TullyHeel Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 58 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Yep, GEFS continues the North trend. I would be pretty surprised if the OP didn't come back north by 12z tommorow or so Goes from nothing in NC to the whole state covered. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Am I a psycho for being thankful there were no over amped ones in there? I was worried about that the last few days but suppression to the point our energy in the SW is severed from the flow was not on my bingo board today. Suppressed is too broad here. There’s no storm. It holds the energy back until the cold press passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 "One of these things is not like the other ! " 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 20 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: I don’t know what’s happening anymore. What days are we looking at again? There are 3 events in total. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Unfortunately the majority of this on the 12Z Euro AI is ZR in my area with temps just at or just below 32, 850s at +3 to +5, and north winds keeping the warming from the ocean away. Not good. Climo does not agree with that much zr there, does it? I surely hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Today's gfs runs 0z 6z 12z 18z 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 End of the 18z Euro 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 So either I get a foot of snow or it’s going to be sunny. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: Jacksonville, FL has a whopping 0.7” on the 18Z GEFS for 1/21-2! That’s near 10 times the normal annual. Just unreal. This run has easily the heaviest snow mean yet for coastal SC to Jacksonville to Gainesville to the coast of LA! Nine members have snow at Jacksonville! @pcbjr 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Dr no being all sassy as it ends 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Looks like the big dog was about to eat on the 18z Euro 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 16 minutes ago, GaWx said: Jacksonville, FL has a whopping 0.7” on the 18Z GEFS for 1/21-2! That’s near 10 times the normal annual. Just unreal. This run has easily the heaviest snow mean for coastal SC to Jacksonville to Gainesville to the coast of LA! Nine members have snow at Jacksonville! Last time it snowed in Jacksonville in 1989 and climo has changed massively since. I don't want to say 100% it's not going to happen but it's not going to happen unless something crazy like 1993 superstorm happened again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 31 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: End of the 18z Euro Looks like the Canadian and UK runs earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 yep sassy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Euro, Canadian and UK are all similar and haven't had wild swings like the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Place is dead for a snowstorm showing up on models less than 7 days out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Place is dead for a snowstorm showing up on models less than 7 days out We have to pace ourselves. It’s been nonstop since New Year’s. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Place is dead for a snowstorm showing up on models less than 7 days out I’m going to bed in a bit. Gonna need all that energy this weekend to manifest a winter storm watch by late Sunday/early Monday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Place is dead for a snowstorm showing up on models less than 7 days outSnow is old hat for those of us in northern Wake.. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: We have to pace ourselves. It’s been nonstop since New Year’s. Thats no joke! Plus in between models right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx367 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 50 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: So either I get a foot of snow or it’s going to be sunny. A foot of snow here, 2 inches of ice, or 33 and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: The AI is insistent on a raging ice storm with mid 20’s at the surface and a perfect storm track. Color me skeptical It will come for you first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: We have to pace ourselves. It’s been nonstop since New Year’s. This for sure. I feel like we started tracking last weeks threat window shortly after Christmas. I think I'm still trying to catch up on sleep from all the last minute model chaos from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The GFS is a great model..but also an excellent troll. It's been complete garbage on so many storms. Yet It's got the most wins against the Euro compared to all the other models. So even when it's the outlier..it can never be discounted. Everyone is forced to nervously hang on to every run with bated breaths. quite hilarious in a twisted cosmic sense. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: The GFS is a great model..but also an excellent troll. It's been complete garbage on so many storms. Yet It's got the most wins against the Euro compared to all the other models. So even when it's the outlier..it can never be discounted. Everyone is forced to nervously hang on to every run with bated breaths. quite hilarious in a twisted cosmic sense. GEFS is not so bad. Let's give the operational a few runs to see where it goes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, lilj4425 said: So either I get a foot of snow or it’s going to be sunny. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 18z AI trended way south but at least it lost that ridiculous 850 warming and was all snow in the piedmont areas. Honestly not a bad look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 18z AI trended way south but at least it lost that ridiculous 850 warming and was all snow in the piedmont areas. Honestly not a bad look Virtually no precip in WNC. Disaster run. This was a cave to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 hours ago, dsaur said: Climo does not agree with that much zr there, does it? I surely hope not. Tony, I’ve been able to find only two other instances with at least about that much here: late Jan of 1922 (predecessor storm to tragic Knickerbocker Theatre storm in DC) and late Feb of 1914 (that one also had a decent amount of sleet). Early Jan of 2018 had a good bit but less than half that and thus limited outages. So, yes climo says not impossible but heck no unless we get a 100 year storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 14 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: Virtually no precip in WNC. Disaster run. This was a cave to the GFS. Actually it’s a fantastic spot 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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