Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,729
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    rhodywakefield
    Newest Member
    rhodywakefield
    Joined

Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
 Share

Recommended Posts

ac6dc0c4839ae75bbd89fa1c0cc5380c.jpg

Anybody getting dejavu?

The ridge out west seems much more cooperative at this range. Notice how it’s going polar instead of getting tilted towards the Rockies and Alberta. Overrunning from a weak low along the frontal boundary is probably the likelihood but I would not rule out a phased bomb. It almost pulls it off later in the run but the northern stream doesn’t link up.


.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We’ve seen extreme lows like that many times in past years and they don’t pan out at this time range. I find it hard to swallow. Maybe I’m bias because I don’t want it to be that cold. I vote no. That’s not cool. 

I tend to agree. While it would be fascinating for nerds like us; that is a massive strain on power grids not used to that level of cold and the type of cold that kills people. Especially in Helene areas…


.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, suzook said:

Cold was overdone previously. Sure, its probably gonna be cold, but i highly doubt the cold the ECMWF is predicting is accurate.

I try not to look at operational solutions, especially with one extreme or the other, as being significant over a week out. They change so much from run to run and thus have little credibility.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With the 1/12 12z run of the ECMWF showing the possibility of another 1"+ snowfall in Atlanta (Days 9-10), it should be noted that the last winter that saw two 1" or more snowfalls in Atlanta was Winter 2017-18. For now, that's a reference point, and I have no comments on the actual amounts shown on what was an aggressive ECMWF output. We'll see how the pattern evolves.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, WXNewton said:

That's true, trying to not get excited when you see something like that is hard to do. However, the energy being modeled is only like 6-7 days out from working it's way towards us. 

Yea. It’s nice to have had a storm and immediately have something to start to track without punting 2-3 weeks 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With the 1/12 12z run of the ECMWF showing the possibility of another 1"+ snowfall in Atlanta (Days 9-10), it should be noted that the last winter that saw two 1" or more snowfalls in Atlanta was Winter 2013-14. For now, that's a reference point, and I have no comments on the actual amounts shown on what was an aggressive ECMWF output. We'll see how the pattern evolves.

Numbers mean nothing at this range but there is a "cold" storm there on the models

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With the 1/12 12z run of the ECMWF showing the possibility of another 1"+ snowfall in Atlanta (Days 9-10), it should be noted that the last winter that saw two 1" or more snowfalls in Atlanta was Winter 2013-14. For now, that's a reference point, and I have no comments on the actual amounts shown on what was an aggressive ECMWF output. We'll see how the pattern evolves.

"Aggressive".  You have a flair for understatement, sir.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...