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January Discobs 2025


George BM
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1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Forecast low of 12F.   Low of 17F.

Betting today's forecast high of 28F far exceeds that.

My point and click is 34. I'm betting close to 40 if it stays clear. I've been constantly +3-4 above forecast for the past couple of weeks. It's been beautiful but definitely not anything unusual. 

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29 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

My point and click is 34. I'm betting close to 40 if it stays clear. I've been constantly +3-4 above forecast for the past couple of weeks. It's been beautiful but definitely not anything unusual. 

Years ago this would be considered very average winter weather.  I'm curious how the models are consistently busting on the cold.

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Yesterday I went down to OC and walked the entire length of OC on the beach. 10 miles. The beach was covered in snow where the ocean doesn't make it. Today I hiked here locally. The trails at Bacon Ridge were a sheet of ice. The packed snow became thick ice. The temperature today stayed around 30 which made it nice.

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1 hour ago, jonjon said:

Another WSW for the highlands.  Looks like up to 10" more.

This is a potent lil system with good lift and a respectable amount of moisture to wring out overhead. You'll do very well, as usual. Hit 15.1 for a hi here today and now down to 11.7. Winds are dying down, so temps will probably tank early and then slowly rise as the clipper gets closer. 

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Thursday
Snow, mainly after 11am. High near 26. West wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. 
Thursday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. West wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
 
Canaan killing it this year 
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45 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

At 8:30 I have 26 and drive to couple spots that are in shade all day and car thermo at 24 

Finishing this little drive around, It’s still a lot of snow over in most places around Kemp Mill down here in the holler at the head of the crik.

i got a 21 briefly by stables and 23 now in the driveway. That’s 3 degree drop in 45 minutes 

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
419 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2025

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ053-054-505-506-526-
527-161530-
District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek,
Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton,
Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park,
Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn,
South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus,
Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon,
Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Reston,
Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia,
Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Purcellville, Leesburg,
Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge,
Lake Ridge, and Montclair
419 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2025

...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for this
afternoon and evening commute. A period of snow is POSSIBLE (a 30
to 50 percent chance) this afternoon and evening across the
Baltimore and Washington metro areas with up to a half inch of
accumulation on area roads.

If this threat does materialize this afternoon and evening rush-
hour, many roads could quickly turn snow covered. This could lead
to dangerous traveling conditions on untreated surfaces.

If commuting this afternoon and evening, be aware of the
POSSIBILITY of travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for
extra travel time.

Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode.
 
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Ah yes, WC of -35... toasty

 

Beyond Sunday, the main story will be the cold. At the surface, a
1050+ hPa high will form to the east of the Canadian Rockies, then
track southward along the eastern slopes of the Rockies, eventually
reaching the Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley as a 1040+ hPa high
by Tuesday night into Wednesday. An area of low pressure will
simultaneously deepen and stall out to the east of Hudson Bay during
that time. Such a configuration will enable a pure Arctic airmass to
be drawn directly southward out of Northern Canada into the eastern
two-thirds of the United States. Strong cold advection will ensue
locally behind Sunday`s system, with temperatures crashing Sunday
night into Monday, and remaining brutally cold through Tuesday and
Wednesday. All signs point to this being the coldest three day
stretch of weather in 5 years. Using Dulles as a proxy for the area,
similar average temperatures to what are being forecast with the
upcoming event last occurred 1/30-2/1 2019, and 1/5-7/2018.

Daytime temperatures are forecast to hold in the teens and lower 20s
for most on Monday, with single digits above/below zero in the
mountains. Winds will gust to around 20-35 mph through much of the
day, making wind chills -15 to -35 in the mountains, and -5 to 15 at
lower elevations. Air temperatures will drop back to below zero
roughly west of I-81 Monday night, with single digits above zero
further east. Wind chills should reach below zero in nearly all
locations Monday night, with central Virginia potentially being the
lone exception. Slightly lower daytime temperatures and slightly
lesser winds will result in similar wind chills during the daylight
hours again on Tuesday (-15 to -35 in the mountains, -5 to 15 at
lower elevations). Temperatures will once again drop into the single
digits above/below zero Tuesday night. Some very slight warming is
expected by Wednesday, with temperatures forecast to reach into the
teens and lower to middle 20s. Winds will also be a bit lighter,
enabling wind chills to make it into the single digits above/below
zero at higher elevations, and teens at lower elevations. Cold
Weather headlines will likely be needed at times Sunday night
through Tuesday night.
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