Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BooneWX]

I recall a not so different look for the Valentine’s storm of 2014. That was an absolute crippler of a storm for western NC.


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[BooneWX]

How could so many of you in this group doubt the southeast ridge? Have ye no faith? What a year we’re having for folks to feel more confident in the cold press over the SER getting into position. 

[GaWx]

The 18Z GFS tells us that this remains at least a potential close call for ~1/21!

[StantonParkHoya]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The 18Z GFS tells us that this remains at least a potential close call for ~1/21!

Yep. ENC keeps getting pounded every run.

[NorthHillsWx]

11 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Yep. ENC keeps getting pounded every run.

Honestly an impressive string of runs for ENC

[Brick Tamland]

Right where we want it this far out.

[fig]

13 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Right where we want it this far out.

Right where I want it this time next week, personally!

[NorthHillsWx]

Need ensembles to tick back up. Happy to still see the storm on some ops runs but a lot of the excitement last couple days was (I know the EURO and GFS mega storm runs reeled in a ton of folks) due to strong ensemble support for the timeframe 

[cbmclean]

32 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Honestly an impressive string of runs for ENC

What is this thing called "snow" of which you speak.  We in ENC do not understand...

[gamecockinupstateSC]

[BornAgain13]

Big time increase on the 18z GEFS

[BooneWX]

14 minutes ago, gamecockinupstateSC said:

yea that’s an absolutely honking signal. The type of mean we were seeing at day 9/10 with the last storm

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Georgia-centric

[BornAgain13]

So... Are we tracking the system next Mondayish or is it the one after that's our best shot?

[snowmaker13]

Massive overrunning setup on the end of the GFS. Obviously there is somewhat of a storm signal at this range with a decent pattern. 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

So... Are we tracking the system next Mondayish or is it the one after that's our best shot?

1/21-22 seems to have the strongest potential, similar to 1/10-11 for last week’s storm.

[Tacoma]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1/21-22 seems to have the strongest potential, similar to 1/10-11 for last week’s storm.

Yep here's hoping for the real cold to back off just enough to allow the moisture up into the area.  

[snowmaker13]

Ensembles much improved

[Upstate Tiger]

20 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Massive overrunning setup on the end of the GFS. Obviously there is somewhat of a storm signal at this range with a decent pattern. 

Would love to see another January 88 overrunning storm with an arctic front draped across the south.  14” of snow and temps in the mid teens.  It was one for the ages.  

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

yea that’s an absolutely honking signal. The type of mean we were seeing at day 9/10 with the last storm

Here are some comparisons between 1/10-1 as of 1/2 and possible 1/21-2 (11 days later) as of today (1/13):

1. 12Z EPS:

1/2 run for 1/10-11

 

1/13 run for 1/21-2: eerily similar in GA/SC and a bit more in NC

 

 

2. 12Z GEFS:

 1/2 run for 1/10-11:

 

1/13 run for 1/21-2: significantly more N GA, N SC, and NC with ~same S GA and S SC

[Tullioz]

25 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Ensembles much improved

Unfortunately, the mean is being heavily skewed by just a handfull of members.

[StantonParkHoya]

23 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

Unfortunately, the mean is being heavily skewed by just a handfull of members.

Yes but the dry ones are mostly misses to the east/south, suppressed. That is a good miss to have at this range.

[lilj4425]

36 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

Unfortunately, the mean is being heavily skewed by just a handfull of members.

In P23 we trust. 

[NorthHillsWx]

30 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Yes but the dry ones are mostly misses to the east/south, suppressed. That is a good miss to have at this range.

Most have the storm. That’s all we need for now

[BornAgain13]

Who's ready for 0z? Hopefully some good runs tonight. 

[GaWx]

 Here are the op model surface low positions as of 1/1-3 runs for 1/9-10 that I saved. They all verified poorly since the actual track was much further NW than the models showed:

12Z 1/1 Euro

 

0Z 1/2 GFS

 

12Z 1/2 GFS

12Z 1/2 Icon

 

12Z 1/2 CMC

 

12Z 1/3 Icon

 

18Z 1/3 Euro-AI

 Some models shifted NW on 1/3. Then on 1/4 (6 days before the storm), just about all modeled well down into the Gulf tracks that gave SE coast significant wintry precip were abandoned as the NW trend continued, including in the ensemble means. So, that means the NW trend was strongest 6-7 days prior to the 1/10 storm.

 So, looking ahead to 1/21 and projecting similar timing, I’ll be looking to see if the far SE tracks giving significant coastal wintry are largely abandoned 6-7 days prior to 1/21 or on 1/14-5. So, by Wednesday we’ll see what happens.

 Could this time be different? Of course it could. What is different with this one?
 

- More runs develop the low not til offshore the SE coast as opposed to mainly developing in the Gulf for the 1/10 storm.

- A much colder Siberian high. For example, Chicago’s coldest preceding and during the 1/10 storm was only down to 14F. Progs for 1/20 are for 15-20F colder

- Related to this, the surface high coming down is progged to maintain much stronger intensity just before and on 1/21. Most model runs at this forecast point had at best a rapidly weakening 1020s high to the N or NE of the 1/10 storm, which verified pretty closely. The Euro had even weaker with an Alberta clipper low to the north on many AI runs. Remember that? In stark contrast, the progged high to the north of the upcoming threat is mainly 1038-1045 or 15-20 mb stronger!

- So, we’ll have to see how this evolves.

[StormyClearweather]

6 hours ago, wxdawg10 said:

I'm convinced alot of posters here enjoy purposely making themselves suffer. 

 

I suggest reading Coldrain's "what have we learned" Essay after that epic bust a few years ago. Remember it, learn it, live it. 

You'll be happier.

Please tell me you have a link. CR was one of the greats when I lived in the Carolinas!

[BornAgain13]

0z ICON cold and dry

[GaWx]

0Z Icon is significantly colder run vs runs from 12/24 hours ago. Coldest of season by far 1/20-1 and bone dry/no nearby surface low. Has lows on 1/21 of 10/9 at ATL/RDU! The plumbers would be busy!

Minn/SPaul highs below 0F 1/19-20! Chicago barely gets above 0F on 1/20! Most of TN highs on 1/20 only in teens! Unlike those stupid cold Euro runs for last week, this frigid run actually seems possible due to Siberian high.