and not so far south. 

[olafminesaw]

34 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I agree, and I think we're seeing the threat window narrow to from Southern Alabama up the coast to Wilmington, with a cutoff SE of I95 for best potential. So for posters I that area, although models are currently looking a bit too suppressed they remain in a great spot, while for those of us north of I85, it is increasingly becoming a low probability event (although certainly still lots of time for that to change. I think we all need to be cognizant of location when posting about model runs being good or bad or just whether or not the storm threat remains credible.

This graphic kinda illustrates what I'm thinking as far as a plausible outcome 

[Tony Sisk]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

This graphic kinda illustrates what I'm thinking as far as a plausible outcome 

This would be historic. Never, in recorded history, has the entire state of South Carolina been snow covered. That also applies to Georgia. Ironically, North Carolina has been. And in "recent history. The entire state of NC was covered March 2, 1980; December 25, 2010; February 12-13, 2010

[StantonParkHoya]

Just now, Tony Sisk said:

This would be historic. Never, in recorded history, has the entire state of South Carolina been snow covered. That also applies to Georgia. Ironically, North Carolina has been. And in "recent history. The entire state of NC was covered March 2, 1980; December 25, 2010; February 12-13, 2010

Well, North Carolina is further north with colder temps so it makes sense

[ATDoel]

22 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That's odd, the Kuchera is showing more snow than the 10:1, why is that? Usually it's the opposite.

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, ATDoel said:

That's odd, the Kuchera is showing more snow than the 10:1, why is that? Usually it's the opposite.

Cold air = higher ratios 

[Brick Tamland]

The Kuchera shows 10 inches for me on the ICON and the 10:1 ratio is 6 inches. Must be some awesome rates.

[olafminesaw]

GFS looking better with less HP pushing south early in the run

[WNC_Fort]

35 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Man. Models love to show a WNC/Foothills low spot this winter haha

[metalicwx367]

ICON drops a casual 1.5-2 inches of freezing rain across most of South Georgia with temps in the 28-30 degree range. Damn

[Upstate Tiger]

Through 96, GFS shows a full blown n'or easter hamerring MId Atlantic and EC.  

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS better. It has the storm again. Doesn’t completely trap that Baja low

[sinterpol]

For what it's worth (and I don't know how his reputation is perceived on this board), Ryan Hall posted yesterday about how he thinks eastern NC is def in the game for something. 

[olafminesaw]

The Canadian is cooking up some good soup

[wake4est]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

The Canadian is cooking up some good soup

yeah it is. go canada!

[HKY_WX]

2 real players on the field.

#1 is the Northern Branch. It will be favorable for most of next week (less so the further out you go into next week). With the PNA ridge being so strong , the tendency will be for the models to underestimate the how far south shortwaves (aka upper level disturbances/vorticity) associated with the polar jet dive south. From experience you usually see the models resolve this as you get inside of 5 days. If we do see a bit more digging, then it will  likely pop a weak low in the GOM and (Depending on how much it trends) would favor a suppressed overruning system over the deep south and central/eastern NC.

#2 is the cutoff STJ pacific system that is trending slower. This is likely not to come into play till later next week. How the northern jet interacts with that and how much cold air will be left is important to contemplate as to whether that could potentially be snow, ice, or rain. This could be a classic case of pacific moisture chasing a retreating cold air HP. I would favor in-situ CAD/Ice over western NC for that system.

See the trends below for the last several runs on the GFS. Notice the Pacific system is trending slower and the Northern jet is starting to trend a bit better.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

https://x.com/AWxNYC/status/1879927365410910504