BooneWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Too warm this run south of VA and east of Tenn. Really weird setup with a HP near the Bahamas feeding warm air into the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12Z GFS low track coming in further north…not good for snow potential for good portion of SE. ATL-AHN get no SN/IP through 189 and hardly even get any ZR! Trends other than on Icon not good recently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 lol. I swear if this run is too warm. We went from record cold for the 1/6 storm to warm/wet. Might as well do the same for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I still don't buy this solution. I just don't agree with the low being buried in the SW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Met1985 said: I still don't buy this solution. Weird solution for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Mainly ZR and mixed P for RDU on the 12z GFS op run for the system next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 So bizarre 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Snow Storm per GFS for mby and northern NC and Southern VA. Mixing issues further south. Main take away is the storm signal is still there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Weird a** depiction this go around. I won’t completely discount it but until we see ensembles with a storm that far north and amped, I’m having a hard time buying it. We’re not quite in the range where OPs should take preference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Snow Storm per GFS for mby and northern NC and Southern VA. Mixing issues further south. Main take away is the storm signal is still there. we need it 60 miles farther south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12Z GFS has low move from Pensacola to Savannah. That’s too far north unless the air to the north is very cold, which it isn’t due to a relatively weak high moving offshore and warming SE surface winds, not CAD. Remember the runs bringing the low over central FL peninsula? This is much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Weird a** depiction this go around. I won’t completely discount it but until we see ensembles with a storm that far north and amped, I’m having a hard time buying it. We’re not quite in the range where OPs should take preference. Ensembles have been trending warmer and less wintry as I’ve shown with GEFS maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I think it's the LP over the great lakes ruining the thermals. Need that to be a stout HP instead! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I think it's the LP over the great lakes ruining the thermals. Need that to be a stout HP instead! That surface low over SW GA, especially with no wedge, isn’t going to get the job done for much of the SE in most cases. Too far north. Need something like Icon has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Sleet storm here verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Snow Storm per GFS for mby and northern NC and Southern VA. Mixing issues further south. Main take away is the storm signal is still there. Need euro onboard to start looking more at it. Don’t want to get my hopes up. Been a long time since we got even a moderate storm. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Is it spring yet? JK. These models are driving me insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12Z CMC opposite of 12Z GFS: very cold and dry 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Check out the Canadian. No storm and cold. Has lows in NC on Saturday morning in the teens - even 10 degrees in Charlotte. Needless to say, alot of the needed elements are there and alot to be sorted out in the coming week. I'd say all options are on the table from cold and dry to somewhat mild and wet. TW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Started at zero hour and watched this fill in through hour 246. Map was nearly blank at the beginning. Certainly a lot of this is noise, but neat to see almost the entire country covered. That would be one heck of a snow pack! I hear there is good sledding in northern Mexico this time of year... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 The UK is getting close for northern NC for system 1. It has trended south each run... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 13 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: Started at zero hour and watched this fill in through hour 246. Map was nearly blank at the beginning. Certainly a lot of this is noise, but neat to see almost the entire country covered. That would be one heck of a snow pack! I hear there is good sledding in northern Mexico this time of year... Folks would take this and run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: The UK is getting close for northern NC for system 1. It has trended south each run... Wow I'm not sure what the UK see. Nothing else shows this... I like it but don't believe it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 By the way, the end of the CMC was setting up for possibly something significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: The UK is getting close for northern NC for system 1. It has trended south each run... It does have a colder/further south track, but it doesn't seem to be handling the thermals correctly. That 12"+ strip should be mostly sleet/ZR based on other models depictions of the mid level temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12Z GEFS much more suppressed than 12Z GFS as of 168 hours meaning it may be a too far north outlier: 12Z GEFS mean: 12Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Hey Tony, great to see you posting! Hope all is well with you and of course your world famous moles, too! Thanks, Larry. Doing fine here, and hope Sav gets something out of whatever happens It's a sign of how bad things have been that we are living and dying each day on fantasy storms way out in way out land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 54 minutes ago, suzook said: No ZR please. Anything but that. Yep, I hate the z monster too, but to get sleet which is my favorite, I have to dance with zrain. That damned waa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Compare 12Z GEFS low positions (mainly much further south) with much further north GFS: GEFS members: only 21, 17, 1, and 3 as far north GFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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