Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With the 1/12 12z run of the ECMWF showing the possibility of another 1"+ snowfall in Atlanta (Days 9-10), it should be noted that the last winter that saw two 1" or more snowfalls in Atlanta was Winter 2013-14. For now, that's a reference point, and I have no comments on the actual amounts shown on what was an aggressive ECMWF output. We'll see how the pattern evolves.

I thought they had 2.3 and 2.5 back in Dec/Jan 17-18

[Cheeznado]

No real ensemble support, this is as very likely much a fantasy as the 17" in Augusta that one long range model run had for this last storm.

 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I thought they had 2.3 and 2.5 back in Dec/Jan 17-18

I stand corrected. They did.

[WXNewton]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yea. It’s nice to have had a storm and immediately have something to start to track without punting 2-3 weeks 

Absolutely, that's the hardest part sometimes is when we get one, we are ready to track another one because we are still thirsty for more! 

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

No real ensemble support, this is as very likely much a fantasy as the 17" in Augusta that one long range model run had for this last storm.

 

Let us dream for 6 hours.

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

No real ensemble support, this is as very likely much a fantasy as the 17" in Augusta that one long range model run had for this last storm.

 

No bombs like that but there are a lot of members showing a storm during the period. That’s ok with me.

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

No real ensemble support, this is as very likely much a fantasy as the 17" in Augusta that one long range model run had for this last storm.

 

All models show some type of wave trying to generate in the Western Gulf there, that is such a suppressive pattern I'd be surprised if anything showed up consistently before D4-5 because most ensemble members and Op runs will want to squash the wave

[btownheel]

Good god. A foot + Murphy to Manteo with nearly 2 feet in central NC.

Obviously Operational 11 days out but frame that.


.

[StantonParkHoya]

End of days for Raleigh. We’d never recover.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

All models show some type of wave trying to generate in the Western Gulf there, that is such a suppressive pattern I'd be surprised if anything showed up consistently before D4-5 because most ensemble members and Op runs will want to squash the wave

Exactly. It’s a very strong signal. Obviously we have no clue what the system will look like but I’m becoming confident pieces will be in play for a SE winter storm. This isn’t a model hiccup like we’re used to. Pretty much all suites are locked into that timeframe and we’re seeing winter storms pop on ops most runs. In other words, the pattern recognition is there

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

End of days for Raleigh. We’d never recover.

If anyone has school kids you could go ahead and kiss their summer break goodbye 

[lilj4425]

21 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

No real ensemble support, this is as very likely much a fantasy as the 17" in Augusta that one long range model run had for this last storm.

 

Don’t you dare rain on my parade. We’re gonna get three feet of snow and like it. 

[btownheel]

If anyone has school kids you could go ahead and kiss their summer break goodbye 

And frigid temps right after. It wouldn’t go anywhere for a minute…


.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Signal is definitely there! Something to track for sure!

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

That is really good for 252

[Cheeznado]

Well, there is one GEFS member that has a foot...I agree that the overall pattern might favor some sort of snow event, just do not want to get too excited just yet.

[BooneWX]

Lmao. I hadn’t checked this thread in a few hours, saw 44 unread messages and immediately knew something dropped off a board wide Dec 2018. Confirmed. What a weenie run. 

[wxdawg10]

55 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

i would trade no snow for the next 5 winters for this to verify.  historic

[suzook]

59 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Yes, this is not happening. But if it did, it would literally kill people and cause so much damage, it's not even funny.

[CaryWx]

Any mean >1" of snow at this range that continues is worth noting.

[StantonParkHoya]

10 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Well, there is one GEFS member that has a foot...I agree that the overall pattern might favor some sort of snow event, just do not want to get too excited just yet.

Do you have RDU

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Upstate Tiger]

Just woke up from my Sunday afternoon nap.   Wife walked in and caught me looking at the Euro.  Now I have a lot of splaining to do.  

[jburns]

I suggest renaming the models.

Euro - Larry

GFS - Curly

**** - Mo

Mo is the name given to the model besides the Euro and GFS that did the worst on the previous event.

[NorthHillsWx]

41 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I mean that screams SE winter storm threat. If you had to draw a snow distribution for a significant SE storm it would be that footprint 

[StantonParkHoya]

After this last disaster, I want it showing snow in Bermuda until 48 hours out 

[Upstate Tiger]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I mean that screams SE winter storm threat. If you had to draw a snow distribution for a significant SE storm it would be that footprint 

Yep.  That setup reminds me of Presidents Day 1979.  Would love to see just one more of those in my lifetime.  

[kvegas-wx]

17 minutes ago, jburns said:

I suggest renaming the models.

Euro - Larry

GFS - Curly

**** - Mo

Mo is the name given to the model besides the Euro and GFS that did the worst on the previous event.

Just remember, you started this old man.  When thread is running wild next weekend and everyone is screaming at Curly, you might have to repost this one.  

[jburns]

2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Just remember, you started this old man.  When thread is running wild next weekend and everyone is screaming at Curly, you might have to repost this one.  

Lol. Noted.

 

PS, I probably will just let it go.