Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BooneWX]

31 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

That’s a hell of a signal at this range. 

[suzook]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

That’s a hell of a signal at this range. 

Its just the Euro, no other models as of yet.

[purduewx80]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EURO AI has a monster storm

It has consistently shown a modest snowfall for the mountains into VA Sunday-Monday, but it’s nowhere near a monster anywhere. After that it overwhelms the Southeast with cold/dry weather. 

[Cheeznado]

00Z EPS members, only out of 50 show any really big snow. About 50% show a trace to a few inches.  06Z GEFS is actually a bit more bullish with 3 members showing 6"+, like the EPS it has half dry, half with some snow. At this range looking at the ensembles is the only way to go, op models are useless.

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

It has consistently shown a modest snowfall for the mountains into VA Sunday-Monday, but it’s nowhere near a monster anywhere. After that it overwhelms the Southeast with cold/dry weather. 

He was referring to the 0z run of the monster. At 6z, it's gone. 

[NorthHillsWx]

There are two opposite but very possible ways to lose and both are shown on models. 
1) Suppression: our system is squashed by the extreme Arctic airmass and we miss out. I really don’t think this will happen. I think the cold airmass is likely over modeled and we will see some relaxing of the cold push as we get closer

2) Cold hung up west of apps. I know this sounds funny given the Euro extreme cold but we’ve seen this tune before and Canadian demonstrates it perfectly. There are some hints of a SER forming this weekend and we should be well acquainted with those impacts and setting the frontal zone up over the Carolina’s versus over or off the coast. You end up with an overrunning event for the Tennessee valley. I am much more worried bout this than suppression with the ridge orientation out west and lack of blocking over the North Atlantic even after this weekends rain storm
 

There will be cold and moisture during the 19-26th period but there are clear cut ways to lose that are quite opposite of each other. Something in between is our path to victory. 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

He was referring to the 0z run of the monster. At 6z, it's gone. 

Correct. Should have elaborated 

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There are two opposite but very possible ways to lose and both are shown on models. 
1) Suppression: our system is squashed by the extreme Arctic airmass and we miss out. I really don’t think this will happen. I think the cold airmass is likely over modeled and we will see some relaxing of the cold push as we get closer

2) Cold hung up west of apps. I know this sounds funny given the Euro extreme cold but we’ve seen this tune before and Canadian demonstrates it perfectly. There are some hints of a SER forming this weekend and we should be well acquainted with those impacts and setting the frontal zone up over the Carolina’s versus over or off the coast. You end up with an overrunning event for the Tennessee valley. I am much more worried bout this than suppression with the ridge orientation out west and lack of blocking over the North Atlantic even after this weekends rain storm
 

There will be cold and moisture during the 19-26th period but there are clear cut ways to lose that are quite opposite of each other. Something in between is our path to victory. 

 A general model cold bias that includes the SE US is always a factor that should be considered because it often (though not always) leads to less cold air verifying vs what is shown, say, 8-10 days out (like what happened last week…keep in mind those extreme runs with widespread single digits to middle teens) and consistent with that storm tracks correcting to reality further NW (like also just happened as instead of offshore the SE coast it was mainly well inland). 
 

 But every case is different. So, we’ll see. For one important thing, how strong will the strongest 1/19-23 Arctic high actually be? If it ends up there’s a 1050ish coming down that maintains itself well into the 1040s for quite awhile and keeping in mind Siberian cold would be involved, that would favor deeper into the SE wintry precip possibilities and thus affect more people though it could also end up dry. I’d rather have the big high and see how it plays out.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Models likewise greatly overdid advertised heat last summer in the midrange, especially GFS. 

[NorthHillsWx]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 A general model cold bias that includes the SE US is always a factor that should be considered because it often (though not always) leads to less cold air verifying vs what is shown, say, 8-10 days out (like what happened last week…keep in mind those extreme runs with widespread single digits to middle teens) and consistent with that storm tracks correcting to reality further NW (like also just happened as instead of offshore the SE coast it was mainly well inland). 
 

 But every case is different. So, we’ll see. For one important thing, how strong will the strongest 1/19-23 Arctic high actually be? If it ends up there’s a 1050ish coming down that maintains itself well into the 1040s for quite awhile and keeping in mind Siberian cold would be involved, that would favor deeper into the SE wintry precip possibilities and thus affect more people though it could also end up dry. I’d rather have the big high and see how it plays out.

This setup actually gives Deep South areas like yours a shot if one of those Siberian 1045+ highs moves into the lakes and not straight down. Cold might overwhelm the storm track for most but it could get unusual areas into a storm chance 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

BAM Weather (BAMWX)

 

 

@bamwxcom

 

·

43m

One feature that has continued reoccur throughout this winter has been what we call the +TNH or the Hudson Bay Vortex. We haven't had a consistent +TNH pattern through winter in several years. The only recent year that had a strong +TNH was 2022

[GaWx]

 In contrast to that clownish video circulating on Facebook yesterday that sounded like “The Day After Tomorrow”, this one done yesterday by pro met. Jason Simpson in Birmingham is excellent. He shows yesterday’s 12Z Euro snow, but puts it into proper perspective:

https://m.facebook.com/reel/633732655893596/?referral_source=external_deeplink

[Brick Tamland]

ICON had some wintery precip at the end of the run.

 

[BornAgain13]

18 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

ICON had some wintery precip at the end of the run.

 

Taken verbatim this would be a good scenario for some. Look at that HP to the North. In a good location!

[purduewx80]

Re: February, most of the Gulf is still balmy so severe wx is gonna pick up in a hurry  

https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-24-0016.1

[NorthHillsWx]

33 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

ICON had some wintery precip at the end of the run.

 

Same setup as last week except with a HP in correct spot 

[Brick Tamland]

GFS looks good again between 201 and 219.

[Cheeznado]

12Z GFS does have southern snow- 16" in Myrtle Beach, 1.5" here. These details will change of course, the main thing is we need to see if the ensembles begin to have more members support another snow event. 

[GaWx]

Just remember that the 12Z GFS solution showing major wintry precip in the SE is merely an improbable option because it is but one of many possibilities still 9 days out. Just think of it as an active ensemble member. And don’t forget about a handicap when you realize there’s a cold bias.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

GFS looks good again.

Charleston crusher

[Brick Tamland]

GFS less suppressed this time.

[NorthHillsWx]

54 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This setup actually gives Deep South areas like yours a shot if one of those Siberian 1045+ highs moves into the lakes and not straight down. Cold might overwhelm the storm track for most but it could get unusual areas into a storm chance 

Prophetic 

[olafminesaw]

Feels like a more plausible version of yesterday's Euro run.

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Feels like a more plausible version of yesterday's Euro run.

More plausible than that insane run but still highly improbable of course with it being 9 days out and showing an extremely rare solution per long historical records. If this were say only 5 days out and runs were pretty consistent, it would be a much different story though even then still far from being set in stone, of course.

 Keep in mind that there are only 3 pretty similar analogs with this degree of snowfall deep to the SE coast to the 12Z GFS over the last 50+ years:

2/1973

12/1989

1/2018

 So, only about once every 20 years or so.

[WXNewton]

Canadian also has a storm...

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Canadian also has a storm...

“SIRI, define overrunning”

[Brick Tamland]

8 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Canadian also has a storm...

Looks a little like the ICON run. Best thing is we have a storm showing up on different models. Plenty of time to iron out the details and there will be lots of back and forth between now and next week.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks a little like the ICON run. Best thing is we have a storm showing up on different models. Plenty of time to iron out the details and there will be lots of back and forth between now and next week.

8-10 days out: pattern recognition. Pattern looks favorable for a winter storm threat. Box checked

[snowmaker13]

Trough looks more negative this run. Just a little more West and negative this could be a big deal!

[olafminesaw]

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

8-10 days out: pattern recognition. Pattern looks favorable for a winter storm threat. Box checked