VABILLUPS1 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:37 PM, Cheeznado said: 12Z GFS does have southern snow- 16" in Myrtle Beach, 1.5" here. These details will change of course, the main thing is we need to see if the ensembles begin to have more members support another snow event. Expand CMC/ICON seem to argue the event at 180 is more TN Valley/CNTRL or NRN MA. Its possible if the cold push is stronger that might be a GA/SC event too but I'd lean now more to MS/AL/TN and NE front there. Might even be a tough ask for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 5:21 PM, SnowGoose69 said: CMC/ICON seem to argue the event at 180 is more TN Valley/CNTRL or NRN MA. Its possible if the cold push is stronger that might be a GA/SC event too but I'd lean now more to MS/AL/TN and NE front there. Might even be a tough ask for NC Expand How about Asheville? Would AVL be too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 5:22 PM, snowmaker13 said: How about Asheville? Would AVL be too warm? Expand Being so far west I would put them in the risk for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 5:26 PM, Brick Tamland said: Expand This GEFS run’s mean was colder than most of the recent ones for 1/20-22 at H5 and 2m. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 12Z Euro very cold and dry 1/20-22. Cold likely overdone of course, which in this case would be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 GEFS ensembles 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 5:43 PM, GaWx said: 12Z Euro very cold and dry 1/20-22. Cold likely overdone of course, which in this case would be a good thing. Expand Hopefully it will come back around, but good knowing it did have a storm yesterday for the same time period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 GEFS slight trend to less snow, mainly based on one run, the rest are dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 12Z EPS snow mean: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Both ensemble means went way down 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:30 PM, GaWx said: 12Z EPS snow mean: Expand Ensemble trends going the wrong direction, the fat lady is warming up... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:34 PM, Cheeznado said: Ensemble trends going the wrong direction, the fat lady is warming up... Expand The “Brick Storm” on life support already on D9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Can't see past this frame, but kinda surprised there's not some kind of weak surface reflection in the gulf at 168 given the jet amplification. The +PNA is pretty extreme, so it wouldn't take much to have a shortwave dig farther southwest than current advertised. It will be something to keep an eye on. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2025011312/ec-fast_z500_mslp_namer_8.png 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:34 PM, Cheeznado said: Ensemble trends going the wrong direction, the fat lady is warming up... Expand The EPS mean precip during 1/21-3 has dropped a lot since 24 hours ago: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:38 PM, NorthHillsWx said: The “Brick Storm” on life support already on D9 Expand I changed my avatar to me yelling at the models to make the storm happen. Sometimes you have to show them who's the boss. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:54 PM, Brick Tamland said: I changed my avatar to me yelling at the models to make the storm happen. Sometimes you have to show them who's the boss. Expand Or all the hot air is melting away all the snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 7:05 PM, buckeyefan1 said: Or all the hot air is melting away all the snow Expand You sound like my wife. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 So now what do we talk about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I'm convinced alot of posters here enjoy purposely making themselves suffer. I suggest reading Coldrain's "what have we learned" Essay after that epic bust a few years ago. Remember it, learn it, live it. You'll be happier. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 7:52 PM, lilj4425 said: So now what do we talk about? Expand Another cold week coming next week (1/20-6) per the last two Euro Weeklies runs. Then the cold is done per many runs in a row. Will it be drier than normal for most? Latest ensemble means have gotten drier. Current 2m: H5: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I see we have recovered from the sugar high of those back-to-back GFS/Euro runs yesterday. All hope is still lost; carry on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Only ray of hope I can offer is usually with these super Arctic outbreaks, they usually leave for good with a grand finale. Like PD1 in 1979. Winter came to an abrupt halt after that storm (which was super cold). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Guys I'm afraid with such a cold push that all the moisture will be shoved to the Carribean and we will be left with super cold and dry. We've seen this before, it warms up and rains. We finally get cold but it's so cold it keeps the moisture well to our south. We can't win for loosing. Think I rather have 70 and sunny if we can't get winter precipitation. Threading the needle isn't the word for what we always face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 9:06 PM, Tacoma said: Guys I'm afraid with such a cold push that all the moisture will be shoved to the Carribean and we will be left with super cold and dry. We've seen this before, it warms up and rains. We finally get cold but it's so cold it keeps the moisture well to our south. We can't win for loosing. Think I rather have 70 and sunny if we can't get winter precipitation. Threading the needle isn't the word for what we always face. Expand It is far from certain whether or not there actually will be super cold in the SE. Just go back to last week, when super cold was showing on a number of runs at about this point in advance, especially the Euro. The SE ended up with much below normal cold along with a widespread winter storm but no super cold. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 We went through the dry suppressed look on the ensembles last time too. Give it time and see if the cold push actually verifies to the extent being shown. More often than not it moderates with time which also tends to pull the moisture back north. We should only be signal hunting at this range, and cold air looks to be around with moisture in the Gulf. Time to play the waiting game again. 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 9:27 PM, SnowDawg said: We went through the dry suppressed look on the ensembles last time too. Give it time and see if the cold push actually verifies to the extent being shown. More often than not it moderates with time which also tends to pull the moisture back north. We should only be signal hunting at this range, and cold air looks to be around with moisture in the Gulf. Time to play the waiting game again.Bingo. Suppressed and stupid cold looks are good honestly at range because the models overdo the degree of cold push approx. 95% of the time. What you don’t want is riding right on the edge 10 days out for a bomb. That’s gonna trend NW and rain on you 9/10 times. If Randolph and Mortimer Duke are freaking out about an inch of freezing rain destroying the FCOJ market in Florida a week out, that right there is our sweet spot.. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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