Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[WXNewton]

I feel like in the last storm euro ens. matched up very closely to the end results here in Catawba County and they did not jump back and forth a whole lot leading up to the storm. For 3-5 days in a row they showed us anywhere from 1.8"-2.5" and that's about exactly what we got. I would say they were by far more consistent and accurate to the end result than any other solutions that were on the table.

[Cheeznado]

The GEFS is the only model that went the wrong direction , now only 6 runs with any substantial snows here, and well less than half have any snow. Let's hope it is an outlier. 

[NC_hailstorm]

Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System,or known as Euro AI or (Big AL) is cooking today.

 

 

 

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Columbia 

[fig]

2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Columbia 

Is this something that anyone can access? Interested to see what it shows for Wilmington, NC KILM

[wncsnow]

5 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System,or known as Euro AI or (Big AL) is cooking today.

 

 

 

 

What day is that?

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System,or known as Euro AI or (Big AL) is cooking today.

 

 

 

 

As good as the AI has been its been jumpy post 120.  It keeps going more with the GFS idea of the later wave and the system digging for China.  I am not sure I buy that.  I think something between the UKMET/ICON where it ejects along the Gulf from TX vs coming up out of the oil rigs is more likely.

[buckeyefan1]

 

[Brick Tamland]

Canadian ensemble mean.

 

[NC_hailstorm]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

What day is that?

That's hour 174 but moisture is already up in the Carolinas at 168 so day 7/8

[dogwoods]

Y'all I'm a big lurker and I am embarrassed to put up an IMBY post... but need advice.  Am traveling to the midwest with spouse and kids to visit with my in-laws on Friday, supposed to be returning to RDU (thru Charlotte) by noon on Wednesday.  Currently looking into changing flights for early morning Tue thru ORD, but would cost $280 to change.  Can't decide if I should pull the trigger...

 

 

[ILM2714]

If ILM gets a couple of inches I’ll be over the moon!

[snowinnc]

2 minutes ago, dogwoods said:

Y'all I'm a big lurker and I am embarrassed to put up an IMBY post... but need advice.  Am traveling to the midwest with spouse and kids to visit with my in-laws on Friday, supposed to be returning to RDU (thru Charlotte) by noon on Wednesday.  Currently looking into changing flights for early morning Tue thru ORD, but would cost $280 to change.  Can't decide if I should pull the trigger...

 

 

Knowing RDU and snowfall, I wouldn’t change your flights. Even if it *does* snow, I don’t think it will be enough to affect flights.

[wncsnow]

8 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

That's hour 174 but moisture is already up in the Carolinas at 168 so day 7/8

Ok better than day 8/9 like some models are showing. 

[GaWx]

26 minutes ago, suzook said:

LMFAO. The coast of GA and SC getting 15 inches of snow? Funny shit.

Something of that sort happened in this area in January of 1800. I’m not making this up. Was a multi-hundred year snowstorm obviously.

[fig]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Something of that sort happened in this area in January of 1800. I’m not making this up. Was a multi-hundred year snowstorm obviously.

15" here in ILM in Dec 1989!

[DeepSouthSC]

3 minutes ago, fig said:

15" here in ILM in Dec 1989!

Don't forget 1973 as well. 

[Tony Sisk]

21 minutes ago, dogwoods said:

Y'all I'm a big lurker and I am embarrassed to put up an IMBY post... but need advice.  Am traveling to the midwest with spouse and kids to visit with my in-laws on Friday, supposed to be returning to RDU (thru Charlotte) by noon on Wednesday.  Currently looking into changing flights for early morning Tue thru ORD, but would cost $280 to change.  Can't decide if I should pull the trigger...

 

 

I would not change my flights if I were you. 

[olafminesaw]

May include some from Sunday night but still...

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Awesomesauce81 said:

The UK would definitely be the best solution for our area if we were to get anything 

An amazing (for 6 days out) 16 of 20 (80%) of 12Z GEPS members have some form(s) of wintry precip in our area 1/21-2! Of those 16, 9 are primarily ZR and 7 are primarily snow/sleet.

 On 12Z GEFS, it is 14 of 30 that have wintry precip in our area during 1/21-2. But 10 of these 14 are mainly snow and sleet vs only 4 mainly ZR.

12Z EPS snow mean: highest I’ve ever seen for us with it ~1.5”! Out of the 50, ~1 in 4 (13) have 1”+ of snow at Hunter! It doesn’t show sleet or ZR. 22 of the 50 have snow.

[StantonParkHoya]

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

May include some from Sunday night but still...

lol. New Bern with a 70% chance

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[mclean02]

12 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Where does one go to get these ?

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

Where does one go to get these ?

Weatherbell 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[mclean02]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ update found a free one in case someone wants to look at plume.

[Brick Tamland]

7 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

12 of them are big hits here and the rest are hardly nothing. 

[Tony Sisk]

18 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

how does one read this?  What does it mean? Thanks!

[Kimmie]

30 minutes ago, fig said:

15" here in ILM in Dec 1989!

I was a senior at UNCW, living downtown. It was so much fun!!!