January Discobs 2025

[aldie 22]

23.4 

[stormy]

7 hours ago, CAPE said:

So you think that means everyday will be above "normal" from tomorrow through the 21st then?

There will be ups and downs but that will be an average according to the CPC.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 hours ago, stormy said:

The latest CPC package keeps us firmly above normal temperatures through Feb. 21.

How often have they actually been right 2-3 weeks out this winter? Seem to remember them predicting an AN January at first, lol

[wxdude64]

26.6 degrees this morning, MUCH warmer than previous mornings. A bit of snow melted yesterday, should be some more occurring later today. 

[dailylurker]

Looks like 60's are showing up on my point and click. Looks like a break in winter is coming. If anyone is interested in having a commercial or residential building cleaned, the rates are their lowest of the year. Do you have an old, ugly patio or deck? Don't replace it, restore it. We have 25 years of experience and are licensed and insured. 

Already 32. Today feels like a spring morning compared to what we've had.

[aldie 22]

27 this morning here's what's left of my snow heading into the great melt.

[nw baltimore wx]

21 hours ago, katabatic said:

That's a good question. I went to the DCL State Park boat ramp and just walked out on the lake. A lot of people took their snowmobiles out on the lake via that ramp as well. There was nothing there about the ice - but there has to be something, somewhere because in this day, you can't just have trial and error as people fall through and sink to the bottom and go oopsie, not thick enough yet.

After I asked, I googled it and the best I could find was a dnr page on ice fishing, but it was just general information and not a source for current status. There must be a local source somewhere up there. Maybe that tackle shop on the lake, Johnnys?

[WVclimo]

MRB is at a -7.3° departure for the month.  Based on the forecast, should finish around -4.5 to -4.8°.  Other sites:

BWI  -6.3°

IAD   -6.0°

DCA  -5.7°

[WEATHER53]

22 for a low but rising temps after 3am. It’s odd that I’m 39 now and cloudy And no wet spots.  Night after night of terns and singles must have the surface really cold 

 

[mdhokie]

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

After I asked, I googled it and the best I could find was a dnr page on ice fishing, but it was just general information and not a source for current status. There must be a local source somewhere up there. Maybe that tackle shop on the lake, Johnnys?

I don't think there really is a source. Its trial and error. I don't walk out there unless I see tents and snowmobiles. The ice fishers will normally drill holes while they walk further out to get a read on how thick the ice is. This guy explains it pretty well:

The ice isn't uniform either, so any sort of "report" would have to be very specific and updated. With the snow it makes it even worse because the snow actually insulates and there is a layer of slush under the snow and over the ice.  

Edit to add another video that shows different tools and explains the whole snow/ice/slush/ice layering:

 

[katabatic]

3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

After I asked, I googled it and the best I could find was a dnr page on ice fishing, but it was just general information and not a source for current status. There must be a local source somewhere up there. Maybe that tackle shop on the lake, Johnnys?

I did the same thing and didn't come up with anything 'official' either. I'm really surprised there was nothing at the boat ramp given it is a state park. There are some Garrett County Facebook pages I follow and a few posters here and there comment on ice thickness but that's little more than one casual observer's take on the situation. 

[MN Transplant]

45.  Been a while.

[stormy]

13 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How often have they actually been right 2-3 weeks out this winter? Seem to remember them predicting an AN January at first, lol

We will all do well to remember that no human and no model is consistently right 2 - 3 weeks out. Once in a while somebody scores by guessing but that is the luck of the draw.

I am on record believing that February will not be anomalously as cold as January and March will probably trend colder.  Mother Nature likes to get cold in the eastern states this winter.

This CPC thing is only an educated guess on Jan. 25.   If I had to nit pick, I would doubt the precipitation maps more than the temperature maps. Unfortunately, we are having another dry winter and I doubt a wet pattern the first 3 weeks of February.

If the CPC or models had been consistently correct with precipitation predictions for the past 6 months, Severe Drought would not be on D.C.'s southern doorsteps right now.

[aldie 22]

Smells like vomit in the DC area for some reason 

[87storms]

January thaw has arrived.

[WEATHER53]

High of 45 but ice still not ready to be shoveled up. Very little melting shaded area. Temp fallen very quickly from 45 at 2:50 to 39 at 5:20 

[MN Transplant]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

High of 45 but ice still not ready to be shoveled up. Very little melting shaded area. Temp fallen very quickly from 45 at 2:50 to 39 at 5:20 

The shade/sun difference is more exaggerated than usual.  

[WEATHER53]

Down to 34.5 at 8 pm a 5 degree drop from 6pm.  Snowpack and frigid nights effect 

 

[aldie 22]

28.2 hard to believe on this day last year we hit 80

[ThePhotoGuy]

Even after a high of 48, my front yard is still 95% snow covered. Ready for the warmer temps to melt more of this snow/ice! It was nice for a while but sick of it by now. 

[ThePhotoGuy]

Sunset reflecting on an icy Patapsco River last night.