Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[NorthHillsWx]

31 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

We're getting toO exuberant.  The letdown will be painful.

What’s dead may never die

[BornAgain13]

The 0z Euro AI is a big Winter Storm for next week as well.

[StantonParkHoya]

Trying to figure out how there’s warm nose showing up with a weak SLP and 19 degree surface temp, 1042 HP in Pa

[Dunkman]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Trying to figure out how there’s warm nose showing up with a weak SLP and 19 degree surface temp, 1042 HP in Pa

I mean I’ve had ZR here with those surface temps before. It finds a way!

[hrtsdsn]

Y'all are a hoot this morning  

We are eternal optimists !!

[CentralNC]

14 minutes ago, hrtsdsn said:

Y'all are a hoot this morning  

We are eternal optimists !!

More like gluttons for punishment.

[NorthHillsWx]

11 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

More like gluttons for punishment.

More like some of us haven’t seen an inch of snow since 2022 and we’ve jumped into the loony bin 

[NorthHillsWx]

To reel the forum back in, let’s look at where we stand on the Brick storm:

1) there is an incredible storm signal for the 21-23rd timeframe

2) ensemble support is HIGHER than it was at this range with our last system (this is when it started to fade)

3) H5 setup looks much better than the last system and cold air might be fresher

4) Pretty much every run cycle is showing a major winter storm on one of the ops. In my experience this only occurs with the big storms. I’m not saying a big storm is coming, I’m saying models are showing us there is support for a large storm and the pieces of energy to get one are there. Major storms don’t hide their origins. This one has higher end potential and models are showing us just that

5) No can kicking. This timeframe has been steady. We’re into the 1 week out phase. This is important bc we are not talking fantasy land anymore, like when Brick made potentially the call of the millennium 

[dsaur]

47 minutes ago, hrtsdsn said:

Y'all are a hoot this morning  

We are eternal optimists !!

One of these days we'll get one of these.  The more improbable the more possible.  Maybe it's this storm, and it will be 40 below after

[BooneWX]

Idc about the storm itself rn as long as it keeps showing up somewhere in the south on the model runs. All I care about is that big ass high parking itself right where it needs to be. I ain’t doing one of these in-situ messes again. 

[wxdawg10]

The stove is hot and always burns but for some reason..people keep touching it

[NorthHillsWx]

13 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Idc about the storm itself rn as long as it keeps showing up somewhere in the south on the model runs. All I care about is that big ass high parking itself right where it needs to be. I ain’t doing one of these in-situ messes again. 

Amen

[NorthHillsWx]

One thing I am very concerned with this storm is there is nothing to keep it from going NW. There is no blocking. If the energy gets hung up out west or the cold push is over modeled we will see significant NW movement as we approach that timeframe. This is where this system differs greatly from the last one where NW movement was always limited. We really are dependent here on that MW high both in strength and location. I know the upside is there but this scares me as it could be a massive rain storm and that is a very valid possibility. Hate to say this but this is definitely a thread the needle situation reliant upon the pre storm cold push and HP for storm track. Do not think a rainstorm is off the table this go round 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One thing I am very concerned with this storm is there is nothing to keep it from going NW. There is no blocking. If the energy gets hung up out west or the cold push is over modeled we will see significant NW movement as we approach that timeframe. This is where this system differs greatly from the last one where NW movement was always limited. We really are dependent here on that MW high both in strength and location. I know the upside is there but this scares me as it could be a massive rain storm and that is a very valid possibility. Hate to say this but this is definitely a thread the needle situation reliant upon the pre storm cold push and HP for storm track. Do not think a rainstorm is off the table this go round 

This is why I’m absolutely adamant about the HP. It’s not just about the CAD, it’s about forcing the storm to not cut. Although I do think one thing we have working for us at the moment is how sharp this cold front will be and its potential position. It’s less likely to cut when it has an easy baroclinic zone to ride. Path of least resistance.

[BooneWX]

Another thing to like is that we are seeing consistency on the modeling for the ridge out west to be oriented in a more conducive manner for ejecting that Baja low east. Last storm the pacific jet kept tilting that ridge east too much. 

[buckeyefan1]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One thing I am very concerned with this storm is there is nothing to keep it from going NW. There is no blocking. If the energy gets hung up out west or the cold push is over modeled we will see significant NW movement as we approach that timeframe. This is where this system differs greatly from the last one where NW movement was always limited. We really are dependent here on that MW high both in strength and location. I know the upside is there but this scares me as it could be a massive rain storm and that is a very valid possibility. Hate to say this but this is definitely a thread the needle situation reliant upon the pre storm cold push and HP for storm track. Do not think a rainstorm is off the table this go round 

 

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This is why I’m absolutely adamant about the HP. It’s not just about the CAD, it’s about forcing the storm to not cut. Although I do think one thing we have working for us at the moment is how sharp this cold front will be and its potential position. It’s less likely to cut when it has an easy baroclinic zone to ride. Path of least resistance.

Indeed  

The majority of our frozen memory makers as well as our agonies of defeat come from threats like this. Living in the SE as a winter weenie is not for the faint of heart  

[olafminesaw]

Always good when the new England crowd is thinking the pattern will be too suppressed for them

[GaWx]

12Z Icon is much drier than most other models for 1/21 (similar to 0Z run) but it is likely delayed but not denied as the run stops too early to see. It has light snow moving ENE over extreme S LA from a W GOM development while the SE is very cold due to a 1040 mb Siberian high right there:

 

 

Note the split flow with the very cold WNW flow into the Midwest while at the same time there’s moistening WSW H5 flow over the SE going over the lower level very cold dome:

[BornAgain13]

12z GFS with a storm forming in Texas at 153...

[BornAgain13]

Snow starting in Georgia at 159

[Brick Tamland]

[BooneWX]

1050 over Iowa should do the trick. It ain’t cutting.

[olafminesaw]

Nice to see the Atlantic isn't bath water for once

[Brick Tamland]

[BornAgain13]

Good Winter Storm for a lot of the SouthEast.

[Brick Tamland]

Incoming on the GFS.

[Brick Tamland]

[BooneWX]

Brick’s storm survives another suite 

[BornAgain13]

12z GFS With another Low pressure incoming right after this one....

[BooneWX]

My goodness. Two lows. Back to back hits in the same day.