strongwxnc Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 hours ago, CaryWx said: Thats a great graphic. I was trying to explain this to my kids yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Some Sibir` cold coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 whatever happens, one thing we have going for us is the snowpack to the north.... will definitely help with a cold air source, especially in marginal events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Siberian 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 16 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Some Sibir` cold coming in It isn’t often that a GEFS day 10 mean SLP is projected to be as high as 1040 mb from NW AR to W KY but today’s 6Z has exactly that (hour 225 or as of 15Z on Jan 21st): Thanks to a progged Siberian Express pattern, 25 of the 30 members then have the center of the high at 1040+ (5 at ~1050) somewhere within the area stretching from MO to TX to PA! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: It isn’t often that a GEFS day 10 mean SLP is projected to be as high as 1040 mb from NW AR to W KY but today’s 6Z has exactly that (hour 225 or as of 15Z on Jan 21st): Thanks to a progged Siberian Express pattern, 25 of the 30 members then have the center of the high at 1040+ (5 at ~1050) somewhere within the area stretching from MO to TX to PA! And according to Eric Webb, the airmass is starting at a balmy -40C as it exits Siberia 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Back before Christmas there was talk of an SSW event around late Dec early Jan. I never heard much else about it. Did it ever happen? Since we know the cold often lags 3-4 weeks, I’m wondering if the Siberian cold we’re seeing modeled has anything to do with an SSW. Thanks in advance. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Siberian The temps that translates toSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Soon…(maybe). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Back before Christmas there was talk of an SSW event around late Dec early Jan. I never heard much else about it. Did it ever happen? Since we know the cold often lags 3-4 weeks, I’m wondering if the Siberian cold we’re seeing modeled has anything to do with an SSW. Thanks in advance. TW There has been no significant SSW event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Back before Christmas there was talk of an SSW event around late Dec early Jan. I never heard much else about it. Did it ever happen? Since we know the cold often lags 3-4 weeks, I’m wondering if the Siberian cold we’re seeing modeled has anything to do with an SSW. Thanks in advance. TW It happened but it wasn’t a major or even moderate event. Back in late Dec when the models were showing those absurdly cold temps at this date, the TPV lobe that broke off was modeled to be just south of Hudson Bay. Unfortunately - (or fortunately), the Pacific jet gave the lobe a punch that sent it back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Those 0 degree temps are for the birds unless we can marry up some moisture 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: There has been no significant SSW event. In stark contrast the SPV has actually been near record breaking very strong: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 16 minutes ago, BooneWX said: And according to Eric Webb, the airmass is starting at a balmy -40C as it exits Siberia I love -40 - it doesn’t matter if you say it’s C or F!!!!! As for -40 in Siberia, isn’t that a fairly normal January cold for them? I’m thinking it’s surely below average, but nothing near a record. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We’ve seen extreme lows like that many times in past years and they don’t pan out at this time range. I find it hard to swallow. Maybe I’m bias because I don’t want it to be that cold. I vote no. That’s not cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 14 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: You can’t ask for much more at the 500mb level. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: I love -40 - it doesn’t matter if you say it’s C or F!!!!! As for -40 in Siberia, isn’t that a fairly normal January cold for them? I’m thinking it’s surely below average, but nothing near a record. TW You’re spot on. Below average for them but not record breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: If this were for Jan 20-25 instead of 19-25, the %s would be higher in the E 1/4 of the US because Jan 19th is mainly warmer than normal there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Keep hope alive, fam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 17 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: I love -40 - it doesn’t matter if you say it’s C or F!!!!! As for -40 in Siberia, isn’t that a fairly normal January cold for them? I’m thinking it’s surely below average, but nothing near a record. TW I agree. But Siberian air doesn’t at all have to be BN there to make it very cold in the US if we have the Siberian Express pattern. Often it is just normal Siberian air that leads to extreme cold in our country. Just like near normal Canadian air plunging down can make it very cold down here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Hard to ask for much more than what models are dishing out in the 8-10 day range. I am confident we will be tracking through the period. What a change from last couple winters. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Love it. I will say — when we’re done with this arctic situation through January — I’m ready for spring. Bring on the February bloom. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Canadian is barking today and getting real close,lmuch further southeast with the low/cold press at day 9. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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