Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[suzook]

So now everyone is throwing in the towel because of a few bad model runs???? Lets talk when the next few models pull us all back in again.....

[NorthHillsWx]

12 minutes ago, suzook said:

So now everyone is throwing in the towel because of a few bad model runs???? Lets talk when the next few models pull us all back in again.....

It’s not the ops I’m worried about. It’s the trends on ensembles. Not one positive trend in last 48 hours even when there were some big dogs tossed around on the ops

[olafminesaw]

[KChuck]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 If the 1/10-1 Miller A were to not return, I’d consider it a classic case of can kicking unlike 1/6. I don’t like the trends at all but it’s still early enough for the trend to reverse and 1/10-1 to return as it has been only 12 hours on the GFS among others and that’s still 8 days away.

[KChuck]

1 hour ago, suzook said:

Still below normal temps through mid January, don't lose hope. After the 3rd week though? It might be over for any snow chances for most of us.

Brick, is that you??? 

[BooneWX]

Salt in the wound is Sunday trending towards a severe weather event. Hilarious to live here truly. The only thing we can count on is scorching heat and a cold Memorial Day. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Yea if the next two weeks don’t work out it’s likely we’ll have to wait for February to reload. Fab February to the rescue 

[BooneWX]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Yea if the next two weeks don’t work out it’s likely we’ll have to wait for February to reload. Fab February to the rescue 

I’ve been as optimistic as ever the past few weeks, so don’t take this a doomcasting, but Feb is absolutely cooked. I don’t buy any cold for the month outside of transient 2-3 day shots. We’re likely going to traverse the warmest phases of the MJO, and eventually enso is going to knock on our door. La Niña February’s mean a visit from our good friend, the SER. If we don’t score the next 2-3 weeks, you might as well get the mower tuned up because an early spring is coming. 

[gamecockinupstateSC]

6 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Hate to say it but the 0z runs were as ugly as a room full of gamecocks. 
 

Will still be waiting on the next suite as things change quickly in the winter.  

You mean everyone wearing that Ugly Orange.

[olafminesaw]

At least our friends in New England aren't getting it instead

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

At least our friends in New England aren't getting it instead

Disaster season for New England as a whole 

[NorthHillsWx]

I just checked but RDUs snow drought record would be broken if we do not receive measurable snow before April 8. Given the bar for measurable snow is so low and it’s only Jan 2 (have ALL of peak climo to go), I’d say it would still be unlikely that the record will be broken. But with each passing week those odds increase of breaking it. I’d lean towards it becoming likely (>50%) to break the record if we reach February 1 without snow. 

[wncsnow]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I just checked but RDUs snow drought record would be broken if we do not receive measurable snow before April 8. Given the bar for measurable snow is so low and it’s only Jan 2 (have ALL of peak climo to go), I’d say it would still be unlikely that the record will be broken. But with each passing week those odds increase of breaking it. I’d lean towards it becoming likely (>50%) to break the record if we reach February 1 without snow. 

The record is already broken in a lot of places in WNC.

[WNC_Fort]

Where’s my daily dose of @Met1985optimism? 

[olafminesaw]

Not the worst

[Met1985]

3 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

Where’s my daily dose of @Met1985optimism? 

I think that we should just sit back and watch things play out. I know the trends haven't been great but a lot can happen from now and then. A lot of unknowns currently with the pattern. I'm still optimistic and it can just take a few runs to show something worth while.

[olafminesaw]

20 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I think that we should just sit back and watch things play out. I know the trends haven't been great but a lot can happen from now and then. A lot of unknowns currently with the pattern. I'm still optimistic and it can just take a few runs to show something worth while.

I agree, although it always feels like a good look a week out always fizzles, but when we lose the threat a week out it never seems to swing back the other way. Super frustrating, although generally speaking a reflection of climo more than anything 

[tarheelwx]

FWIW, both the 12Z NAM and RGEM have dewpoints in the single digits in CAD areas early Sunday afternoon with wet bulbs 25-30.  Having said that, there's no wedge signature or HP in the northeast.  I suspect the wet bulb will move up quickly as precip arrives.  At this stage, it looks like even Snowshoe might be mainly ice.  

TW

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

At least our friends in New England aren't getting it instead

Not now but, they will later. No issue for them. 

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

FWIW, both the 12Z NAM and RGEM have dewpoints in the single digits in CAD areas early Sunday afternoon with wet bulbs 25-30.  Having said that, there's no wedge signature or HP in the northeast.  I suspect the wet bulb will move up quickly as precip arrives.  At this stage, it looks like even Snowshoe might be mainly ice.  

TW

Yea the CAD signal with the HP has certainly diminished. Looking more and more like an in situ event. But to your point, the airmass ahead of the system is plenty cold to lock in a wedge in the most favored areas

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

I think that we should just sit back and watch things play out. I know the trends haven't been great but a lot can happen from now and then. A lot of unknowns currently with the pattern. I'm still optimistic and it can just take a few runs to show something worth while.

What really hurt is what John and I touched on in the Tn Valley sub, The Western Ridge has nearly broke down and is displaced too far West . Models originally had that centered over the Rockies. That allows this System to climb further North than it would have west of us.  If snow pack existed to our North the Baroclinic Zone would set up further South and the Storm would probably travel farther south and we'd still got hit as well. So, couple flaws fouled us up with this one. 

     I'm with you in still being hopefull.. Just not as enthusiastic of an old fashioned January, Winterwise, as I was.

[StantonParkHoya]

An aside to the discussion but you’ve got to be a real winter wx sicko to hope for ice

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

What really hurt is what John and I touched on in the Tn Valley sub, The Western Ridge has nearly broke down and is displaced too far West . Models originally had that centered over the Rockies. That allows this System to climb further North than it would have west of us.  If snow pack existed to our North the Baroclinic Zone would set up further South and the Storm would probably travel farther south and we'd still got hit as well. So, couple flaws fouled us up with this one. 

     I'm with you in still being hopefull.. Just not as enthusiastic of an old fashioned January, Winterwise, as I was.

If the sw didn’t get buried back into the Baja, we’d be in the game. It’s discouraging because it’s so so close.

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

If the sw didn’t get buried back into the Baja, we’d be in the game. It’s discouraging because it’s so so close.

Yeah, timing of it coming out did too but, larger synoptics plays a Part in that.  

[Daniel Boone]

7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

An aside to the discussion but you’ve got to be a real winter wx sicko to hope for ice

Agree.

[GaWx]

6Z GEFS mean not good at all for 1/10-1 (can kicking):

[StantonParkHoya]

Snowing in Dallas, less suppressed so far on 12z GFS

[olafminesaw]

Yep, good trend

[SnowDawg]

That Miller A threat is still close on razor thin margins, it'll all come down to exactly how all three pieces of energy interact with one another. And frankly at this lead, the ensembles may be a little too coarse in their resolution to lean on. Just need to wait it out, but acknowledge cold/dry is the easier outcome to get.

Side note as I'm just looking at it, but selfishly I'd take the 6z GFS in a heartbeat. 

[wncsnow]

GFS is trying for the 10/11th system but not quite there