January Banter 2025

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I've been thinking, this is a very interesting period coming up starting tomorrow through next week.  To me, it's kind of reminiscent of mid-February 2015.  The event tomorrow reminds me of the burst of snow and squalls we got late in the day of Feb. 14, a quick 2" within an hour or so where I'm at.  That was along the leading edge of an Arctic blast, it got very cold  and windy in a big hurry that evening.  It was really cool!  That was followed by some extremely cold air the following week.  That's the last time I remember it being so cold around here like that, and next week looks to be similar.  Maybe the event tomorrow will be a bit more than the one in 2015 here in the metro DC area, if we're lucky!

[wasnow215]

31 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I'm far from an expert on AI or anything like that, but here's my understanding:  The "regular" ECMWF model is based upon dynamic and thermodynamic equations (speaking very simply here), with a set of initial conditions and observations to start from.  Those equations are evaluated through time to obtain forecasts.  The AI version is based upon some collection of past "training data" (such as previous atmospheric conditions and observations, and perhaps analogues), which are sort of "regressed" or "correlated" against an independent set of observed data (think of it as a highly sophisticated multi-linear regression, in a way).  Others can chime in, I hope this is reasonably accurate of a description albeit kind of simple.

Very helpful Ty!!

[aldie 22]

Yeah this one is starting to show the classic signs for the rain/snow line. Hope I'm wrong 

[dailylurker]

24 hours out and we don't know much more than we did 5 days ago. I sware we live in a simulation. It has to be lol

[T. August]

@North Balti Zen I think you break the verified warning streak with this one. @mappy too.

[North Balti Zen]

9 minutes ago, T. August said:

@North Balti Zen I think you break the verified warning streak with this one. @mappy too.

Genuinely think so. Fingers crossed. Hoping for you too. 

[mappy]

17 minutes ago, T. August said:

@North Balti Zen I think you break the verified warning streak with this one. @mappy too.

 

7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Genuinely think so. Fingers crossed. Hoping for you too. 

I think we will do just fine. Maybe not PSU level, but warning level snow at the very least 

[North Balti Zen]

Yep, I think so too. 

[vastateofmind]

I like the profile pic change, @stormtracker. As the dude responsible for social media at my small org, I struggle to come up with new and exciting ways to engage folks on MLK's birthday on those platforms. Biggest challenge at times is to find/utilize a pic of the man that hasn't been OVER-used before...so, semi-stealing your pic to squirrel away for next year's posts.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, vastateofmind said:

I like the profile pic change, @stormtracker. As the dude responsible for social media at my small org, I struggle to come up with new and exciting ways to engage folks on MLK's birthday on those platforms. Biggest challenge at times is to find/utilize a pic of the man that hasn't been OVER-used before...so, semi-stealing your pic to squirrel away for next year's posts.

Same here.  Always like @stormtracker's annual tribute to Dr. King.  And the one he uses is a bit different than the photos of him that you usually see.  He looks pretty young in that one?  Wonder where/when that was taken.

[ThePhotoGuy]

Went to an icy Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (near Cambridge) yesterday on the Eastern Shore. It was a beautiful day with the warm temps. I was surprised how much snow was still on the shore. 

[nj2va]

Let’s go Texans!  I like Mahomes but my goodness, I’m over the Chiefs.

[yoda]

On my way to see my Penguins win tonight 

[aldie 22]

Just got back from Wegmans because I don't want to grocery shop tomorrow...let me tell you the combo of it being Saturday plus a possible snow and a Washington playoff game really made that place a madhouse 

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

On my way to see my Penguins win tonight 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I'll take pictures of Crosby scoring

[Kay]

18 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

Went to an icy Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (near Cambridge) yesterday on the Eastern Shore. It was a beautiful day with the warm temps. I was surprised how much snow was still on the shore. 

Great shot! Looks like the eagles may have just enjoyed some lunch.

Always amazed how tough waterfowl are in the winter. I know they're built for it but still. Just casually swimming around in ice water.

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, vastateofmind said:

I like the profile pic change, @stormtracker. As the dude responsible for social media at my small org, I struggle to come up with new and exciting ways to engage folks on MLK's birthday on those platforms. Biggest challenge at times is to find/utilize a pic of the man that hasn't been OVER-used before...so, semi-stealing your pic to squirrel away for next year's posts.

Go for it dude!  I tend to use the same one each time, but I switch up every know and then.

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Go for it dude!  I tend to use the same one each time, but I switch up every know and then.

Yeah I love the  profile pic too bro!!    Gotta honor The late great Doctor Martin Luther King!!

[wasnow215]

26 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Yeah I love the  profile pic too bro!!    Gotta honor The late great Doctor Martin Luther King!!

Went to the MLK memorial in Atlanta last year -it was epic

[wasnow215]

Anybody going against chalk for the four games?
 

I think Kansas City handles their business by two scores against Houston. Washington needs to be +2 to win in Detroit in the turnover battle.

[Deck Pic]

58 minutes ago, yoda said:

On my way to see my Penguins win tonight 

ovie is getting close I think?

[Deck Pic]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Anybody going against chalk for the four games?
 

I think Kansas City handles their business by two scores against Houston. Washington needs to be +2 to win in Detroit in the turnover battle.

I like the 3 home favorites to win.  Toss up in Buffalo.  Only game I like ATS is tonight is WFT.  I'd probably take the 8.5.

[wasnow215]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

I like the 3 home favorites to win.  Toss up in Buffalo.  Only game I like ATS is tonight is WFT.  I'd probably take the 8.5.

It does seem a little high. It could be a seven point game.

[yoda]

7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

ovie is getting close I think?

22 away from being the leader I believe 

[wasnow215]

On another note it doesn't seem like the icon is a very good weather model. It's not gonna be me lol but anybody ever thought about starting a thread where we just grade the models from storm to storm at least inside of three days?

[aldie 22]

That was top 5 worst anthem performances in my opinion...tried too hard

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

That was top 5 worst anthem performances in my opinion...tried too hard

lol! I literally just got on my 17-year-old boy for judging her and then your comment pops up. I had to apologize!

 

[aldie 22]

Just now, wasnow215 said:

lol! I literally just got on my 17-year-old boy for judging her and then your comment pops up. I had to apologize!

 

She has a good singing voice just too much riffing

[mappy]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

She has a good singing voice just too much riffing

I think it was nerves actually