GaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 44 minutes ago, wncsnow said: UK might be a nice compromise The 0Z UK has changed for ATL from all snow (4” on 12Z) to mainly sleet I believe based on 850s mainly +1 to +2. With a qpf of 0.4” and temps near 32, that would mean a little over 1” of sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 0Z GEFS: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 0Z Euro 72 hour qpf: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 0Z Euro 24 hour snow: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 0Z Euro has teens for lows some areas of SE like Atlanta on 1/17-18. I’ll believe it when I see it. A couple of old runs had Atlanta down in the single digits for this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 0Z EPS 24 hour snowfall ending 1/11: significantly more than the next to nothing 0Z Euro op but a bit less than recent EPS runs: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Not at all surprisingly, only ~20% of the Euro ensemble members are about as limited on snow as the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Most guidance overnight and this morning has trended towards a weak sheared out system with some light precipitation in the Carolinas and VA. Let's see what 12z offers Edit : 6z GFS has moderate snows in northern NC/eastern NC and Southern VA , as the system got its act together very late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 06z GEFS. The signal is still there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Those were some ugly model runs last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 i would take cold rain over those massive ice storms lastnight. IMO I'm too chicken without powers. haha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The models showing that no matter which way you spin it, decent snowstorms in the Carolinas have become more and more difficult to produce. It seems like it is nearly impossible for the right ingredients to match up. Without ensemble support, or consistent OP support, this is likely another coulda shoulda woulda been storm 20 years ago. Expect warmer trends to a cold rain for most or a suppressed look soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: A half+ inch of freezing rain is a disaster. I’d rather we have no storm at all. Will be a cold rain in a few runs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Its either going to be big snow or big rain… theres no in between.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: What happened? looks like totals plummeted? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 RAH pointed out that this is an in situ situation without a well anchored high. Let’s wait for more runs to see if this somewhat verifies or if it is trending warmer. It may well be as we have seen this situation play out before. Always going to be a fight here in the southeast.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 What a disappointing set of overnight runs after what the GFS did at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 18 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I'll take that over cold rain any day. The weather here is miserable this morning. If I can see a couple of inches of snow I will be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Spire weather has a Apps cutter with a enormous ice storm for CAD areas in their 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Definitely don’t love that NC has to wait for the UL energy to swing through on the back side to get their snow portion here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said: Spire weather has an Apps cutter with an enormous ice storm for CAD areas in their 0z run. I don’t even know what this means. No models show an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Yeah that was definitely awful overnight. Time to draw the shades if this doesn't work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: I don’t even know what this means. No models show an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I don’t even know what this means. No models show an apps runner. No other models show an apps runner..........yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The 06z GFS was a lot better than the 00z, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just went on the mid atlantic thread. UGH, I am sick. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 minutes ago, suzook said: Just went on the mid atlantic thread. UGH, I am sick. LOL Yep they got half the forecast in some spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Those were ugly runs no doubt, but it’s all noise at this point. I can’t recall a time tracking weather where I’ve seen individual pieces to a storm oscillate a thousand miles on the exact same model just 6 hrs between runs and proceed to wash, rinse and repeat every single run. We are nowhere close to the final solution - hell, we don’t even had an agreement within model suites to help us look for trends toward/away others. This is going to be a marathon, drink your Gatorade and eat your wheaties. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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