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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Biggest concern in this pattern would be cold stuck west of apps. Ridge orientation out west will be crucial to make sure cold is directed east and not just into Deep South. Does look like a wetter pattern. There will be chances. The 20th timeframe seems to be the next big threat. As models show, additional cold thereafter. Could be a fun end to Jan and, dare I say, start to fab Feb???

THIS!  As much as I love them in CAD events, I hate the Apps during -EPO cold outbreaks.  It's also frustrating that for some reason the model physics can't resolve how they block low level cold air so they constantly tease us.  

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Still have a 20 percent shot at zr Sunday night. Any time I have moisture moving by underneath and cold air in place I figure I've got a  shot at frozen, and Ptree City must agree.  They are usually not as suppressed as modled when they start moving in.

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The pattern is definitely supportive but I’m taking things with a major grain of salt unless I see a 1035+ HP in the correct region. I think this pattern will favor highs in the Rockies but TBD if anything further east can pop. 

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21 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The overrunning signal late next weekend is clear as day. We’re about to spend a week gnashing teeth on where that cold front stalls. 

Would you mind explaining what you mean by "over running signal".

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