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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


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  On 1/8/2025 at 6:31 PM, olafminesaw said:

Hmmm

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus (1).png

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 Here we go again with a SE coast major snow teaser run. Like the real ones often do, this crosses S FL. The last umpteen SE coastal teasers haven’t verified but one day or year or decade the next one finally will. I’d just like to see a flake or pellet as it has been 7 years here. Granted the last one was a doozy.

 Looking ahead, today’s Euro Weekly for 1/20-26 tells me that the next shot at a widespread SE winter storm may come then: 

 H5: strong -EPO/moderate +PNA, which would allow for cross polar air/Siberian Express:

IMG_1711.thumb.webp.f11a2b3ba6ee6e9351f2882bad46ca21.webp


2m temperatures: this is a notably cold signal for still being 12 days out

IMG_1712.thumb.webp.37081a2d830dd3ea0f207c7a059baa2b.webp
 

Last but not least is the precip signal, which hints at another Gulf storm:

IMG_1713.thumb.webp.2df02a1ecb1042773da75435ffd8ffa9.webp

 

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Latest Euro weeklies for 1/20-6 keeping in mind that model consensus brings down Siberian Express high ~1/20:

IMG_1735.thumb.webp.fbec6031f9eddae78ec765bf647ef851.webp

 

Significant Gulf moisture signal is even stronger than prior run:
IMG_1733.thumb.webp.41b511d739d2f1fd1ef4d9651ea6c5ea.webp

 

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  On 1/10/2025 at 6:30 AM, GaWx said:

Latest Euro weeklies for 1/20-6 keeping in mind that model consensus brings down Siberian Express high ~1/20:

IMG_1735.thumb.webp.fbec6031f9eddae78ec765bf647ef851.webp

 

Significant Gulf moisture signal is even stronger than prior run:
IMG_1733.thumb.webp.41b511d739d2f1fd1ef4d9651ea6c5ea.webp

 

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Ptree City gives me a 20 percent chance of zr Sunday night. How do I get this to a ip/sn pattern down here, lol. Ended up with an inch of ip/sn but got some heavier rain moving in and I've been below freezing all day, so maybe I shrugged off the zr threat this afternoon too soon.

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