Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[wncsnow]

6 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

You’re looking at 1/14 not the 1/10-1/11 storm. 

I'm quite aware of that thank you though 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

18Z GEFS snowfall: less vs recent runs for most and the run overall was significantly warmer

Significantly warmer is an understatement. Op did not reflect that 

[StantonParkHoya]

18z Euro has the Monday deal so far north that DC mixes at the end. SLP into PA

[wncsnow]

11 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

18z Euro has the Monday deal so far north that DC mixes at the end. SLP into PA

Yeah it's going way north. The writing is on the wall for that one. I doubt we get one drop/flake pellet of frozen out of it. Let's hope the north trend exists for wave 2 as well. 

[tarheelwx]

Icon followed the 18z Euro - way north for #1.

TW

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Significantly warmer is an understatement. Op did not reflect that 

You can see it visually in the HDD image below. Look how much less cold 1/10-12 have gotten since the 6Z GEFS run. For example, the 18Z run is a whopping nearly 5 HDD warmer on 1/11 vs the 6Z! Regardless, it is still quite cold and it can easily reverse back to how cold it was. With the combo of indices we have, I feel confident that the intensity and duration of the cold will maintain being impressive.

[wncsnow]

GFS no dice for wave 2..

[SnowDawg]

GFS much closer to the 12z run than 18z. Just a bit too much interaction with the cutoff energy in the SW caused the phase to just miss.

[gamecockinupstateSC]

GFS has wave 2 with snow in Houston and winter precipitation into LA.  Suppressed but the run was better, and I honestly would rather have this look this far out and let the NW trend do its thing.  Hopefully the suppression will not hold from here out. 

[wncsnow]

You can always tell how things are going with the amount of new posts... 

Not a lot good to say right now other than cold will be nearby/over us. Signs are that the PNA is going to start dropping towards neutral or negative near mid month though.. 

[GaWx]

 It would be nice if there could be a decent amount of cold surface high pressure maintaining itself to the north in the OH Valley but on the 0Z GFS it instead collapses rapidly when turning that way vs the respectable high that is retained there on the 12z (GFS run with big snowstorm):

12Z GFS: 1029 mb high

 

0Z GFS: only ~1022 mb high

[GaWx]

0Z Euro: not good for SE snow lovers as 2nd shortwave is so weak that there’s no surface low.

[Ji]

0Z Euro: not good for SE snow lovers as 2nd shortwave is so weak that there’s no surface low.

Terrible run

[LakeNormanStormin]

It is over.

Cold rain and I will like it.

[GaWx]

 If the 1/10-1 Miller A were to not return, I’d consider it a classic case of can kicking unlike 1/6. I don’t like the trends at all but it’s still early enough for the trend to reverse and 1/10-1 to return as it has been only 12 hours on the GFS among others and that’s still 8 days away.

[SnowDawg]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 If the 1/10-1 Miller A were to not return, I’d consider it a classic case of can kicking unlike 1/6. I don’t like the trends at all but it’s still early enough for the trend to reverse and 1/10-1 to return as it has been only 12 hours on the GFS among others and that’s still 8 days away.

Agreed, and at least grand scale all the pieces were still there they just missed connecting by very small margins. Funny how at 12z we got the fantasy run but the GEFS got worse, but tonight the OP misses and the ensemble actually improved marginally.

[lilj4425]

Last one out turn off the lights. Oh and take @Ji with you.

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Agreed, and at least grand scale all the pieces were still there they just missed connecting by very small margins. Funny how at 12z we got the fantasy run but the GEFS got worse, but tonight the OP misses and the ensemble actually improved marginally.

Indeed, I was just getting ready to post the 0Z GEFS snow, which I’d say has improved even more than marginally vs 18Z from Charlotte/Greensboro to N GA (~1” higher) and is also higher than 12Z/close to 6Z there:

**Edit: However, this would still be can-kicking on the 0Z GEFS because the increases are for after 1/10-1.
Next up: Euro ensemble. Then lights out!

@SnowDawgto check what I added in an edit about the 0Z GEFS can kicking 1/10-1.

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Indeed, I was just getting ready to post the 0Z GEFS snow, which I’d say has improved even more than marginally vs 18Z from Charlotte/Greensboro to N GA (~1” higher) and is also higher than 12Z/close to 6Z there:

**Edit: However, this would still be can-kicking on the 0Z GEFS because the increases are for after 1/20-1.
Next up: Euro ensemble. Then lights out!

@SnowDawgto check what I added in an edit about the 0Z GEFS can kicking 1/10-1.

Compared to both the 0Z GEFS (quoted above) and the 12Z EPS, the 0Z EPS has a good bit less snow in most areas:

Night night!

[Upstate Tiger]

Hate to say it but the 0z runs were as ugly as a room full of gamecocks. 
 

Will still be waiting on the next suite as things change quickly in the winter.  

[NorthHillsWx]

Models have lost the cold air. Ingredient 1 has disappeared 

[WNC_Fort]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Models have lost the cold air. Ingredient 1 has disappeared 

I was just coming to ask where the cold air has gone? We went from historic/pipe bursting, to long-sustained cold to… marginal at best?

[strongwxnc]

I was just coming to ask where the cold air has gone? We went from historic/pipe bursting, to long-sustained cold to… marginal at best?

Next week looks to be a little below average for area. Highs in the lower 40’s and lows in the lower 20’s.


.

[suzook]

Still below normal temps through mid January, don't lose hope. After the 3rd week though? It might be over for any snow chances for most of us.

[eyewall]

Well it was fun while it lasted.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Well it was fun while it lasted.

Is it even possible to get snow here anymore?

[eyewall]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Is it even possible to get snow here anymore?

I am leaning towards no.

[WNC_Fort]

It really is starting to feel like if you live below 3000 ft, south of VA, and east of the Apps something has changed with the climate to where snow and ice are too difficult to get the combination of ingredients together. 

We should have paid more attention to the ice storm drought. Was probably our first sign of problems.

[tarheelwx]

I think one big problem we have now is the lack of moisture.  Since Helene, we have been exceptionally dry.  What moisture we have received has come through in large amounts - but only about twice a month.  October had no significant precip events and October had just one.  Many winters it is common to have a system every 3 to 4 days.  Now we're at least running about once per week (system this past Sunday morning and the next system comes in late Sunday).  So the dry pattern we're in now only exacerbates the problem.  As for the cold air - I fully agree.

TW

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I think one big problem we have now is the lack of moisture.  Since Helene, we have been exceptionally dry.  What moisture we have received has come through in large amounts - but only about twice a month.  October had no significant precip events and October had just one.  Many winters it is common to have a system every 3 to 4 days.  Now we're at least running about once per week (system this past Sunday morning and the next system comes in late Sunday).  So the dry pattern we're in now only exacerbates the problem.  As for the cold air - I fully agree.

TW

Definitely not dry in western NC