NorthHillsWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 What’s wild is this pattern SUCKS for New England. So after all the hype from some of the Mets up there, it looks just about like a curtain call until after the pattern breaks down. Definitely a southern storm or nothing deal. Wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 What’s wild is this pattern SUCKS for New England. So after all the hype from some of the Mets up there, it looks just about like a curtain call until after the pattern breaks down. Definitely a southern storm or nothing deal. WildWith all politeness…. Screw em. It’s *our* time.. 5 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Per the avg of the last 12 runs of the 4 member CFS ens, much of the SE is forecasted to be near 10 F BN for the two week period Jan 8-21! The SE is forecasted to be the coldest area anomalywise on the entire globe through that period! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12z AI a classic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: 12z AI a classic. Looks a lot like the GFS. Foot+ for much of the board 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: Euro has to kick that Baja low a little further east or the shortwave dropping down has to tick west at day 8/9.Either might work but if you get both well....woof. Something like this....12z AI 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 24 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: 12z AI a classic. AI for the win! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The 12Z Euro AI has qpf of 0.8-0.9” during 1/10-11 for much of N GA, NW 1/2 of SC, and much of NC. 850s never get above 0C meaning all snow (a whopping ~8-9”) at Rome, Gainesville, GSP, Charlotte, and RDU along with places in between, which would easily be the most widespread big SE snowstorm in many years. In ATL, AHN, AUG, and CAE, 850s do get just above 0C during a part of this implying sleet likely during part of it. 6 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 GFS looks suppressed this run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: GFS looks suppressed this run so far It’s all going to come down to how it interacts with the sw diving down occurs. Does the energy eject and partially phase? That’s how we get the big dog outcomes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: It’s all going to come down to have it interacts with the sw diving down occurs. Does the energy eject and partially phase? That’s how we get the big dog outcomes On most of the suppressed runs it comes down in front of it and suppresses it. I think we need it to dive down deeper and slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 GL low kills BL, precip stays suppressed. Gross run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 55 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 12Z Euro AI has qpf of 0.8-0.9” during 1/10-11 for much of N GA, NW 1/2 of SC, and much of NC. 850s never get above 0C meaning all snow (a whopping ~8-9”) at Rome, Gainesville, GSP, Charlotte, and RDU along with places in between, which would easily be the most widespread big SE snowstorm in many years. In ATL, AHN, AUG, and CAE, 850s do get just above 0C during a part of this implying sleet likely during part of it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18z dumpster fire run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Close enough. Storm signal is still there. Not much else to takeaway at this point. Just playing the waiting game for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 18z dumpster fire run lol Was it though? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Was it though? Perspective I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Was it though? Mark this down as a positive post from you! Lol obviously the models are having trouble with the PV and all the energy flying around. There should be some big solutions coming through unless all the energy just gets sheared out. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18z ICON and 18z GFS have a moderate to major ICE event for this weekend for northern NC/Southern VA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z ICON and 18z GFS have a moderate to major ICE event for this weekend for northern NC/Southern VA We’ve moved on from that wave. Does nothing for us. 10/11/12 in focus. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 20 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Was it though? Lol, totally different shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 https://youtu.be/L_Vr2AOeulY?si=GGqzuojwqvaPboqr looks like Chris Justus posted an update ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I mean this could still be interesting for the CAD areas. I wouldn't totally whiff on it yet.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 29 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Was it though? Can kick begins 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I mean this could still be interesting for the CAD areas. I wouldn't totally whiff on it yet. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk I’ve been barking up the CAD tree for days on this one. Not our snowstorm but this is likely a warning level event for CAD zones. Wouldn’t surprise me to see advisory level ice to triangle 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’ve been barking up the CAD tree for days on this one. Not our snowstorm but this is likely a warning level event for CAD zones. Wouldn’t surprise me to see advisory level ice to triangle Ice Storm north of 40 and south of 64...through the TN/KY corridor... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’ve been barking up the CAD tree for days on this one. Not our snowstorm but this is likely a warning level event for CAD zones. Wouldn’t surprise me to see advisory level ice to triangle Well and we know when CAD sets in it's hard to break. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Mark this down as a positive post from you! Lol obviously the models are having trouble with the PV and all the energy flying around. There should be some big solutions coming through unless all the energy just gets sheared out. When I'm positive you know somethings cooking 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18Z GEFS snowfall: less vs recent runs for most and the run overall was significantly warmer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Was it though? You’re looking at 1/14 not the 1/10-1/11 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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