Brick Tamland Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Big time comma head snow for CNC at 150 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 DC-NYC completely obliterated to the point of natural disaster 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Ends up being a heck of a storm on the GFS. A little of everything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 DC 2010 vibes with their foot tonight followed by 2-3ft Saturday/sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Ok I’ll say this. That’s the best run of the GFS in a long time. Why? Less interaction with the LP near the Canadian border. Better antecedent HP location. Negative tilt (obviously). There are lots of things to love about this evenings run even tho it’s primarily a mid Atlantic/NE run for snow. Big improvements in the overall setup. Just a run but that’s what we want 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Would really like to get back to southern slider solutions. That is a mid-atlantic storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Ok I’ll say this. That’s the best run of the GFS in a long time. Why? Less interaction with the LP near the Canadian border. Better antecedent HP location. Negative tilt (obviously). There are lots of things to love about this evenings run even tho it’s primarily a mid Atlantic/NE run for snow. Big improvements in the overall setup. Just a run but that’s what we want Yep, if it phased 6 hours later we’d be jumping up and down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Would really like to get back to southern slider solutions. That is a mid-atlantic storm. Yep, and that is not a trend we want to see continue in NC, south. VA is still very much in play with either option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Would really like to get back to southern slider solutions. That is a mid-atlantic storm. The timing of the system is just ideally awful on the 18Z GFS for the wedge areas of GA/SC etc...there is a window where the storm could come out earlier or later and you get mostly snow or mostly rain but the timing is perfect where the high is beginning to slide into an area where it can wedge those regions for a severe ice storm 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The Op does not have support from the GEFS for what it’s worth. GEFS was a very nice look for most. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The Op does not have support from the GEFS for what it’s worth. GEFS was a very nice look for most. The GEFS was a better hit then the 18 GFS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WOOF WOOF. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: WOOF WOOF . Big increase from the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 16 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The Op does not have support from the GEFS for what it’s worth. GEFS was a very nice look for most. Yes it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, BooneWX said: WOOF WOOF . Why does your clown map show 26 inches here but Brick Tamland‘s shows 3.2 inches for the same system with both using the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Why does your clown map for the GEFS show 26 inches here but Brick Tamland‘s show 3.2 for the same system? The one with 26 is probability of snow over 4 inches, not actual snowfall. Trust me, I got excited with that one at first as well! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, ragtop50 said: The one with 26 is probability of snow over 4 inches, not actual snowfall. Ahh…that makes more sense. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Trend is Our friend https://x.com/tropicalsaiel/status/1876040353398370777?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Is 18z Euro stuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 John Homenuk 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 John Homenuk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, SnowDawg said: Would really like to get back to southern slider solutions. That is a mid-atlantic storm. I kinda disagree. Southern slider is a “safer option” but if trends from this run continue this is how we’d get our “big dog”. This was more about track than airmass issues. I mean even with this track it locks RDU below freezing for the event. I guess to your point, 18z is the go big or go home option, but there are a lot of pieces to like about the phase and negative tilt, along with HP placement and cold being established before the storm without screaming southerlies at 850 like we’d seen the last few days. 18z also shows a lot of potential following the storm this weekend. The ridge placement out west looks a lot better for the next system and it delivers cold through the run. While I know it’s likely way overestimated, this doesn’t look like a cutter pattern. One run, I know 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 19 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Do you know how that looked compared to the op? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro AI and GFS look similar but hard to tell much since we don’t have many detailed Euro AI maps. This is the FOURTH run in a row that the Euro AI is producing almost the exact same look with little to no change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 10 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Euro AI and GFS look similar but hard to tell much since we don’t have many detailed Euro AI maps. This is the FOURTH run in a row that the Euro AI is producing almost the exact same look with little to no change. Stubborn people often wrong. I guess stubborn AI could be as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, jburns said: Stubborn people often wrong. I guess stubborn AI could be as well. Could be. It’ll be interesting to look back and see if it was the first to sniff the correct end game or first to miss. I don’t think we have a trend in any direction yet, but I do think there are more depictions closer to its solution as of recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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