Droessl Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 9 minutes ago, CentralNC said: I have a feeling trends will go our way today. WRAL already saying next Wednesday is looking interesting is a higher level of confidence 7 days out than I'm used to 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 21 hours ago, GaWx said: GFS runs with significant SE coastal wintry precip within 1/21-2: Jan 11 6Z and 12Z Jan 12 6Z and 18Z Jan 13 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, 18Z Jan 14 0Z, 6Z, 12Z So, 11 of last 14 and 8 in a row! The 12Z CMC has ZR later, on 1/23-4, with it still falling some areas especially just inland at the end (fortunately only light along coast SAV northeastward): The 6Z GFS was the 1st run since way back at the Jan 12 12Z run with no significant SE coastal wintry precip. during 1/21-2. So, there had been 10 GFS runs in a row like that just prior to today’s 6Z. And not only that but there’s no precip of any kind in any of the SE US 1/21-2! Interesting! GFS runs with significant SE coastal wintry precip within 1/21-2: Jan 11 6Z and 12Z Jan 12 6Z and 18Z Jan 13 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, 18Z Jan 14 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, 18Z Jan 15 0Z but not on 6Z (1st since 12Z Jan 12) A delay of anything in the SE til after 1/22 means a higher risk of not having enough cold air for a storm to intermingle with for widespread SE wintry precip since 1/20-2 is when the coldest of the air has been plunging down and fresh enough for a winter storm. Near perfect timing is crucial for the SE as we know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, Droessl said: WRAL already saying next Wednesday is looking interesting is a higher level of confidence 7 days out than I'm used to My iPhone apple weather app says snow next Tues. That's all the confidence I need. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 13 minutes ago, CaryWx said: My iPhone apple weather app says snow next Tues. That's all the confidence I need. AND next Friday. But I preferred yesterday when it was giving us 17-21" 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 ICON is suppressed, much like its earlier runs. Coastal areas in GA, SC and the FL panhandle get snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 ICON drops 6"+ on new Orleans with temps in the mid 20s 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Not surprised to see the models suppressing the storm now. Remember the Christmas 2010 storm? The models showed a big storm, then suppressed it all the way down to Cuba before it trended back NW and ended up being a big storm for NC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 ICON continues with the suppressed look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 22 minutes ago, wncsnow said: ICON is suppressed, much like its earlier runs. Coastal areas in GA, SC and the FL panhandle get snow. The 12Z Icon gives SAV area 6-8” of snow (7.9” at further inland airport and 6.3” at Hunter near the city). This looks like legit snow on the clown map since 850s are near or just below 0C and 2m temps are in upper 20s and then fall to mid 20s during it. Adjusting down for what Kuchera may have had, it would likely be closer to 5-7”. Whereas that would be amazing and I’d obviously love to see it, SAV hasn’t received that much snow since way back on March 3, 1837! So, SAV getting anywhere near this much snow is, needless to say, extremely unlikely especially since this is still 6.5 days away. https://www.weather.gov/chs/todayinwxhistory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I am very much OK with the ICON look at this juncture 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 ICON also very close to something SUN PM especially for triad, SW VA folks on here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: I am very much OK with the ICON look at this juncture I’m ok with it too as painful as it is to see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GSP has my high at 24 next Tuesday! Got the cold to work with. No just need the time frame to set up and produce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: ICON also very close to something SUN PM especially for triad, SW VA folks on here I'm watching that like a Hawk for up here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I'm watching that like a Hawk for up here lol Unfortunately I think this is the type of event that tends to trend northwest. But maybe this year is an exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: Unfortunately I think this is the type of event that tends to trend northwest. But maybe this year is an exception. GFS really cranks it up near us Sunday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, BornAgain13 said: GFS really cranks it up near us Sunday night. Yeah, a little warm for accumulations, but certainly could be some mood flakes, or perhaps a car topper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 24 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: ICON continues with the suppressed look. ICON Suppression equals South Depression! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Yeah, a little warm for accumulations, but certainly could be some mood flakes, or perhaps a car topper! Could be a nice surprise for someone. That’s a potent piece of energy flying through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 36 minutes ago, wncsnow said: ICON is suppressed, much like its earlier runs. Coastal areas in GA, SC and the FL panhandle get snow. I know that the standard NW trend will probably happen, but if the Florida panhandle gets more snow than RDU, I’m going to think that we’re all cursed for some reason when it comes to snow. Come on winter weather!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Yea the GFS was quite Interesting for Sunday!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GFS has some snow here Sunday night into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Gfs looks like it will be very suppressed too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I'd gladly take this, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GFS for next week is really pressed down by the cold. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 GFS doesn't have a storm at all through Wednesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Who needs the Tuesday storm when you can have the Sunday storm!?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 12Z GFS has snow for a portion of coastal SC and NC Tue night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GFS holding the energy back. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Sharks get some accumulation just off the coast of SC per GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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