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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I swear that's not me.

Are you sure? From this FB link, here are some quotes from him:

“To cover the entire E US in snow and ice”; “Coldest January in over 300 years”; “Last well into Feb giving us 2 weeks of freezing temperatures, something we’ve never seen before“; “This will be the biggest PV to ever hit the US”

 I’m not making this up. Listen for yourselves.

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Are you sure? From this FB link, here are some quotes from him:
“To cover the entire E US in snow and ice”; “Coldest January in over 300 years”; “Last well into Feb giving us 2 weeks of freezing temperatures, something we’ve never seen before“; “This will be the biggest PV to ever hit the US”
 I’m not making this up. Listen for yourselves.

I know he is just going for the clicks, but after the hurricane in September, nothing would surprise me…


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7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro: Brick for your sanity don’t look at either the run or the rest of this post. Please!

 The extreme of extreme SE winter storm is completely gone. Wow, what a shocker!

And here I thought I was going to get three feet of snow and the entire state would be shut down for a month. :( Can I have 70 and sunny now? :D 

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Are you sure? From this FB link, here are some quotes from him:

“To cover the entire E US in snow and ice”; “Coldest January in over 300 years”; “Last well into Feb giving us 2 weeks of freezing temperatures, something we’ve never seen before“; “This will be the biggest PV to ever hit the US”

 I’m not making this up. Listen for yourselves.

Will the Thames have ice fairs again?? Will we see Snow Leopards?? Ohhh...Yeti....I want to see a Yeti...and create ice crystals when I breathe. The moles are all giddy.

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Just now, GaWx said:

I’ve got someone still texting me at 1AM because of the 12Z Euro! What will the 12Z show? Stay tuned!

Why are the models so bad.  One give me 8 inches and one gives me less than half an inch.  How can I make reliable decisions about the weather 10 days from now when they give me such disparate information??  Why won't congress pay for super accurate space tech level winter weather predictions??? Oh, the humanity.

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It's probably going to be hard to avoid a robust Southeast ridge in the extended, with high confidence that the Pacific Ridge (PR) dominates from the end of January through February - GEFS and EPS are both showing this. What could help earlier in the period is the Alaska Ridge (AKR), since that will dump Arctic air into the heart of the continent. Overrunning events may still occur, especially northern parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, but it looks like most 00Z guidance further suppressed the storm track with the AKR pattern and Arctic cold overwhelming things later next week before a more significant warmup occurs. 

Curious to see if we'll be able keep the relatively cooler (or less warm) anomalies along the East Coast that have occurred in both December and January so far (last 60 days depicted at the bottom).

regimes_ecmwf_2025-01-11.thumb.png.0d3e9f88306a8f0dae1be32ee629c0cd.pngregimes_gefs_20250112.thumb.png.e5eafb06859d9d4abfa6d803507af423.png565333000_ScreenShot2025-01-13at7_33_24AM.thumb.png.df79626f7e208ab7142e984aeaa7d590.png

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7 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro: Brick for your sanity don’t look at either the run or the rest of this post. Please!

 The extreme of extreme SE winter storms is completely gone. Wow, what a shocker!

 Thank goodness, he seems to have gone to bed.

Of course it's gone. The models aren't going to have an historic storm every run for 10 straight days. Where's the drama in that? 

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