SnowGoose69 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: With the 1/12 12z run of the ECMWF showing the possibility of another 1"+ snowfall in Atlanta (Days 9-10), it should be noted that the last winter that saw two 1" or more snowfalls in Atlanta was Winter 2013-14. For now, that's a reference point, and I have no comments on the actual amounts shown on what was an aggressive ECMWF output. We'll see how the pattern evolves. I thought they had 2.3 and 2.5 back in Dec/Jan 17-18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 No real ensemble support, this is as very likely much a fantasy as the 17" in Augusta that one long range model run had for this last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I thought they had 2.3 and 2.5 back in Dec/Jan 17-18 I stand corrected. They did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Yea. It’s nice to have had a storm and immediately have something to start to track without punting 2-3 weeks Absolutely, that's the hardest part sometimes is when we get one, we are ready to track another one because we are still thirsty for more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: No real ensemble support, this is as very likely much a fantasy as the 17" in Augusta that one long range model run had for this last storm. Let us dream for 6 hours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: No real ensemble support, this is as very likely much a fantasy as the 17" in Augusta that one long range model run had for this last storm. No bombs like that but there are a lot of members showing a storm during the period. That’s ok with me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: No real ensemble support, this is as very likely much a fantasy as the 17" in Augusta that one long range model run had for this last storm. All models show some type of wave trying to generate in the Western Gulf there, that is such a suppressive pattern I'd be surprised if anything showed up consistently before D4-5 because most ensemble members and Op runs will want to squash the wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Good god. A foot + Murphy to Manteo with nearly 2 feet in central NC.Obviously Operational 11 days out but frame that.. 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 End of days for Raleigh. We’d never recover. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: All models show some type of wave trying to generate in the Western Gulf there, that is such a suppressive pattern I'd be surprised if anything showed up consistently before D4-5 because most ensemble members and Op runs will want to squash the wave Exactly. It’s a very strong signal. Obviously we have no clue what the system will look like but I’m becoming confident pieces will be in play for a SE winter storm. This isn’t a model hiccup like we’re used to. Pretty much all suites are locked into that timeframe and we’re seeing winter storms pop on ops most runs. In other words, the pattern recognition is there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: End of days for Raleigh. We’d never recover. If anyone has school kids you could go ahead and kiss their summer break goodbye 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 21 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: No real ensemble support, this is as very likely much a fantasy as the 17" in Augusta that one long range model run had for this last storm. Don’t you dare rain on my parade. We’re gonna get three feet of snow and like it. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 If anyone has school kids you could go ahead and kiss their summer break goodbye And frigid temps right after. It wouldn’t go anywhere for a minute…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said: Signal is definitely there! Something to track for sure! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: That is really good for 252 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Well, there is one GEFS member that has a foot...I agree that the overall pattern might favor some sort of snow event, just do not want to get too excited just yet. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Lmao. I hadn’t checked this thread in a few hours, saw 44 unread messages and immediately knew something dropped off a board wide Dec 2018. Confirmed. What a weenie run. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 55 minutes ago, CaryWx said: i would trade no snow for the next 5 winters for this to verify. historic 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 59 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Yes, this is not happening. But if it did, it would literally kill people and cause so much damage, it's not even funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Any mean >1" of snow at this range that continues is worth noting. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 10 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Well, there is one GEFS member that has a foot...I agree that the overall pattern might favor some sort of snow event, just do not want to get too excited just yet. Do you have RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just woke up from my Sunday afternoon nap. Wife walked in and caught me looking at the Euro. Now I have a lot of splaining to do. 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I suggest renaming the models. Euro - Larry GFS - Curly **** - Mo Mo is the name given to the model besides the Euro and GFS that did the worst on the previous event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 41 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: I mean that screams SE winter storm threat. If you had to draw a snow distribution for a significant SE storm it would be that footprint 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 After this last disaster, I want it showing snow in Bermuda until 48 hours out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I mean that screams SE winter storm threat. If you had to draw a snow distribution for a significant SE storm it would be that footprint Yep. That setup reminds me of Presidents Day 1979. Would love to see just one more of those in my lifetime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 17 minutes ago, jburns said: I suggest renaming the models. Euro - Larry GFS - Curly **** - Mo Mo is the name given to the model besides the Euro and GFS that did the worst on the previous event. Just remember, you started this old man. When thread is running wild next weekend and everyone is screaming at Curly, you might have to repost this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Just remember, you started this old man. When thread is running wild next weekend and everyone is screaming at Curly, you might have to repost this one. Lol. Noted. PS, I probably will just let it go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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