Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

If this thing is gonna be amped up, it's all gonna come down to how the 50/50 trends. Confluence will be our friend here both on track and thermals. Without it we need to go back to the weak overunning looks from yesterday afternoon.

 There are exceptions (like 3/1/09 which was mainly from a bowling ball upper low and 3/93) and variations but I’ll normally want a weak Gulf low passing ~ENE offshore the N Gulf coast and then going over the general vicinity of the north-central FL peninsula out into the Atlantic for the best shot at a major snow or sleet ATL-AHN corridor among other areas per history. Of course there has to be cold enough air to the north. Sometimes it can go from the Gulf to over FL panhandle to SE GA and work if the air is cold enough.

 The following map is the mean SLP map for winter storms that includes 2/12/14, 1/9/11, 2/12/10, 1/2/02, 1/18/92, 1/7/88, 1/22/87, 3/24/83, 1/12/82, 3/2/80, 2/18/79, 1/9/62, 3/11/60, and 2/26/52:

[BooneWX]

Euro AI is a major hit across the south, especially Tenn, NC and the upstate

[gamecockinupstateSC]

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Sleet is typically around a 4:1 ratio. Most I have seen in one event is around 3 inches back on Long Island in the 90's

 

ATL had 4.2” of nearly pure sleet on both 2/17-18/79 and 1/7/88.

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Euro AI is a major hit across the south, especially Tenn, NC and the upstate

For ATL (city itself) as depicted it is closer to mainly sleet or rain with 850s of +1C:

 

Surface 34F, so not ZR as depicted:

qpf:

 AI continues with its unusual warm sfc wind flow..here it’s from SE, which disagrees with just about all other models (maybe it being AI is a handicap) and thus I think it won’t verify this way:

 

Sfc: doesn’t look right. By the way, ATL has no major winter storm on record with mainly SE winds.

[StantonParkHoya]

We’ve got to get this SLP down in the big bend area off the coast

[Brick Tamland]

43 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Euro AI is a major hit across the south, especially Tenn, NC and the upstate

Can you give more specifics?

[SnowDawg]

I think I have seen a tweet from some met in the last couple months saying that the Euro AI was bad with surface depictions, but was scoring well on large scale setups, but I can't remember now who it was.

[GaWx]

18Z Icon 120 is ~100 miles S of 12Z 126. Things like this can end up making a big difference down the road.

[jburns]

2 hours ago, Brick Tamland said:

WRAL is talking about a wintery mix Sunday night, too.

[GaWx]

18Z GFS not looking encouraging sorry to say based on 135. Tracking too far NW for great setup. let’s see how much wintry there is.

[StantonParkHoya]

Even more amped and north and warm

[franklin NCwx]

Phasing in new mexico.  This will be a congrats Wisconsin soon

[GaWx]

Still wintry precip though

[GaWx]

 

Good snow (couple of inches upstate SC to W NC)

[jburns]

Just now, GaWx said:

Still wintry precip though

Today the earth is at its solar perihelion.  So we have that going for us.

[GaWx]

[StantonParkHoya]

It’s raining at Snowshoe WV this run if that adds some color 

[kvegas-wx]

Local forecast for the Triad did a complete 180° flip as well.  Went from snow/ice to all rain, no transition.  Couple more days of model runs and this casserole will be fully baked. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Love how we go from pipe busting cold on the models to 40’s followed by rainstorms during the advertised period

[GaWx]

18Z GEFS: significant increase many areas, especially N GA (keep in mind this excludes ZR and any sleet Tony and others might get):

 

 

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Love how we go from pipe busting cold on the models to 40’s followed by rainstorms during the advertised period

E US cold bias of most models strikes again. Hoping they won’t warm even further the next few days.

[SnowDawg]

This storm up north trended south the last couple days after trending north before, maybe we can get the same luck. Also is showing a bit of CAD which one can hope is under-modeled at the time. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[dsaur]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

ATL had 4.2” of nearly pure sleet on both 2/17-18/79 and 1/7/88.

Best storms ever, and several good sleet storms down here  too. Just got to be in the band that runs thru n central Ga. Had some bad zr storms though, too. Always on the edge down here when one of these comes across.  It's going to get cold according to my point cast, and now  with sn, zr and rain.  And a mix is pretty standard for these...unless it busts due to the devil line I 20 barrier.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

It’s a springtime rainstorm rest of the way

[Shack]

To my eye, the 18z Euro coming in much less amped than the GFS in the gulf.  Looks like it might not want to merge that Great Lakes Low like the GFS if it continued past 144hrs, too. HP in Mid Atlantic is a few ticks higher as well.

[BooneWX]

Looking at the individual GEfS members. Few - none agree with the OP.

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Looking at the individual GEfS members. Few - none agree with the OP.

Is that a good thing or a bad thing?