BooneWX Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I recall a not so different look for the Valentine’s storm of 2014. That was an absolute crippler of a storm for western NC.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 How could so many of you in this group doubt the southeast ridge? Have ye no faith? What a year we’re having for folks to feel more confident in the cold press over the SER getting into position. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The 18Z GFS tells us that this remains at least a potential close call for ~1/21! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 15 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 18Z GFS tells us that this remains at least a potential close call for ~1/21! Yep. ENC keeps getting pounded every run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Yep. ENC keeps getting pounded every run. Honestly an impressive string of runs for ENC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Right where we want it this far out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fig Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 13 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Right where we want it this far out. Right where I want it this time next week, personally! 3 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Need ensembles to tick back up. Happy to still see the storm on some ops runs but a lot of the excitement last couple days was (I know the EURO and GFS mega storm runs reeled in a ton of folks) due to strong ensemble support for the timeframe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 32 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Honestly an impressive string of runs for ENC What is this thing called "snow" of which you speak. We in ENC do not understand... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamecockinupstateSC Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Big time increase on the 18z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 14 minutes ago, gamecockinupstateSC said: yea that’s an absolutely honking signal. The type of mean we were seeing at day 9/10 with the last storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Georgia-centric 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 So... Are we tracking the system next Mondayish or is it the one after that's our best shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Massive overrunning setup on the end of the GFS. Obviously there is somewhat of a storm signal at this range with a decent pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: So... Are we tracking the system next Mondayish or is it the one after that's our best shot? 1/21-22 seems to have the strongest potential, similar to 1/10-11 for last week’s storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1/21-22 seems to have the strongest potential, similar to 1/10-11 for last week’s storm. Yep here's hoping for the real cold to back off just enough to allow the moisture up into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Ensembles much improved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 20 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: Massive overrunning setup on the end of the GFS. Obviously there is somewhat of a storm signal at this range with a decent pattern. Would love to see another January 88 overrunning storm with an arctic front draped across the south. 14” of snow and temps in the mid teens. It was one for the ages. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 53 minutes ago, BooneWX said: yea that’s an absolutely honking signal. The type of mean we were seeing at day 9/10 with the last storm Here are some comparisons between 1/10-1 as of 1/2 and possible 1/21-2 (11 days later) as of today (1/13): 1. 12Z EPS: 1/2 run for 1/10-11 1/13 run for 1/21-2: eerily similar in GA/SC and a bit more in NC 2. 12Z GEFS: 1/2 run for 1/10-11: 1/13 run for 1/21-2: significantly more N GA, N SC, and NC with ~same S GA and S SC 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 25 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: Ensembles much improved Unfortunately, the mean is being heavily skewed by just a handfull of members. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 23 minutes ago, Tullioz said: Unfortunately, the mean is being heavily skewed by just a handfull of members. Yes but the dry ones are mostly misses to the east/south, suppressed. That is a good miss to have at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 36 minutes ago, Tullioz said: Unfortunately, the mean is being heavily skewed by just a handfull of members. In P23 we trust. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 30 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Yes but the dry ones are mostly misses to the east/south, suppressed. That is a good miss to have at this range. Most have the storm. That’s all we need for now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Who's ready for 0z? Hopefully some good runs tonight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Here are the op model surface low positions as of 1/1-3 runs for 1/9-10 that I saved. They all verified poorly since the actual track was much further NW than the models showed: 12Z 1/1 Euro 0Z 1/2 GFS 12Z 1/2 GFS 12Z 1/2 Icon 12Z 1/2 CMC 12Z 1/3 Icon 18Z 1/3 Euro-AI Some models shifted NW on 1/3. Then on 1/4 (6 days before the storm), just about all modeled well down into the Gulf tracks that gave SE coast significant wintry precip were abandoned as the NW trend continued, including in the ensemble means. So, that means the NW trend was strongest 6-7 days prior to the 1/10 storm. So, looking ahead to 1/21 and projecting similar timing, I’ll be looking to see if the far SE tracks giving significant coastal wintry are largely abandoned 6-7 days prior to 1/21 or on 1/14-5. So, by Wednesday we’ll see what happens. Could this time be different? Of course it could. What is different with this one? - More runs develop the low not til offshore the SE coast as opposed to mainly developing in the Gulf for the 1/10 storm. - A much colder Siberian high. For example, Chicago’s coldest preceding and during the 1/10 storm was only down to 14F. Progs for 1/20 are for 15-20F colder - Related to this, the surface high coming down is progged to maintain much stronger intensity just before and on 1/21. Most model runs at this forecast point had at best a rapidly weakening 1020s high to the N or NE of the 1/10 storm, which verified pretty closely. The Euro had even weaker with an Alberta clipper low to the north on many AI runs. Remember that? In stark contrast, the progged high to the north of the upcoming threat is mainly 1038-1045 or 15-20 mb stronger! - So, we’ll have to see how this evolves. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6 hours ago, wxdawg10 said: I'm convinced alot of posters here enjoy purposely making themselves suffer. I suggest reading Coldrain's "what have we learned" Essay after that epic bust a few years ago. Remember it, learn it, live it. You'll be happier. Please tell me you have a link. CR was one of the greats when I lived in the Carolinas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 0z ICON cold and dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 0Z Icon is significantly colder run vs runs from 12/24 hours ago. Coldest of season by far 1/20-1 and bone dry/no nearby surface low. Has lows on 1/21 of 10/9 at ATL/RDU! The plumbers would be busy! Minn/SPaul highs below 0F 1/19-20! Chicago barely gets above 0F on 1/20! Most of TN highs on 1/20 only in teens! Unlike those stupid cold Euro runs for last week, this frigid run actually seems possible due to Siberian high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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