NorthHillsWx Posted Thursday at 09:17 AM Share Posted Thursday at 09:17 AM 49 minutes ago, Met1985 said: We are 7 days away from this event and yall think the models have this laid out already? Good luck with that. Again and Again we have seen major changes just 2 to 3 days before a storm hits. Don't get sucked in or out at the long lead time. 7 days? More like 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted Thursday at 10:25 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:25 AM HOLY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Thursday at 10:25 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:25 AM GFS doesn’t even show wave 1 this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted Thursday at 10:28 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:28 AM That was a mess. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Thursday at 10:28 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:28 AM GFS has lost the first storm. Second storm is a mixed bag to rain for most. Joy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Thursday at 10:35 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:35 AM We’ve reached a crossroads with the models. The 21-22nd system is our snow chance. The second system is charging into a stale retreating airmsss and will not work for most outside the mountains. GFS isn’t even suppressed, it hangs the energy back up and doesn’t even have a storm. If that happens, there’s no NW trend to root for, this is DOA. Better hope other models are right because the GFS is going the wrong way in a hurry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Thursday at 10:48 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:48 AM 12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: We’ve reached a crossroads with the models. The 21-22nd system is our snow chance. The second system is charging into a stale retreating airmsss and will not work for most outside the mountains. GFS isn’t even suppressed, it hangs the energy back up and doesn’t even have a storm. If that happens, there’s no NW trend to root for, this is DOA. Better hope other models are right because the GFS is going the wrong way in a hurry Did the Euro take a step towards the GFS in terms of holding back the energy, or is it simply suppressed and so we kind of have three scenarios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Thursday at 11:00 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:00 AM 10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Did the Euro take a step towards the GFS in terms of holding back the energy, or is it simply suppressed and so we kind of have three scenarios? Euro had the storm but was suppressed. EPS actually very good. GFS only model without the storm. GEFS better than Op but ticked down for most 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx367 Posted Thursday at 11:14 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:14 AM 14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Euro had the storm but was suppressed. EPS actually very good. GFS only model without the storm. GEFS better than Op but ticked down for most Increasing number of ensemble members no longer showing the first wave. There are still some big hits in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Thursday at 11:36 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:36 AM In other news, Sunday Night continues to look more interesting up this way... 6z Euro and GFS both trended better with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Thursday at 11:44 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:44 AM UK and CMC have been consistent. GFS has been all over the place lately, and the op doesn't match the ensembles. Euro op run wasn't as good as the last one, but the enaembles actually increased a little compared to the previous run. Still a lot to iron out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Thursday at 12:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:14 PM I never understood why people were even looking at that late week wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted Thursday at 12:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:23 PM 8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I never understood why people were even looking at that late week wave It’s weather. We are nerdy weather freaks. It’s how we roll 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted Thursday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:54 PM Ok, sorry for the dumb question... can someone please explain what suppression is in this context? I'm generally pretty good at picking up the general meaning from context but this one eludes me somehow... (I don't have meteorology training; I'm just an engineer with a VFR pilot's understanding of weather) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Thursday at 01:25 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:25 PM Ok, sorry for the dumb question... can someone please explain what suppression is in this context? I'm generally pretty good at picking up the general meaning from context but this one eludes me somehow... (I don't have meteorology training; I'm just an engineer with a VFR pilot's understanding of weather)Cold air shunts everything way Southeast of where you want itSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Thursday at 01:31 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:31 PM The storm only has a chance to develop once the cold push lets up. Maybe we can get the second storm to work out if it comes earlier or later,but I fear the only reason it gets going is because of the escape route to the NE that is provided by the weakness in the ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Thursday at 01:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:42 PM Day 5 ish…..Bout that time to do the ol’ cycle! Days 7-10: This looks awesome Days 4-6: WHERE DID IT GO. *Cliff diving ensues*, people question their passion for weather, anecdotes of storms’ past begin, climate conversations launch. Days 2-3: WE ARE SO BACK 1 day away: the short range is over amplified and out to lunch Event: God the NAM was right again 3 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted Thursday at 01:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:48 PM 9 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Day 5 ish…..Bout that time to do the ol’ cycle! Days 7-10: This looks awesome Days 4-6: WHERE DID IT GO. *Cliff diving ensues*, people question their passion for weather, anecdotes of storms’ past begin, climate conversations launch. Days 2-3: WE ARE SO BACK 1 day away: the short range is over amplified and out to lunch Event: God the NAM was right again lol, so true. I’ll start, IIRC, the Boxing Day storm went poof on day 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Thursday at 01:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:50 PM 6 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Day 5 ish…..Bout that time to do the ol’ cycle! Days 7-10: This looks awesome Days 4-6: WHERE DID IT GO. *Cliff diving ensues*, people question their passion for weather, anecdotes of storms’ past begin, climate conversations launch. Days 2-3: WE ARE SO BACK 1 day away: the short range is over amplified and out to lunch Event: God the NAM was right again I wouldn't say the storm is lost yet. Yeah the GFS lost it but right now it is not performing well. I think it is in 4th place behind the euro, CMC, and Ukie. They all have it so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Thursday at 01:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:53 PM Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILM2714 Posted Thursday at 01:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:53 PM Relatively ignorant noob question here but has the data been aggregated to establish which models ultimately perform better? I assume a model’s performance may vary when applied to tropical systems vs snow and ice events…? Apologies if this is an incredibly redundant question for the board. There are so many references to different models that sometimes I get lost in the sauce and wish I knew which models to focus on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted Thursday at 01:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:55 PM 11 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Day 5 ish…..Bout that time to do the ol’ cycle! Days 7-10: This looks awesome Days 4-6: WHERE DID IT GO. *Cliff diving ensues*, people question their passion for weather, anecdotes of storms’ past begin, climate conversations launch. Days 2-3: WE ARE SO BACK 1 day away: the short range is over amplified and out to lunch Event: God the NAM was right again NAM seems to always be right. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted Thursday at 01:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:57 PM 2 minutes ago, ILM2714 said: Relatively ignorant noob question here but has the data been aggregated to establish which models ultimately perform better? I assume a model’s performance may vary when applied to tropical systems vs snow and ice events…? Apologies if this is an incredibly redundant question for the board. There are so many references to different models that sometimes I get lost in the sauce and wish I knew which models to focus on. Not really, just a blend of all of them at this point. Although the CMC always seems to more wrong than the others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted Thursday at 01:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:57 PM 2 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said: NAM seems to always be right. When we are closer, sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Thursday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:58 PM 3 minutes ago, ILM2714 said: Relatively ignorant noob question here but has the data been aggregated to establish which models ultimately perform better? I assume a model’s performance may vary when applied to tropical systems vs snow and ice events…? Apologies if this is an incredibly redundant question for the board. There are so many references to different models that sometimes I get lost in the sauce and wish I knew which models to focus on. Not a noob question and to answer it, yes. There’s verification data available- in fact, I saw a chart a while back but that may have been one for the legacy models vs AI. Nonetheless, it’s a metric that’s tracked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Thursday at 02:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:04 PM The NAM was not right on several things with this last storm. Really the only thing the NAM was correct on around my area was the warm nose to an extent but that only lasted for about 2 hours here and did not verify in other mountain towns. The NAM screwed TN by being overamped and them not seeing snow totals anywhere close to the NAM. I don't think the NAM got close to what Atlanta saw in terms of snowfall. I lot about what the NAM showed was WRONG. Honestly the RGEM did a much better job in my opinion and the Euro did decent as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Thursday at 02:08 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 02:08 PM The Euro is still the king and leads verification scores. It was the driest model and was correct the last storm. It has a little cold bias lately that I have noticed but overall I still weigh it about 80% and the other models about 20. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted Thursday at 02:08 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:08 PM ALL the models will be wrong for some of us at any given time. Its mother nature after all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Thursday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:13 PM From a Climo perspective, I wouldn't bank on moisture displacing a true arctic airmass like we are seeing. Again there is some chance I think that the back end of this cold push has some potential, if ridging can relax gradually 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted Thursday at 02:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:15 PM Ya’ll, I’m going to repeat this again. There’s so much energy flying around and nothing has made it onshore yet. Just like this last storm, we are not going to know until all of the players are on the field. Yes, I know it’s a week (or under) away, but it wasn’t until it was actually unfolding in TX that we even had a clue what to expect with this last system. Higher resolution models are needed here and until it’s all within range, we will continue with this madness 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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