BornAgain13 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Euro is coming in with another wave on Thursday 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 5:59 PM, BornAgain13 said: Euro is coming in with another wave on Thursday Expand Similar to Canadian and GFS has second wave...Oh boy so much energy on the map I think this will be a few interesting days of model watching ahead. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:01 PM, WXNewton said: Similar to Canadian and GFS has second wave...Oh boy so much energy on the map I think this will be a few interesting days of model watching ahead. Expand Yes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Canadian and UK are similar with a bigger storm. GFS and Euro are a little similar with two different waves but at different times and have smaller storms. Euro was less suppressed with the first wave than previously. Still seems like a lot of different solutions on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 So 12z Canadian crushes Western NC and has a catastrophic ice storm in deep south, UK is more of a central and ENC storm, Euro hits parts of western NC with a finger of snow to start but much heavier in ENC and GFS is suppressed and depressed. So all and all the storm is there but timing, track and evolution of the low and how strong the push of arctic air is still anyone's guess. Blend ensembles and we continue to watch for trends heading into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 5:43 PM, WXNewton said: UK is a big hit for central and ENC... A blend of that and the Canadian would be nice for everyone on the board. Expand this would be so South Carolina! For the entire state to get snow except the mountains of SC! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 5:21 PM, gtg947h said: Yeah disaster would be an understatement on that. I'd welcome a good "snow day" break from work (and laugh darkly at upper management's pleading to work from home if we have power) but that's no bueno. We somehow kept power through the whole hurricane late last year, but I have a feeling an ice storm may hit us worse and be more damaging/have worse people impact (since so many people are dependent on heat pumps/resistive heat vs. gas or oil furnaces)... Expand 12Z UKMET gives us 2” of qpf with our temperatures at 32 or lower from very late Mon night (1/21) til 24 hours later (near sunrise Wed morning 1/22)!! The good news is that a fair bit is snow is implied. The 850s are only +1 to +2 for the first 9 hours or so (which tends to be cold enough for sleet more often than ZR) before dropping to potential snow levels of 0C to as low as -1C for part of the time. So, this may all be almost all sleet and snow on the 12Z UKMET and would be historic. Of course the odds are low (standard disclaimer out 144 hours), but we’re getting closer! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The 2nd wave mid/late next week will be the bigger storm. Hopefully it's not a cutter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx367 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 5:58 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said: Expand Here's the accumulated freezing rain chart for us southern Georgia and Florida peeps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awesomesauce81 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:11 PM, GaWx said: 12Z UKMET gives us 2” of qpf with our temperatures at 32 or lower from very late Mon night (1/21) til 24 hours later (near sunrise Wed morning 1/22)!! The good news is that a fair bit is snow is implied. The 850s are only +1 to +2 for the first 9 hours or so (which tends to be cold enough for sleet more often than ZR) before dropping to potential snow levels of 0C to as low as -1C for part of the time. So, this may all be almost all sleet and snow on the 12Z UKMET and would be historic. Of course the odds are low (standard disclaimer out 144 hours), but we’re getting closer! Expand The UK would definitely be the best solution for our area if we were to get anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 5:43 PM, WXNewton said: UK is a big hit for central and ENC... A blend of that and the Canadian would be nice for everyone on the board. Expand This sort of map is a classic @WNC_Fortand @wncsnownightmare (but one I think is more likely to happen) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:18 PM, Awesomesauce81 said: The UK would definitely be the best solution for our area if we were to get anything Expand A weak low crossing central FL (not N FL) like the 12Z UK does is what we want to root for. History of past winter storms here agrees. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Would love to see the GFS and Euro come back to the UK and CMC solution. I don't think it was uncommon in the past when we actually did get a storm for the Euro and GFS to sniff out a storm in the long range and then it look worse while the UK and CMC pick up the storm, and then the Euro and GFS come back to it again, just not as big as the monster solutions they had before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Out of all the guidance we just saw at 12z... This is probably the one that bares the most weight. We know how good the EPS can be. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:24 PM, BornAgain13 said: Out of all the guidance we just saw at 12z... This is probably the one that bares the most weight. We know how good the EPS can be. Expand Very good signal this far out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:24 PM, BornAgain13 said: Out of all the guidance we just saw at 12z... This is probably the one that bares the most weight. We know how good the EPS can be. Expand Don't see an eps 'mean' like that too often 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Best run yet on Euro Ens, here's the last 4 runs. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:30 PM, WXNewton said: Best run yet on Euro Ens, here's the last 4 runs. Expand Yep and it's not even finished... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 EPS mean has the heaviest axis of snow where the CMC and UK did, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:31 PM, BornAgain13 said: Yep and it's not even finished... Expand Anything after Wednesday is not going to work for non-mountain/Virginia folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Was actually thinking of going to the mountains next weekend and now you up in here saying I should go to the beach?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:30 PM, WXNewton said: Best run yet on Euro Ens, here's the last 4 runs. Expand That is absolutely amazing. That’s probably the best EPS run central NC has had 6-7 days out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:08 PM, Tony Sisk said: this would be so South Carolina! For the entire state to get snow except the mountains of SC! Expand LMFAO. The coast of GA and SC getting 15 inches of snow? Funny shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just hoping the excess cold doesn't push the storm to Cancun. Lord we have to double thread two needles around here. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KrummWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 How did the Canadian and UK perform on our last system this far out? I didn't save any of their maps. My imprssion has always been that the UK is less than reliable, Canadian super hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 5:43 PM, WXNewton said: UK is a big hit for central and ENC... A blend of that and the Canadian would be nice for everyone on the board. Expand Not totally unprecedented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:52 PM, KrummWx said: How did the Canadian and UK perform on our last system this far out? I didn't save any of their maps. My imprssion has always been that the UK is less than reliable, Canadian super hit or miss. Expand Both way too cold and south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I still like the idea right now of places like BHM/ATL being on the north end of this and it being more a central AL-GA-coastal SC NC event. But I am still wary of the fact that these days these cold air masses tend to be overdone on models at this range, if thats the case again something near or just south of this previous event is likely. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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