Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[franklin NCwx]

The run to run h5 difference is laughable 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like snow here for at least 20 hours on the GFS before changing to sleet.

[BornAgain13]

This is a Major ICE and SNOW Storm for certain areas per GFS

[Brick Tamland]

And then back to snow to end.

[BornAgain13]

@Brick Tamland, 12z GFS says hey Brick, this run is Sick!

[BornAgain13]

Foot to a Foot in a half in central and eastern NC and Southern and SE VA

[Prismshine Productions]

This is a Major ICE and SNOW Storm for certain areas per GFS

Gave me Dec. 2004 flashbacks looking at that... The entire lowcountry of SC with over an inch of ZR

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[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

@Brick Tamland, 12z GFS says hey Brick, this run is Sick!

[Brick Tamland]

[Upstate Tiger]

Somebody's in for a nice surprise on Sunday

[StantonParkHoya]

End of days storm: the Brick storm!!

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

End of days storm: the Brick storm!!

Carolina Crusher 2: Electric Boogaloo

[CaryWx]

Just amazing stuff on these 12z runs

[BornAgain13]

12z CMC with a storm as well but looks further south and ICY

[StantonParkHoya]

I need to understand what I causing the warm nose on this .. the low is way off the coast

[GaWx]

 12Z GFS fwiw (taking with a huge grain) as a result of 24 hours straight of ZR has close to the worst icestorm on record in the SAV area with 1.45” (Hunter) and 1.63” (airport further inland) at reporting stations and a general 1.25-1.65” over much of the area away from the islands. The 6Z GFS also had a lot of ZR with 1.30” at airport and 0.66” at Hunter. Statesboro had a whopping 1.89”! Needless to say, I might be taking a 2nd Jan trip to snowy Atlanta (in this case for two reasons) if something like this were to somehow materialize:

[Prismshine Productions]

 12Z GFS fwiw (taking with a huge grain) as a result of 24 hours straight of ZR has close to the worst icestorm on record in the SAV area with 1.45” (Hunter) and 1.63” (airport further inland) at reporting stations and a general 1.25-1.65” over much of the area away from the islands. Needless to say, I might be taking a 2nd Jan trip to snowy Atlanta if something like this were to somehow materialize:

Got the Kuchie snowfall?

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[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Got the Kuchie snowfall?

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See above as I added it centered on AL/GA/SC.

[Prismshine Productions]

See above as I added it.

Thank you! I may not live down here any more, but I still got my family in Orangeburg and Walterboro I need to look after

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[CaryWx]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 12Z GFS fwiw (taking with a huge grain) as a result of 24 hours straight of ZR has close to the worst icestorm on record in the SAV area with 1.45” (Hunter) and 1.63” (airport further inland) at reporting stations and a general 1.25-1.65” over much of the area away from the islands. Needless to say, I might be taking a 2nd Jan trip to snowy Atlanta (in this case for two reasons) if something like this were to somehow materialize:

Can you post a pic of this in NC?  The ice accrual I mean

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Can you post a pic of this in NC?  The ice accrual I mean

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[olafminesaw]

13 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I need to understand what I causing the warm nose on this .. the low is way off the coast

Typically to get a transition zone that mixes with overrunning events. Basically the cold front stalls over our region and warm moist air to the south is what is both providing the moisture as well as warming the mid levels, while cold air reinforces itself from the cold/dry air to the north. An overrunning event can produce heavy wintry precip without a strong low pressure system developing along the boundary at all, although this does tend to happen eventually as the push of warm air occludes with the cold front once it rounds the corner of the trough. 

https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/behind-the-weather-the-science-behind-overrunning-100931920

 

[VARTV]

28 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Can we lock this in? 16.3 for Virginia Beach...

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Thank you! I may not live down here any more, but I still got my family in Orangeburg and Walterboro I need to look after

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 Here’s 12Z GFS sleet for all to look at and especially for @dsaur

[wncsnow]

UK doesn't go out far enough but it sure looks primed for a storm as well.

[stormwatcherJ]

I can't get drawn into this one 9 days out, you folks are crazy! Last weekend I'm supposed to be getting 2-4 inches and end up with .25 of snow and a trace of freezing rain. Don't do it to me again. 

[Snowacane]

21 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I need to understand what I causing the warm nose on this .. the low is way off the coast

Brick yelling with joy

[dsaur]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

12Z Icon is much drier than most other models for 1/21 (similar to 0Z run) but it is likely delayed but not denied as the run stops too early to see. It has light snow moving ENE over extreme S LA from a W GOM development while the SE is very cold due to a 1040 mb Siberian high right there:

 

 

Note the split flow with the very cold WNW flow into the Midwest while at the same time there’s moistening WSW H5 flow over the SE going over the lower level very cold dome:

wsw flow.  One of the keys.