CentralNC Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: that's pretty impressive for ensembles. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro AI is apparently running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 hours ago, GaWx said: 12Z CMC ZR: major icestorm with 1”+ ZR ATL, Gainesville, Athens, Augusta, Columbia Sleet: @dsaurgets some And there's the devil dance that comes with sleet and zr. .8 of zr is bad, bad news. Thanks for the news, Larry, lol. Hope it's more sleet than zr. Still plenty of time for it to go all ip, or sn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 With all of the major hits in some of the ensemble panels, I think we’re eventually going to get an op run that follows suit and nearly crashes this board. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Another change I liked, across I believe all guidance, was the axis of snowfall out in Texas/Arkansas running more east/west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I know everybody was patiently awaiting the JMA but to my point - it was a major snowstorm above I85. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12z Euro AI makes it 7 runs with little to no changes. Big Miller A. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Zero complaints 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, olafminesaw said: Zero complaints Ready to walk this line for sure. Good look at the mid day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, BooneWX said: 12z Euro AI makes it 7 runs with little to no changes. Big Miller A. can you share any pics? weatherbell still doesn't have the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: can you share any pics? weatherbell still doesn't have the 12z. Obviously not a super detailed depiction but you can see the precip and eventual low track (heads towards Cape Lookout and then OTS around the mouth of the Chesapeake). . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Yes, the Canadian ensembles were nice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12Z EPS mean snow: some increase most areas vs 6Z: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z EPS mean snow: some increase most areas vs 6Z: The footprint has improved greatly, as have the totals for the mid south. Gotta hope the latter will happen further east soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 For as much as I love the ocean during summer, I loathe it during winter. No one else at our latitude has to deal with the thermal issues we do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The footprint has improved greatly, as have the totals for the mid south. Gotta hope the latter will happen further east soon. 12Z EPS: The 2m temps (along with H5 heights) dropped noticeably vs the 0Z (this as of 1PM Fri): 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 what happened to "lookout" in this forum? he was the best ever in these kind of storms? sorry for posting here but don't know where else to post 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z EPS: The 2m temps dropped noticeably vs the 0Z (this as of 1PM Fri): That front running batch Fri morning is very interesting. Could set the table for the whole event. Mostly likely ip that early as the column moistens up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 WPC's latest thinking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said: WPC's latest thinking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Growing cautiously optimistic someone near or north of I-85 minimum is going to get something they can enjoy. Still some finite details to work out but this is usually the type of system the Euro struggles with the most, due to tendencies on holding back energy. Next couple of runs I’m looking for the GFS to show a little earlier phasing and create a big dog! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 17 minutes ago, dsaur said: That front running batch Fri morning is very interesting. Could set the table for the whole event. Mostly likely ip that early as the column moistens up. Tony, Based on looking at decades worth of old maps of 850s at the time of SE winter storms, I’ve found that the sweet spot for significant sleet is +1 to +2C at 850 mb combined with good wedging. The models that aren’t delaying the precip have in or near that sweet spot for your area for most of the storm fwiw (yes it will change but you’ve got a decent shot). Colder than that is snow and warmer than that is often ZR, especially +3C+. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 For RDU, if we’re going to deal with mixing, we may as well go all in and burn the boats. Let the big dog eat even if it means less pure snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: For RDU, if we’re going to deal with mixing, we may as well go all in and burn the boats. Let the big dog eat even if it means less pure snow. Leave one lifeboat that is destined to the cliff. you might need it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Following up on my post, the 3 major models all have the same type of “look” to them. Now it’s just a matter of how the northern stream interacts with the stj and I don’t think anyone can accurately predict that at the current moment until the models resolve somewhat. We know there are some bad habits and tendencies involved but actually predicting the timing of phasing I think is still reserved until maybe 0z or 12z Wednesday imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 10 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: WPC's latest thinking I wonder why it pulsates between likely snow and likely rain over western NC. Intentional to share mixed thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 25 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: For as much as I love the ocean during summer, I loathe it during winter. No one else at our latitude has to deal with the thermal issues we do. Can we put a pool cover over top of it to block the heat flux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 15 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I wonder why it pulsates between likely snow and likely rain over western NC. Intentional to share mixed thoughts? my best guess is the high for Saturday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 WPC takes the Euro AI route 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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