WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 We can work with the Euro depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12Z EPS: similar to 0Z EPS/12Z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Euro is playing plinko,went from no storm at all yesterday to a weak low in the FLA panhandle last night to a low now in western NC today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12Z EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z EPS Panel 32 is one of the most equitable winter storm depictions I’ve ever seen in the south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Just for laughs.. the GFS has a CAD system in the long long range Of course it does. Meanwhile, the storm for next weekend is still all over the place on the models. At least the storm is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 26 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z EPS: similar to 0Z EPS/12Z GEFS At least it's better than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I’ve never seen an area get screwed like CNC has the last 3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 24 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I’ve never seen an area get screwed like CNC has the last 3 years The climate is shifting for sure. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: The climate is shifting for sure. Central TX has been a glacier the past 5 years and they have worse climo than us. Arkansas and Mississippi are getting snow from this one. We just suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: Central TX has been a glacier the past 5 years and they have worse climo than us. Arkansas and Mississippi are getting snow from this one. We just suck. Yeah I never thought it would be this bad. We could easily have to wait for year 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 We are on track for a few good snow events over the next couple of weeks. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 If this thing is gonna be amped up, it's all gonna come down to how the 50/50 trends. Confluence will be our friend here both on track and thermals. Without it we need to go back to the weak overunning looks from yesterday afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Central TX has been a glacier the past 5 years and they have worse climo than us. Arkansas and Mississippi are getting snow from this one. We just suck. Some of these traces I believe are hail as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 19 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yeah I never thought it would be this bad. We could easily have to wait for year 4 Could this just be the new normal? I feel like the climates have shifted NC to a climate similar to SC winters of old. Virginia is more like NC used to be. Snow line and cold winters have shifted north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 WRAL is talking about a wintery mix Sunday night, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Could this just be the new normal? I feel like the climates have shifted NC to a climate similar to SC winters of old. Virginia is more like NC used to be. Snow line and cold winters have shifted north. Can we please bifurcate the climate change discussion from forecasting? There’s a whole forum for the former. Thanks. 3 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 WFMY Model for Triad: Begins as snow Sunday around 1:00 til evening, rain overnight, snow returns Monday late afternoon into evening [img] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12z has been bad for us almost every day of this week only for 18z and 0z to pull us back. See everyone in a few hours! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for the following counties from 1 p.m. Sunday to 7 p.m. Monday: Rockingham County Surry County Wilkes County Stokes County Caswell County Yadkin County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/3/2025 at 10:26 AM, dsaur said: .3 is way better than I've had in years, so I'm good with that, lol. Even .3 of zr would be more than a nuisance, but it would be something frozen. And mix in some sleet, and I could still go sliding. That's about what I got in 05 and I had a heck of a good time on it and that's the last time I could sled on concrete. Nearly 20 years, Larry, 20 years. That just ain't right! Hey, Tony. Saw you lurking. (off topic for forum, but couldn't send PM) My daughter lives in St. Louis. I've been giving her updates on tomorrow's system for a week and she is now preparing for a Mega-Sleetfest. Man, that's a lot of little frozen balls that are gonna fall in her neighborhood. (cue the jokes) Almost 3" if you believe the HRRR Back on topic: Ugh. At the operationals. Anyone have a DGEX to spark joy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Can we please bifurcate the climate change discussion from forecasting? There’s a whole forum for the former. Thanks. Isn't mentioning climate change a part of forecasting? Isn't previous analogues to be discussed for set ups and potential impacts? Isn't climate change a potential to change that discussion. We cannot just say that this happened this way in the past so expect this now if the climate is altered to a different state? So, it is worth bringing up as a wrench in forecasts based on previous expectations when models show something we used to see as a positive sign. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for the following counties from 1 p.m. Sunday to 7 p.m. Monday: Rockingham County Surry County Wilkes County Stokes County Caswell County Yadkin County A Warning for Watauga, Ashe and Wilkes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Isn't mentioning climate change a part of forecasting? Isn't previous analogues to be discussed for set ups and potential impacts? Isn't climate change a potential to change that discussion. We cannot just say that this happened this way in the past so expect this now if the climate is altered to a different state? So, it is worth bringing up as a wrench in forecasts based on previous expectations when models show something we used to see as a positive sign. No. It belongs in another discussion. That's why it has it's own space. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, Shack said: Hey, Tony. Saw you lurking. (off topic for forum, but couldn't send PM) My daughter lives in St. Louis. I've been giving her updates on tomorrow's system for a week and she is now preparing for a Mega-Sleetfest. Man, that's a lot of little frozen balls that are gonna fall in her neighborhood. (cue the jokes) Almost 3" if you believe the HRRR Back on topic: Ugh. At the operationals. Anyone have a DGEX to spark joy? Hey, Shack! Hope she sleds because she's going to have perfection for it. I've seen that, or close, 4 times and they are my favorite storms by far. I think this is a long from settled and there will be lots of surprises, good and bad. Right now it's 47 even with a hot sun in the heat of the day in north central Ga., and more cold air coming, so I think it's about the moisture and if a storm, the waa...not the available cold. All we need is 32 low enough in the column. I'm figuring to be in the several county mostly sleet/snow band......or very sad rain, if it's a fizzle. I was 25 last night so fine for frozen with a cold ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 31 minutes ago, Shack said: Hey, Tony. Saw you lurking. (off topic for forum, but couldn't send PM) My daughter lives in St. Louis. I've been giving her updates on tomorrow's system for a week and she is now preparing for a Mega-Sleetfest. Man, that's a lot of little frozen balls that are gonna fall in her neighborhood. (cue the jokes) Almost 3" if you believe the HRRR Back on topic: Ugh. At the operationals. Anyone have a DGEX to spark joy? Sleet is typically around a 4:1 ratio. Most I have seen in one event is around 3 inches back on Long Island in the 90's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 37 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for the following counties from 1 p.m. Sunday to 7 p.m. Monday: Rockingham County Surry County Wilkes County Stokes County Caswell County Yadkin County Can confirm roads are brined. Somebody is optimistic! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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