wncsnow Posted Wednesday at 05:34 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:34 AM Let's do this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Wednesday at 05:37 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 05:37 AM Euro is not trending south anymore. Slightly north of 18Z and similar to 12Z. Not much frozen precip in NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted Wednesday at 05:39 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:39 AM 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Let's do this You're on the hook now brother! 2025 is going to be a winter to remember! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Wednesday at 05:40 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 05:40 AM 1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said: You're on the hook now brother! 2025 is going to be a winter to remember! I'm hoping to bring some reverse mojo! We have to score eventually right?! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Wednesday at 05:44 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:44 AM 0z Euro is a Central VA and North special. That's where the consensus seems to be for the best snow for now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted Wednesday at 07:52 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:52 AM I think I need to take a weather break. Too disheartening to watch models. Hope someone here can help us reverse trends and pull one in. I’ll be back to this forum someday but, it’s just not something that brings me joy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Wednesday at 08:34 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:34 AM 0Z Euro ens mean: most areas have more than on 12Z with largest increase C GA/SC to 1.1-1.5” range with all of that falling starting 8 days from now; that’s a lot of snow showing up that far out for that area: @jburns@buckeyefan1please pin this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Wednesday at 09:29 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:29 AM Euro is downright ugly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Wednesday at 10:28 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:28 AM 58 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Euro is downright ugly But the 06z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Wednesday at 10:34 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:34 AM 4 minutes ago, yoda said: But the 06z GFS Ejects the SW earlier and we get a quicker phase. Jan 10 miller A with snow through the Deep South and most of Carolina’s. Haven’t seen a storm track like that in many a moon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Wednesday at 10:36 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:36 AM It’s crazy how much models have backed off on the cold, regardless of snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Wednesday at 10:40 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:40 AM This is noise at this point but as modeled at 6z, that GLL really messes with the BL temps for the Jan 9-11 system. Not enough to rain but it cuts off the arctic feed we’d been seeing in many previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted Wednesday at 11:01 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:01 AM Would a mod pin this please? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Wednesday at 12:09 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:09 PM Unless something trends better today, with the Euro being very consistent on that stripe of snow in central/N VA, I would think it would be a wintry mix/rain for most of everyone else... I hope it trends better today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Wednesday at 01:16 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:16 PM More often than not when models depict an arctic surge, the heart of the cold air goes west of the apps. They aren’t tall, relatively speaking, but that dense cold air has a hard time bleeding east. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted Wednesday at 01:33 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:33 PM The models have now switched to the outcome I anticipated. First wave is too far north and the second wave is suppressed. Snow is becoming more and more of a rare event here in the southeast. It was already something that required near perfect setups. We are already on borrowed time this winter with models showing the cold pattern breaking up after these two chances. Fab Feb? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Wednesday at 01:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:35 PM Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: The models have now switched to the outcome I anticipated. First wave is too far north and the second wave is suppressed. Snow is becoming more and more of a rare event here in the southeast. It was already something that required near perfect setups. We are already on borrowed time this winter with models showing the cold pattern breaking up after these two chances. Fab Feb? I don’t like February as a snow month around here — of course we can — but that month is on a march toward spring with every day getting exponentially longer and with a higher sun angle. By end of month, it gets really difficult with BL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Wednesday at 02:30 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:30 PM First storm is a wash other than some onset ice in CAD regions. I think we all knew it would arrive there eventually - it looked like a miller b from the start. Tough to make those setups work at the front end of the pattern without an anchoring high to the north. I remain as optimistic as ever about the 8th-12th period. I don’t see any reason to change course on that. Clear signal, just no clear answers, which is fine at a week+. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Wednesday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:34 PM 4 minutes ago, BooneWX said: First storm is a wash other than some onset ice in CAD regions. I think we all knew it would arrive there eventually - it looked like a miller b from the start. Tough to make those setups work at the front end of the pattern without an anchoring high to the north. I remain as optimistic as ever about the 8th-12th period. I don’t see any reason to change course on that. Clear signal, just no clear answers, which is fine at a week+. I agree. If one of us had been in a coma since November and woke up and checked the models, I think they'd be thrilled at what they saw. I do think models backing off from the 8th-12th a bit should give us some pause, but overall the pieces are there to make something happen and that's all we can ask for in a Nina (or near Nina) winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Wednesday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:38 PM EPS [emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]" probability for RDU through [emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]/[emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]] went down to [emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]%. Extended out to [emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]/[emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]]] it is [emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]]]%. With that said, the probability of a dusting is way higher ([emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]%) in the near-term. As desperate as we are, a dusting would be exciting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Wednesday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:39 PM I agree. If one of us had been in a coma since November and woke up and checked the models, I think they'd be thrilled at what they saw. I do think models backing off from the 8th-12th a bit should give us some pause, but overall the pieces are there to make something happen and that's all we can ask for in a Nina (or near Nina) winter My thought: I truly think our models suck. I mean, bottom barrel garbage, useless trash 90% of the time. A product of poor funding and nobody outside of the weather community seeing the need for improvements these past several years. It won’t shock me at all if we can’t even sniff a big dog in advance on the models anymore (prob likely tbh) and it equally won’t shock me when and if we get closer to a threat that they all jump on board 72 hrs out. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted Wednesday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:46 PM I need some pretty colored model runs to look at and obsess over... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Wednesday at 02:54 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:54 PM 6 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said: I need some pretty colored model runs to look at and obsess over... For 90% of us it's all about the dopamine hit of the big model run, not the snow itself (insert change my mind meme format here) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted Wednesday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:59 PM Yes the models AND ENSEMBLES (for specifics) are pretty poor in the longer range…over 5 days. I think in reality, the models are just as good, if not better than they’ve ever been. When they miss a forecast or don’t show what we want, people say the models suck. So for the last 3 years, the perception is that the models suck since there was nothing ever to track. I know that last year we didn’t have a single storm show up for more than maybe a couple runs well out past 5 days - it would pop up one time and then it was gone. So there was never anything to track and whattaya know, we got nothing. So that’s not bad modeling, but good. As for the period coming up, some have built sky high expectations that will be hard to meet. I think if we were realistic, we wouldn’t put much, if any, weight on a model out past 120 hours. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Wednesday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:19 PM 6Z GEFS mean: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Wednesday at 03:24 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:24 PM 12z ICON is a hair south... Major ICE Storm in the CAD areas in NC/VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted Wednesday at 03:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:28 PM Whatever happened to the SSW? Did it ever occur? TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Wednesday at 03:55 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 03:55 PM GFS still inching north each run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted Wednesday at 03:58 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:58 PM 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS still inching north each run Will be a PA north storm in a few runs at this rate. Wild stuff. We went from great set up for a few chances to poo poo quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted Wednesday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:00 PM 2 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Fab Feb? And there it is!! We have a winner on January 1st! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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