Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 10:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:17 PM Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Raleigh NC 507 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2025 Franklin NC-Vance NC-Durham NC-Warren NC-Person NC-Wake NC- Granville NC-Orange NC- 507 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2025 ...A AREA OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN PERSON...VANCE... SOUTHERN WARREN...NORTHEASTERN ORANGE...GRANVILLE...NORTHEASTERN WAKE...DURHAM AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EST... At 503 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster showers producing a burst of snow and graupel along a line extending from 8 miles north of Oxford to 7 miles northeast of Rougemont to 6 miles north of Hillsborough. Movement was southeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Raleigh, Durham, Henderson, Oxford, Roxboro, Creedmoor, Louisburg, Wake Forest, Butner, and Franklinton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Friday at 10:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:22 PM 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: 18Z GFS through 129: nothing noteworthy. Slightly colder push. Maybe will be colder when precip finally arrives in SE. It’s going to be a rain storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 10:26 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:26 PM 6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It’s going to be a rain storm Good chance. But 18Z GFS is actually colder than last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 10:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:27 PM Overrunning setup on GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted Friday at 10:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:28 PM Just now, BooneWX said: Overrunning setup on GFS This is actually the best it has looked in some time set up wise. Now let's see if trends pull it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Friday at 10:29 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:29 PM Just now, BooneWX said: Overrunning setup on GFS Yeah it just didn't do much other than the coastal plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 10:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:30 PM 18Z GFS snow: and it’s all snow rather than IP/ZR since 850s are below 0C. Sfc low about 300 miles south of 12Z GFS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted Friday at 10:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:38 PM GFS is also quicker than its previous run. Something to keep an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted Friday at 10:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:40 PM 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: 18Z GFS snow: and it’s all snow rather than IP/ZR since 850s are below 0C. Sfc low about 300 miles south of 12Z GFS. It looked like it had nothing to do with the low in the SW also. Just got pinched off. I would take this look seeing how it was all snow. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Friday at 10:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:46 PM Phase almost entirely missed but still just enough energy to briefly inject some gulf moisture. The northern stream didn't really dig SW which made the cold press a little more direct into the SE. My guess is that the only path to bigger snow without temp issues is for the baja low to come east and meet the northern stream, not vice versa like 12z showed. If it digs hard SW then a brief ridge tries to pop in the east and we warm. That being said, I'd happily take a widespread light snow as shown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted Friday at 10:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:47 PM Just now, SnowDawg said: Phase almost entirely missed but still just enough energy to briefly inject some gulf moisture. The northern stream didn't really dig SW which made the cold press a little more direct into the SE. My guess is that the only path to bigger snow without temp issues is for the baja low to come east and meet the northern stream, not vice versa like 12z showed. If it digs hard SW then a brief ridge tries to pop in the east and we warm. That being said, I'd happily take a widespread light snow as shown. And anyone would not take a light snow event is lying to oneself. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 10:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:55 PM 8 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: And anyone would not take a light snow event is lying to oneself. Furthermore, for the SE and especially compared to the last few years, is that really all that light? 0.5-1.5” over a pretty large area. Not anywhere near major but significant. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Friday at 10:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:59 PM 1 minute ago, GaWx said: Furthermore, for the SE and especially compared to the last few years, is that really all that light? 0.5-1.5” over a pretty large area True true. I suppose it largely depends where you live and what you're used to. Despite the near 3 year drought, at nearly 2000 foot elevation I still see anything under 2 inches or so as light. Maybe time for new expectations though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Friday at 11:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:05 PM Despite the largely missed phase the baja low is still helping us out by setting up a moisture feed off the pacific. This may honestly be the look to pull for, with less chances of failure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted Friday at 11:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:21 PM 5 hours ago, wncsnow said: Unfortunately my negativity about wintry weather is usually correct. I wish I was wrong this time, and maybe I still am. But it begs the question, would you rather be right or happy? Not sure who should do it, but maybe a different thread for Sunday/Monday system so old people like me don't get confused on which short waves we are tracking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Friday at 11:29 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:29 PM 8 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Not sure who should do it, but maybe a different thread for Sunday/Monday system so old people like me don't get confused on which short waves we are tracking? I’m not really sure what we’re tracking for Sunday/Monday to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Friday at 11:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:35 PM Man the Sunday Monday system is so tight gradient... The EURO and UK absolutely smoke @Buddy1987... And central VA.... Those models have ticked south a bit... The other models are more north.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted Friday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:39 PM 39 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: True true. I suppose it largely depends where you live and what you're used to. Despite the near 3 year drought, at nearly 2000 foot elevation I still see anything under 2 inches or so as light. Maybe time for new expectations though... Time for a new decade 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted Friday at 11:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:44 PM 56 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: And anyone would not take a light snow event is lying to oneself. I'd be happy with snow flurries to be honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted Friday at 11:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:51 PM 3 hours ago, GaWx said: More on average strength of Miller A lows causing major Atlanta snow or sleet, which is a rather modest 1008 mb Complete list of major 32 ATL SN/IP caused by Miller A's: estimate of lowest SLP while in GoM/near Gulf coast (other 7 weren't Miller A) (sub 1000 bolded) Interesting. Here are the Miller A’s in the last 23 years. Four, or 1 every 3.75 years. 2/12-13/14: 1003 1/9-10/11: 1008 2/12/10: 997 1/2-3/02: 1007 And here are the Miller A’s from the first 23 years of your info. Eleven, or one every 2.09 years. Quite a difference. 2/11-12/1899 1017 2/15-16/1895 1017 2/11-12/1895 1012 12/24-5/1894 1020 (barely discernible) 1/18-19/1893 1008 12/3-6/1886 1013 2/12-15/1885 1005 1/23/1885 1003 1/7-8/1884 1010 12/29/1880 1009 1/1/1877 1003 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted Saturday at 12:00 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:00 AM 53 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Despite the largely missed phase the baja low is still helping us out by setting up a moisture feed off the pacific. This may honestly be the look to pull for, with less chances of failure. I especially like the teaser at the bottom of this... "Everything can change in a heartbeat!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted Saturday at 12:06 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:06 AM 21 minutes ago, suzook said: I'd be happy with snow flurries to be honest. I would be happy with that too. At least it would be something to look at!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Saturday at 12:21 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:21 AM Had a brief rain/snow mix in Raleigh 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted Saturday at 12:23 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:23 AM 15 minutes ago, KChuck said: I especially like the teaser at the bottom of this... "Everything can change in a heartbeat!" Dude. This is the Southeast forum not the Ivy League Forum. Great Expectorant is more our speed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted Saturday at 12:28 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:28 AM 2 minutes ago, jburns said: Dude. This is the Southeast forum not the Ivy League Forum. Great Expectorant is more our speed. Sorry but can't help it. My daughter is a supervisor over a group of curriculum editors in Greenville, SC with a masters in English and when she comes home for Christmas, well, you can figure out the rest of the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Saturday at 12:36 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:36 AM 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: Man the Sunday Monday system is so tight gradient... The EURO and UK absolutely smoke @Buddy1987... And central VA.... Those models have ticked south a bit... The other models are more north.. I’ve already told myself to not get disappointed so I’ve fully accepted an ice storm. We get significant snow it’ll be one of the best surprises in my mind. I had just posted in the Mid Atlantic forum I couldn’t believe that we’re still in the game for a significant snowfall. I thought gfs actually helped that cause. Off topic of Sunday/Monday system we had a snow squall warning. I was making a delivery to Shawsville and it was absolutely dumping snow. Got back to Salem and it had whitened everything except the pavement. Was nice to see that. Feels like it’s been awhile. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 12:37 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:37 AM Supposedly there were some flurries in town earlier. I didn't see any, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 12:40 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:40 AM 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: I’m not really sure what we’re tracking for Sunday/Monday to begin with Snow in VA and maybe some mixing in northern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSUGrad Posted Saturday at 12:42 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:42 AM Wet fat flakes splatted on my windshield for about 2 minutes in Raleigh at the St Mary's / Glenwood intersection. A block later it had stopped. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted Saturday at 12:50 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:50 AM 21 minutes ago, KChuck said: Sorry but can't help it. My daughter is a supervisor over a group of curriculum editors in Greenville, SC with a masters in English and when she comes home for Christmas, well, you can figure out the rest of the story. No- please elaborate…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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