Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[msuwx]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We used to have a rule forecasting for ATL and it still applies today as the GFS wedge resolution still is not great that if the GFS could see a wedge beyond 72 hours in ATL you were in big trouble.  In this case it not only sees it but has it almost to the metro.  The CMC which tends to have better resolution on that feature has the mixed precip back into Bama

Agreed. CMC is a very good model with CAD situations. It’s idea has some validity even if it might be a touch over done.

[snowmaker13]

Euro better be more amped. idk if this snow weenie can take another snowless winter. haha

[scottk]

Is there at least agreement on the timing of this event?  And if so, what is that timeline roughly?  I’ve been following the maps being posted but not sure I understand everything. 
 

I’m in NE SC (not optimistic on the chances of winter weather here) but am supposed to be in Charlotte Saturday night through Sunday, so trying to figure out the likelihood of that being a possibility…

[eyewall]

Just now, snowmaker13 said:

Euro better be more amped. idk if this snow weenie can take another snowless winter. haha

I am pretty sure we should shut down the Southeast region forum if we zero out again.

[stormwatcherJ]

2 minutes ago, scottk said:

Is there at least agreement on the timing of this event?  And if so, what is that timeline roughly?  I’ve been following the maps being posted but not sure I understand everything. 
 

I’m in NE SC (not optimistic on the chances of winter weather here) but am supposed to be in Charlotte Saturday night through Sunday, so trying to figure out the likelihood of that being a possibility…

Not an expert by any means but I've consistently seen Friday night/Sat morning to Sat afternoon being the time for most of NC. Of course this could change, lol

[neatlburbwthrguy]

30 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We used to have a rule forecasting for ATL and it still applies today as the GFS wedge resolution still is not great that if the GFS could see a wedge beyond 72 hours in ATL you were in big trouble.  In this case it not only sees it but has it almost to the metro.  The CMC which tends to have better resolution on that feature has the mixed precip back into Bama

When you say ATL in big trouble if showing wedge beyond 72 hours, that would point towards potential major ice?

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

UK with a nice hit.

 12Z UKMET has the ATL area as the jackpot with 5-5.6”. This is actually a reasonably accurate map when considering their other variables of <0C 850s, temps of 32-33F, and plentiful qpf of 0.6-0.7”.
 

 If that were to verify, it would be slightly more than they got in Jans of 2011 and 2002. The last time ATL officially got 5” was in Jan of 1992 though the northside got much more in March of 1993. So, I wouldn’t bet on this much occurring at this point, especially with other models having much less due to warmer upstairs like at 850 mb. It is a high outlier for snowfall in that area compared to other models though it has shown it on the last 3 runs: 4”, 3”, and now 5+”.

 

[BornAgain13]

12Z Euro isn't gonna be that good. To much positive tilt 

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

12Z Euro isn't gonna be that good. To much positive tilt 

Ah, there it is. Someone start the thread now. It is a "positive" tilt. 

[lilj4425]

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12Z Euro isn't gonna be that good. To much positive tilt 

Whew. Good. I was getting concerned for a little bit there I might see some wintry precip.

[olafminesaw]

Positive changes at H5 on the Euro

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

[olafminesaw]

Average out the GFS and Euro and you get a solid storm

[btownheel]

On the surface I like that look at least.


.

[SnowDawg]

Euro is actually much colder in the mid-levels than the GFS was just need better rates. I wouldn't expect as wild of run to run swings from the Euro, but at least it was a tick in the right direction.

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

[NorthHillsWx]

I will take my 1.0” of mostly snow and call it a winter. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Blend the UK and Euro and RDU is good for 2-3 inches. I’d cash out.

[NorthHillsWx]

Don’t mind H5 on Euro. Colder = Better

[olafminesaw]

Seems reasonable 

[strongwxnc]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Don’t mind H5 on Euro. Colder = Better

100% agree

 

[olafminesaw]

[Brick Tamland]

Euro ensemble mean is close to the op.

[neatlburbwthrguy]

Is it possible we are seeing models trend better/colder today as they are starting the process of picking up on fresh snow cover to the north?

[GaWx]

12Z Euro: Due to light precip moving quickly into antecedent very low dewpoint air, it has an interesting period early in this storm with mainly ZR along with a little sleet Fri morning within an area of central GA including Columbus, Macon, Sylvania, and Statesboro.

@Shack

Dewpoints at 12Z Fri: still as low as mid teens as precip moves in

 

qpf 12Z to 18Z Fri coming right into that very dry air

 
Even at 11AM, temps are still down at 32F with the precip falling along with cold mainly NE flow in EC GA (winds not off the much warmer ocean):

 

 

 Result are these precip types with an emphasis on ZR in central GA:

 

 This is mainly a curiosity now but does show things could get interesting unusually south if the precip comes in early enough there on Fri morning.
 The Icon and GFS are similar. Here’s the GFS radar simulation as of 12Z on Fri:

 

[HKY_WX]

Just from past experience, these runs have the look of a model attempting to resolve a phase or cut off low. I've seen this too many times to ignore. I wouldn't be surprised to see them slowly trend more amped on the backend as the SLP moves towards the Atlantic. It's almost impossible for the models to sort out the various Canadian shortwaves this far out. Given the Atlantic pattern, it's pretty likely this will bomb out, but as far as where remains to be seen. Could be way out into the Atlantic, or it could be off of NC. Doesn't necessarily mean we will benefit from it. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

In the CMC ensembles we trust! Some major hits in there