Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[Brick Tamland]

[wake4est]

Lol 39" to central jersey coast

[eyewall]

1/2 inch of snow with around 0.2 ice for Raleigh verbatim. The bare minimum to break the streak.

[BornAgain13]

The storm looked better but still was to strung out before it got here. Need it to phase sooner and go negatively tilt.

[GaWx]

12Z GFS ZR: significant in some areas. This would be a major winter storm for NE GA and bordering upstate SC (even Augusta and Columbia would be a close call to a big deal) as depicted with 2-3” of snow, some sleet, and 0.5” of ZR with 0.8-0.9” qpf:

 

12Z GFS qpf:

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

1/2 inch of snow with around 0.2 ice for Raleigh verbatim. The bare minimum to break the streak.

I guess we have to start somewhere. Just seems very hard to get a decent snowstorm here.

[wncsnow]

I would take that GFS run. 2 inches of snow then half an inch of sleet with some zr on top for my location. I hope the initial band of snow is stronger with a front end thump of snow.

[BornAgain13]

CMC has a stronger Low... Let's see where it goes. 

[Brick Tamland]

CMC

[olafminesaw]

Just a reminder that ZR accumulation maps aren not realistic, especially with heavy precip.

[WXNewton]

12z Canadian coming with another major hit for many. Moisture looks a lot more abundant and similar to last night's run, lots of ice still. 

[Brick Tamland]

Canadian is icy.

[BooneWX]

Yea if I see any trend, it’s that we’re moving away from a snow threat and to an ice threat. Don’t be so quick to discount Frz Rain totals. For many areas, the precip is light and falling into air that’s 25-28°. It’ll freeze much more efficiently than normal.

[eyewall]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Canadian is icy.

Lights out Columbia

[BornAgain13]

CMC is a ICE storm for many... Goes Neutral Tilt to late off the coast...

[Brick Tamland]

Canadian looks like it has more precip. Snow to ice to snow for here.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Just a few more runs and this is likely to be an all cold rain event. Wild swings though for sure. 

[wncsnow]

Much higher qpf on the Canadian

[Brick Tamland]

[BornAgain13]

Well . I know it doesn't look promising right now outside of ICE... still got several days to go to track

[Brick Tamland]

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Just a few more runs and this is likely to be an all cold rain event. Wild swings though for sure. 

If the Canadian solution is my main option, I’m fine with that. I’ll take a cold rain and the power being on. 

[BornAgain13]

Anyone have the Sleet maps for the CMC?

[Brick Tamland]

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Would be a January 2022 redux in the triad

[GaWx]

12Z CMC ZR: major icestorm with 1”+ ZR ATL, Gainesville, Athens, Augusta, Columbia

Sleet: @dsaurgets some

 

[eyewall]

The CMC does have a cold bias I believe.

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Would be a January 2022 redux in the triad

Last time we had a winter storm here.

[GaWx]

Just now, eyewall said:

The CMC does have a cold bias I believe.

The CMC has about the strongest cold bias of the major models at the surface. But the CMC/RGEM often do best in icey/CAD situations.

[Brick Tamland]

Looks and sounds like the rain here is mixing with sleet and freezing rain. I can see some ice on the trees.